Last week is here.
I was 4-0 outright, 2-2 ATS; a moment of frustration, I had NO +7.5, had I written the prediction the following day I would have gotten 8.5 and covered. It's a minor lament, I'm 5-2-1 ATS for the playoffs so far, one shouldn't complain.
AFC Championship
Denver -4.5 NE
I've been planning on taking the Patriots; the line opened at 7 and the public has driven it down to 4.5.
At that point, I sell. Denver's been solidly better this year and even with the many Bronco defensive injuries I don't think NE scores enough points to beat them.
Super Bowl 47 1/2
SF +3.5 Sea
I'm also picking the Niners to win outright.
That's not supported by the metrics I use; if the Carolina game was exactly flipped, with the Panthers dominating us to the degree we beat them, I would not consider taking Carolina to win this game. I picked Seattle/Denver to be the Super Bowl before the season and before the playoffs.
But pick against the Niners in the NFC Title game - nope; I don't use the "eye test" - but that's what this is; without Harvin I don't see Seattle's offense with the ability to exploit our corners, which is really the only defensive issue we have. Our front 7 can get push against the middle of that Seattle line; we held Rodgers under 200 yards passing and shut out the Panthers in the second half - add in Wilson throwing for a hundred yards at home against that Saints secondary, and I think it unlikely they're able to blow us out.
Making it a close game - adding Crabtree (there isn't yet a lot of concern reported about his health, but if he doesn't practice Wednesday I'll start to be worried) really changes our offense, a team hasn't taken away Crabtree and Boldin and Davis at the same time. If there's a team who could it's Seattle; they're the best team in the league - but we don't have to score a ton of points, just move the ball (get that OL push all game, wear them down, pop Gore in the 4th quarter) hit a crucial big play, and be able to win late. That's been the formula for the team for weeks.
It's partially home team colored glasses; this is a soft analysis as opposed to relying on the metrics I always use. In the long run, you use those metrics; they demonstrate who the best teams are. Regardless of how this game turns out, the best team in the NFL in 2013 was Seattle.
But I'll say we beat them anyway 23-21.
Looking ahead, the NFC is giving 2 1/2 in the Super Bowl, consider that and consider the money line as well - there isn't a configuration after this weekend where you shouldn't feel comfortable with the NFC Champion winning the Super Bowl.
I have two more pieces coming for the other place later this week. I'll post links here.
2013 NFL Playoff Predictions - Divisional Round
Wednesday, January 8, 2014
Last week is here I was 3-0-1 ATS, 1-3 SU.
(4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS for this round)
Uncomplicated for me this week - I'm taking all favorites to win outright, and 3 of the dogs to cover. If there's an outright upset, I think it's the Colts.
AFC
Colts +7 NE
SD +9.5 Denver
I'm not giving a touchdown in a playoff game this year; it's too easy to score. Didn't I just see the Chargers beat Denver outright? I've seen both of these lines a half point higher, but at the time of this writing, these are the sportsbook.com lines, and that's to where I turn (the Supercontest lines being the exception) and I'd like another half point on that Colt game, but nonetheless the picks stand.
Seriously, didn't the Chargers just go into Denver and beat the Broncos? Am I making that up?
I'll take both favorites to win the games, giving us Pats at Broncos for the right to lose this year's Super Bowl.
NFC
NO +7.5 Sea
Niners -1 Carol
For several weeks, this looked like an unlikely situation for my Niners, a divisional round that wasn't in Seattle - somehow, it worked out (we haven't lost a game since Crabtree returned, maybe that's why) and that's all I need to see us advancing here (I don't think the Panthers have enough offense to beat us). More than a touchdown for the Saints? Yeah, I'll do that. They might lose 27-3, but I'm not giving more than a touchdown. If I go 3-1 ATS and that's the one I lose, I'll take it.
Favorites win the games, setting up Super Bowl 47.5 next week in Seattle.
(4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS for this round)
Uncomplicated for me this week - I'm taking all favorites to win outright, and 3 of the dogs to cover. If there's an outright upset, I think it's the Colts.
AFC
Colts +7 NE
SD +9.5 Denver
I'm not giving a touchdown in a playoff game this year; it's too easy to score. Didn't I just see the Chargers beat Denver outright? I've seen both of these lines a half point higher, but at the time of this writing, these are the sportsbook.com lines, and that's to where I turn (the Supercontest lines being the exception) and I'd like another half point on that Colt game, but nonetheless the picks stand.
Seriously, didn't the Chargers just go into Denver and beat the Broncos? Am I making that up?
I'll take both favorites to win the games, giving us Pats at Broncos for the right to lose this year's Super Bowl.
NFC
NO +7.5 Sea
Niners -1 Carol
For several weeks, this looked like an unlikely situation for my Niners, a divisional round that wasn't in Seattle - somehow, it worked out (we haven't lost a game since Crabtree returned, maybe that's why) and that's all I need to see us advancing here (I don't think the Panthers have enough offense to beat us). More than a touchdown for the Saints? Yeah, I'll do that. They might lose 27-3, but I'm not giving more than a touchdown. If I go 3-1 ATS and that's the one I lose, I'll take it.
Favorites win the games, setting up Super Bowl 47.5 next week in Seattle.
2013 NFL Playoff Predictions
Thursday, January 2, 2014
My pre-season picks are here.
Coming into the year, my overarching view of the NFL was that Seattle/San Francisco/Denver and New England were the 4 best teams, with Denver and Seattle going to advance to the Super Bowl based on their earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A team I particularly liked as a dark horse was Cincinnati, I had them as a double digit division winner.
That gets us to this year (with the "any given sunday" caveat)
AFC
San Diego at Cincinnati
Kansas City at Indianapolis
The Chargers shouldn't beat the Bengals; Cincinnati's got the advantage in all of the key metrics that you'd look for to compare teams; there isn't a basis to pick a road upset here. Bengals win outright. They're giving 7, which, if I had to pick a side, would be too much, so I'd pick the Chargers +7.
In the other game, the Chiefs have a significantly higher DVOA/weighted DVOA than do the Colts; the Colts have the better GWP than the Chiefs (but it's close) and Kansas City's SRS is a little better than is Indianapolis. When you add in the home field advantage it's reasonable to pick either side - I'm taking Kansas City +2.5 and will go ahead and pick the Chiefs outright as well.
2-0 ATS, 0-2 straight up
That would mean
Kansas City at Denver
Cincinnati at New England
There's no reason not to pick Denver to advance, but I'd bet they'd rather see the Colts than a divisional opponent. I am going to pick the Bengals to beat the Patriots; part of that is wishcasting, but here I'm relying on the solid GWP advantage the Bengals have. Right now, you can get +650 on the Bengals to win the AFC, consider that as a play worth making. The Chiefs have a non-zero chance to beat Denver, it's almost certain I'll suggest taking the points in that game - meaning, in this scenario, the AFC Championship would be in Cincinnati.
Cincinnati at Denver
The choice here is to go with the team I've had in this spot since pre-season, which has really done nothing to play its way out of that spot - or make a more fun Bengals pick. It's probably a mistake to chase the Ravens from last year, to "see" either Kansas City or Cincinnati in that spot. I'll pick Denver to come out of the AFC, there just isn't a really good reason not to, but were the Niners to be eliminated, I'd most like to see Kansas City or Cincinnati coming out of the AFC.
NFC
New Orleans at Philadelphia
San Francisco at Green Bay
Except for SRS, which has the Saints solidly better, the first game looks really close, with the New Orleans disinclination to perform away from home, magnified, perhaps, in weather conditions this weekend, as the deciding factor. I have been angling to avoid a divisional round Seahawk/49er game for the past couple of months meaning I need a New Orleans win here - I've been back and forth, but in the end I just can't pick them. I'll say the Eagles win, they're favored 2.5, I'll split my ticket and take those points and the Saints.
The Niners are significantly better than Green Bay; I don't love facing a presumably healthy Aaron Rodgers either, but it's hard to see a circumstance outside of whiteout blizzard where the Packers can stop San Francisco. Take the Niners, give the 3.
1-0-1 ATS, 1-1 SU
That would mean
San Francisco at Seattle
Philadelphia at Carolina
I had this matchup all season long; the Niners are as close to where you'd like them to be as would be reasonable to hope throughout the season - but Seattle's the best team in football. I think it's a game; we've been blown out in recent trips north, I don't think that's where we are now - but this has all the makings of a mid 90s Niner/Packer game and I think we're on the wrong side. If we can get that Carolina matchup instead, it's not a guarantee but I'd take us. Here, no. I think these are the two best teams; I'm going to take whomever comes out of this game to win the whole thing. I think, if you're a Niner or Seahawk fan, you root for Denver on the other side, both because beating Peyton Manning will mean more and because there will be plenty of money on Denver, giving you an investment opportunity that doesn't exist with any other AFC team.
Panthers probably win. Then they lose to Seattle.
Super Bowl 48
Seattle 28 Denver 20
Coming into the year, my overarching view of the NFL was that Seattle/San Francisco/Denver and New England were the 4 best teams, with Denver and Seattle going to advance to the Super Bowl based on their earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A team I particularly liked as a dark horse was Cincinnati, I had them as a double digit division winner.
That gets us to this year (with the "any given sunday" caveat)
AFC
San Diego at Cincinnati
Kansas City at Indianapolis
The Chargers shouldn't beat the Bengals; Cincinnati's got the advantage in all of the key metrics that you'd look for to compare teams; there isn't a basis to pick a road upset here. Bengals win outright. They're giving 7, which, if I had to pick a side, would be too much, so I'd pick the Chargers +7.
In the other game, the Chiefs have a significantly higher DVOA/weighted DVOA than do the Colts; the Colts have the better GWP than the Chiefs (but it's close) and Kansas City's SRS is a little better than is Indianapolis. When you add in the home field advantage it's reasonable to pick either side - I'm taking Kansas City +2.5 and will go ahead and pick the Chiefs outright as well.
2-0 ATS, 0-2 straight up
That would mean
Kansas City at Denver
Cincinnati at New England
There's no reason not to pick Denver to advance, but I'd bet they'd rather see the Colts than a divisional opponent. I am going to pick the Bengals to beat the Patriots; part of that is wishcasting, but here I'm relying on the solid GWP advantage the Bengals have. Right now, you can get +650 on the Bengals to win the AFC, consider that as a play worth making. The Chiefs have a non-zero chance to beat Denver, it's almost certain I'll suggest taking the points in that game - meaning, in this scenario, the AFC Championship would be in Cincinnati.
Cincinnati at Denver
The choice here is to go with the team I've had in this spot since pre-season, which has really done nothing to play its way out of that spot - or make a more fun Bengals pick. It's probably a mistake to chase the Ravens from last year, to "see" either Kansas City or Cincinnati in that spot. I'll pick Denver to come out of the AFC, there just isn't a really good reason not to, but were the Niners to be eliminated, I'd most like to see Kansas City or Cincinnati coming out of the AFC.
NFC
New Orleans at Philadelphia
San Francisco at Green Bay
Except for SRS, which has the Saints solidly better, the first game looks really close, with the New Orleans disinclination to perform away from home, magnified, perhaps, in weather conditions this weekend, as the deciding factor. I have been angling to avoid a divisional round Seahawk/49er game for the past couple of months meaning I need a New Orleans win here - I've been back and forth, but in the end I just can't pick them. I'll say the Eagles win, they're favored 2.5, I'll split my ticket and take those points and the Saints.
The Niners are significantly better than Green Bay; I don't love facing a presumably healthy Aaron Rodgers either, but it's hard to see a circumstance outside of whiteout blizzard where the Packers can stop San Francisco. Take the Niners, give the 3.
1-0-1 ATS, 1-1 SU
That would mean
San Francisco at Seattle
Philadelphia at Carolina
I had this matchup all season long; the Niners are as close to where you'd like them to be as would be reasonable to hope throughout the season - but Seattle's the best team in football. I think it's a game; we've been blown out in recent trips north, I don't think that's where we are now - but this has all the makings of a mid 90s Niner/Packer game and I think we're on the wrong side. If we can get that Carolina matchup instead, it's not a guarantee but I'd take us. Here, no. I think these are the two best teams; I'm going to take whomever comes out of this game to win the whole thing. I think, if you're a Niner or Seahawk fan, you root for Denver on the other side, both because beating Peyton Manning will mean more and because there will be plenty of money on Denver, giving you an investment opportunity that doesn't exist with any other AFC team.
Panthers probably win. Then they lose to Seattle.
Super Bowl 48
Seattle 28 Denver 20
#FarewellCandlestick: The 100 Greatest Moments in Candlestick Park History: #1
Sunday, December 29, 2013
We've reached the end - 99 down and here is the greatest moment in Candlestick Park history.
#2 is here.
#1 January 10, 1982 The Catch
The Catch.
our 6 turnovers
shoeless punter
tommy from san mateo
get
dan
white
eddie d's cigarette. tony d's left eye
amos lawrence, #20 on the muff
halftime death threat
3rd and 5-donley-Incomplete
4:54 and far away
lenvil elliott draw...lenvil elliott sweep..lenvil elliott sweep..esrever
dwight to the 25
freddie to the 13
brown left slot sprint right option.
wright had him by the shirt or he's gone
pillers/stuckey the game ended at the right time for them
Respect. That. Motherfucker.
2013 NFL All-Pro Ballot
Saturday, December 28, 2013
I watch football. Here were the best players in 2013.
QB PManning - Denver
RB JCharles - KC
LMcCoy - Phi
WR CJohnson - Det
JGordon-Cle
TE JGraham - NO
C AMack - Cle
G JSitton-GB
EMathis-Phi
T JStaley - SF
JThomas-Cle
DE RQuinn -StL
GHardy-Car
DT JJ Watt-Hou
OLB LDavid-TB
RMathis-Ind
ILB NBowman-SF
LKuechly-Car
CB RSherman-Sea
PPeterson-Ari
S EThomas-Sea
EBerry-KC
PK JTucker-Balt
P JHekker-StL
QB PManning - Denver
RB JCharles - KC
LMcCoy - Phi
WR CJohnson - Det
JGordon-Cle
TE JGraham - NO
C AMack - Cle
G JSitton-GB
EMathis-Phi
T JStaley - SF
JThomas-Cle
DE RQuinn -StL
GHardy-Car
DT JJ Watt-Hou
OLB LDavid-TB
RMathis-Ind
ILB NBowman-SF
LKuechly-Car
CB RSherman-Sea
PPeterson-Ari
S EThomas-Sea
EBerry-KC
PK JTucker-Balt
P JHekker-StL
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