My pre-season picks are here.
Coming into the year, my overarching view of the NFL was that Seattle/San Francisco/Denver and New England were the 4 best teams, with Denver and Seattle going to advance to the Super Bowl based on their earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A team I particularly liked as a dark horse was Cincinnati, I had them as a double digit division winner.
That gets us to this year (with the "any given sunday" caveat)
AFC
San Diego at Cincinnati
Kansas City at Indianapolis
The Chargers shouldn't beat the Bengals; Cincinnati's got the advantage in all of the key metrics that you'd look for to compare teams; there isn't a basis to pick a road upset here. Bengals win outright. They're giving 7, which, if I had to pick a side, would be too much, so I'd pick the Chargers +7.
In the other game, the Chiefs have a significantly higher DVOA/weighted DVOA than do the Colts; the Colts have the better GWP than the Chiefs (but it's close) and Kansas City's SRS is a little better than is Indianapolis. When you add in the home field advantage it's reasonable to pick either side - I'm taking Kansas City +2.5 and will go ahead and pick the Chiefs outright as well.
2-0 ATS, 0-2 straight up
That would mean
Kansas City at Denver
Cincinnati at New England
There's no reason not to pick Denver to advance, but I'd bet they'd rather see the Colts than a divisional opponent. I am going to pick the Bengals to beat the Patriots; part of that is wishcasting, but here I'm relying on the solid GWP advantage the Bengals have. Right now, you can get +650 on the Bengals to win the AFC, consider that as a play worth making. The Chiefs have a non-zero chance to beat Denver, it's almost certain I'll suggest taking the points in that game - meaning, in this scenario, the AFC Championship would be in Cincinnati.
Cincinnati at Denver
The choice here is to go with the team I've had in this spot since pre-season, which has really done nothing to play its way out of that spot - or make a more fun Bengals pick. It's probably a mistake to chase the Ravens from last year, to "see" either Kansas City or Cincinnati in that spot. I'll pick Denver to come out of the AFC, there just isn't a really good reason not to, but were the Niners to be eliminated, I'd most like to see Kansas City or Cincinnati coming out of the AFC.
NFC
New Orleans at Philadelphia
San Francisco at Green Bay
Except for SRS, which has the Saints solidly better, the first game looks really close, with the New Orleans disinclination to perform away from home, magnified, perhaps, in weather conditions this weekend, as the deciding factor. I have been angling to avoid a divisional round Seahawk/49er game for the past couple of months meaning I need a New Orleans win here - I've been back and forth, but in the end I just can't pick them. I'll say the Eagles win, they're favored 2.5, I'll split my ticket and take those points and the Saints.
The Niners are significantly better than Green Bay; I don't love facing a presumably healthy Aaron Rodgers either, but it's hard to see a circumstance outside of whiteout blizzard where the Packers can stop San Francisco. Take the Niners, give the 3.
1-0-1 ATS, 1-1 SU
That would mean
San Francisco at Seattle
Philadelphia at Carolina
I had this matchup all season long; the Niners are as close to where you'd like them to be as would be reasonable to hope throughout the season - but Seattle's the best team in football. I think it's a game; we've been blown out in recent trips north, I don't think that's where we are now - but this has all the makings of a mid 90s Niner/Packer game and I think we're on the wrong side. If we can get that Carolina matchup instead, it's not a guarantee but I'd take us. Here, no. I think these are the two best teams; I'm going to take whomever comes out of this game to win the whole thing. I think, if you're a Niner or Seahawk fan, you root for Denver on the other side, both because beating Peyton Manning will mean more and because there will be plenty of money on Denver, giving you an investment opportunity that doesn't exist with any other AFC team.
Panthers probably win. Then they lose to Seattle.
Super Bowl 48
Seattle 28 Denver 20
#FarewellCandlestick: The 100 Greatest Moments in Candlestick Park History: #1
Sunday, December 29, 2013
We've reached the end - 99 down and here is the greatest moment in Candlestick Park history.
#2 is here.
#1 January 10, 1982 The Catch
The Catch.
our 6 turnovers
shoeless punter
tommy from san mateo
get
dan
white
eddie d's cigarette. tony d's left eye
amos lawrence, #20 on the muff
halftime death threat
3rd and 5-donley-Incomplete
4:54 and far away
lenvil elliott draw...lenvil elliott sweep..lenvil elliott sweep..esrever
dwight to the 25
freddie to the 13
brown left slot sprint right option.
wright had him by the shirt or he's gone
pillers/stuckey the game ended at the right time for them
Respect. That. Motherfucker.
2013 NFL All-Pro Ballot
Saturday, December 28, 2013
I watch football. Here were the best players in 2013.
QB PManning - Denver
RB JCharles - KC
LMcCoy - Phi
WR CJohnson - Det
JGordon-Cle
TE JGraham - NO
C AMack - Cle
G JSitton-GB
EMathis-Phi
T JStaley - SF
JThomas-Cle
DE RQuinn -StL
GHardy-Car
DT JJ Watt-Hou
OLB LDavid-TB
RMathis-Ind
ILB NBowman-SF
LKuechly-Car
CB RSherman-Sea
PPeterson-Ari
S EThomas-Sea
EBerry-KC
PK JTucker-Balt
P JHekker-StL
QB PManning - Denver
RB JCharles - KC
LMcCoy - Phi
WR CJohnson - Det
JGordon-Cle
TE JGraham - NO
C AMack - Cle
G JSitton-GB
EMathis-Phi
T JStaley - SF
JThomas-Cle
DE RQuinn -StL
GHardy-Car
DT JJ Watt-Hou
OLB LDavid-TB
RMathis-Ind
ILB NBowman-SF
LKuechly-Car
CB RSherman-Sea
PPeterson-Ari
S EThomas-Sea
EBerry-KC
PK JTucker-Balt
P JHekker-StL
#FarewellCandlestick: The 100 Greatest Moments in Candlestick Park History: #2
#3 is here.
#2 October 9, 1989 The Giants Win the Pennant
Up 3 games to 1 in the '89 NLCS, the score tied 1-1 in the 8th inning, Will Clark lined a Mitch Williams fastball over second base to score 2; the Giants only had 4 hits to the Cubs 10, but 3 of those hits were Clark's, and this one was the game winner.
Steve Bedrosian gave one back in the 9th, but with 2 on and 2 out, he got Ryne Sandberg to ground out, ending the series and giving the Giants their second San Francisco pennant and the only won they'd ever win at Candlestick.
The greatest moment in Candlestick history is tomorrow.
#2 October 9, 1989 The Giants Win the Pennant
Up 3 games to 1 in the '89 NLCS, the score tied 1-1 in the 8th inning, Will Clark lined a Mitch Williams fastball over second base to score 2; the Giants only had 4 hits to the Cubs 10, but 3 of those hits were Clark's, and this one was the game winner.
Steve Bedrosian gave one back in the 9th, but with 2 on and 2 out, he got Ryne Sandberg to ground out, ending the series and giving the Giants their second San Francisco pennant and the only won they'd ever win at Candlestick.
The greatest moment in Candlestick history is tomorrow.
2014 Professional Wrestling Matches of the Year
Friday, December 27, 2013
And we're underway.
So, this year we'll go with three lists. At the top will be the ongoing ranking of every 4 1/2+ and up matches I see this year; in 2013 there were fewer than 20 which is less than half the total we were getting pretty regularly just a few years ago.
Next, the WWE 4 star and up matches; previously, I've also included 4 star matches from TNA; if any occur, I'll include them as well.
Finally, a grab bag of 4 and 4 1/4 matches. They won't be ranked, nor should they be seen as comprehensive, just a list as I see them.
I'm done. This is the list.
Match of the Year
1. Harashima v. Kodaka v. Omega (DDT Aug) 5
2, Goto v. Ishii (NJPW Nov) 4 3/4
3. Marufuji v. Nakajima (NOAH July) 4 3/4
4. Ishii v. Ibushi (NJPW May) 4 3/4
5. Go v. Suwama (AJPW Sept) 4 3/4
6. Kenta v. Yuji Nagata (NOAH-Dec '13) 4 3/4
7. Elita/T-Hawk v Tozawa/Shingo (DG July) 4 3/4
8. Naito v. Ishii (NJPW Feb) 4 3/4
9. Yoshino v. Mochizuki (Dragon Gate Jan) 4 3/4
10. Kenta/Marufuji v. Nakajima/Sugiura (NOAH May) 4 3/4
11. Tanaka/Sugiura v. Hidaka/Hayato (Zero One, Sep) 4 1/2
12. Ibushi v. Kondo (DDT Aug) 4 1/2
13. Shibata v. Nagata (NJPW Aug) 4 1/2
14. Styles v. Suzuki (NJPW Aug) 4 1/2
15. Styles v. Tanahashi (NJPW Oct) 4 1/2
16. Ishii v. Yujiro (NJPW Oct) 4 1/2
17. Ibushi v. Ricochet (NJPW June) 4 1/2
18. Takeshita/Endo v. Kudo/Takanashi (DDT Oct) 4 1/2
19. Ishii v. Naito (NJPW Apr) 4 1/2
20. Kenta v. Yuji Nagata (NOAH Feb) 4 1/2
21. Harashima v. Ishii (KDojo Sept) 4 1/2
22. T-Hawk/Eita v. Susuma/Kagetora (DGate Sep) 4 1/2
23. Nakamura v. Ishii (NJPW Aug) 4 1/2
24. Nakamura v. Okada (NJPW Aug) 4 1/2
25. Okada v. Naito (NJPW Oct) 4 1/2
26. Marufuji v. Nakajima (NOAH Oct) 4 1/2
27. Styles v. O'Reilly (ROH Sep) 4 1/2
28. Nakamura v. Tanahashi (NJPW Feb) 4 1/2
29. Nakamura v. Tanahashi (NJPW Apr) 4 1/2
30. Shelley/Kushida v. Young Bucks (NJPW June) 4 1/2
31. Young Bucks v. Fish/O'Reilly (NJPW/ROH May) 4 1/2
32. Cesaro v. Sami Zayn (WWE NXT Feb) 4 1/2
Best WWE/TNA Matches
1. Cesaro v. Sami Zayn (Feb) 4 1/2
2. Aries v. Sanada (TNA, Feb) 4 1/4
3. John Cena d. Bray Wyatt (June) 4 1/4
4. Seth Rollins d. Dean Ambrose (Aug) 4 1/4
5. Elimination Chamber (Feb) 4 1/4
6. American Wolves v. Bad Influence (TNA, Aug) 4
7. Sami Zayn v. Adrian Neville (NXT, Nov) 4
8. Daniel Bryan v. HHH (April) 4
9. Brock Lesnar v. John Cena (Aug) 4
10. Wyatt Family v. The Shield (Feb) 4
11. Daniel Bryan v. Bray Wyatt (Jan) 4
12. Wolves v. Hardys v. Dudleys (TNA, Oct) 4
13. Shield v. Evolution (May) 4
14. Wyatt Family v. Usos (July) 4
15. Wyatt Family v. The Shield (Apr) 4
16. Wyatt Family v. The Shield (Mar) 4
17. MITB-Briefcase (June) 4
18. Sami Zayn v. Tyler Breeze (NXT May) 4
Additional 4 Star Matches
Tanahashi/Naito v. Okada/Nakamura (NJPW-Dec '13) 4
Hulk v. Yoshino (DGate Dec '13) 4
Goto v. Shibata (NJPW Jan) 4
Nakamura v. Tanahashi (NJPW Jan) 4 1/4
Ibushi v. Devitt (NJPW Jan) 4
Okada v. Naito (NJPW Jan) 4
Richards v. Fox (Evolve Jan) 4 1/4
Okada v. Goto (NJPW Feb) 4 1/4
Lethal v. Styles (ROH Feb) 4
Okada v. Ibushi (NJPW Mar) 4 1/4
Marufuji/Ishimori v. Hayato/Kajiwara (D-Ring Feb) 4
Young Bucks v. Red Dragon (ROH Mar) 4 1/4
Hero v. Styles (ROH Mar) 4 1/4
Elgin v. Steen (ROH Apr) 4
Ishii v. Honma (NJPW May) 4 1/4
Young Bucks v. Shelley/Kushida v. Romero/Koslov (ROH/NJPW May) 4
Elgin v. Styles (ROH May) 4
Elgin v. Okada v. Styles (ROH/NJPW May) 4
Flamita v. Susumu (DG May) 4
Yamato v. Ricochet (DG May) 4
Okada v. Styles (NJPW May) 4
Ricochet v. Kushida (NJPW June) 4 1/4
Kenta/Takayama v. Marufuji/Nakajmima (NOAH April) 4
Ishii v. Yujiro (NJPW June) 4
Suwama v. Miyahara (AJPW July) 4
American Wolves v. Minoru/Kanemoto (W1 June) 4 1/4
Marufuji v. Nagata (NOAH July) 4 1/4
Ricochet v. ACH (PWG May) 4
Cole v. O'Reilly (PWG May) 4 1/4
Nakamura v. Shibata (NJPW July) 4
Styles d. Okada (NJPW July) 4 1/4
Hulk v. Yamato (DG July) 4
Styles v. Naito (NJPW July) 4 1/4
Tanahashi v. Shibata (NJPW July) 4 1/4
Ishii v. Honma (NJPW July) 4
Ishii v. Tanahashi (NJPW July) 4
Nakamura v. Honma (NJPW July) 4
Makabe v. Naito (NJPW Aug) 4
Goto v. Naito (NJPW Aug) 4
Suzuki v. Makabe (NJPW Aug) 4
Honma v. Shibata (NJPW Aug) 4 1/4
Tanahashi v. Nakamura (NJPW Aug) 4 1/4
Suzuki v. Naito (NJPW Aug) 4
Okada v. Goto (NJPW Aug) 4
Ishii v. Nagata (NJPW Aug) 4
Okada v. Suzuki (NJPW Aug) 4 1/4
O'Reilly v. Elgin (ROH Aug) 4
Tanahashi v. Styles (NJPW Aug) 4
Kai v. Sai (Zero One Aug) 4
Irie/Ishii v. Miyahara/Kotaro (AJPW Aug) 4
Aoki v. Kotaro (NOAH Aug) 4
Young Bucks v. Bad Influence (ROH Sep) 4 1/4
Neville v. Zayn v. Kidd v. Breeze (WWE Sep) 4
Bucks v. Briscoes (ROH Sep) 4
Ishii v. Endo (DDT Aug) 4
Ciampa v. Elgin (ROH Sep) 4
Kai v. Tanaka (Wrestle 1 Sep) 4
Hardys v. Bucks (NEW Aug) 4
Marufuji v. Sekimoto (NOAH Oct) 4
BxB Hulk v. Cyber Kong (DG Oct) 4
Suguira/Tanaka v. Nicholls/Haste (NOAH Oct) 4 1/4
Hulk v. Tozawa (DG Nov )4
Fish/O'Reilly v. Kushida/Shelley (Nov NJPW) 4 1/4
Tanahashi/Ibushi v. Okada/Hashi (Nov NJPW) 4
Bucks v. Hardys (Nov House of Hardcore) 4
Sabre v. O'Reilly (Aug PWG) 4
Sabre v. Cole (Aug PWG) 4 1/4
Bucks v. Daniels/Kazarian (Aug PWG) 4 1/4
Goto v. Makabe (Sep NJPW) 4
Tanahashi v. Shibata (Sep NJPW) 4 1/4
So, this year we'll go with three lists. At the top will be the ongoing ranking of every 4 1/2+ and up matches I see this year; in 2013 there were fewer than 20 which is less than half the total we were getting pretty regularly just a few years ago.
Next, the WWE 4 star and up matches; previously, I've also included 4 star matches from TNA; if any occur, I'll include them as well.
Finally, a grab bag of 4 and 4 1/4 matches. They won't be ranked, nor should they be seen as comprehensive, just a list as I see them.
I'm done. This is the list.
Match of the Year
1. Harashima v. Kodaka v. Omega (DDT Aug) 5
2, Goto v. Ishii (NJPW Nov) 4 3/4
3. Marufuji v. Nakajima (NOAH July) 4 3/4
4. Ishii v. Ibushi (NJPW May) 4 3/4
5. Go v. Suwama (AJPW Sept) 4 3/4
6. Kenta v. Yuji Nagata (NOAH-Dec '13) 4 3/4
7. Elita/T-Hawk v Tozawa/Shingo (DG July) 4 3/4
8. Naito v. Ishii (NJPW Feb) 4 3/4
9. Yoshino v. Mochizuki (Dragon Gate Jan) 4 3/4
10. Kenta/Marufuji v. Nakajima/Sugiura (NOAH May) 4 3/4
11. Tanaka/Sugiura v. Hidaka/Hayato (Zero One, Sep) 4 1/2
12. Ibushi v. Kondo (DDT Aug) 4 1/2
13. Shibata v. Nagata (NJPW Aug) 4 1/2
14. Styles v. Suzuki (NJPW Aug) 4 1/2
15. Styles v. Tanahashi (NJPW Oct) 4 1/2
16. Ishii v. Yujiro (NJPW Oct) 4 1/2
17. Ibushi v. Ricochet (NJPW June) 4 1/2
18. Takeshita/Endo v. Kudo/Takanashi (DDT Oct) 4 1/2
19. Ishii v. Naito (NJPW Apr) 4 1/2
20. Kenta v. Yuji Nagata (NOAH Feb) 4 1/2
21. Harashima v. Ishii (KDojo Sept) 4 1/2
22. T-Hawk/Eita v. Susuma/Kagetora (DGate Sep) 4 1/2
23. Nakamura v. Ishii (NJPW Aug) 4 1/2
24. Nakamura v. Okada (NJPW Aug) 4 1/2
25. Okada v. Naito (NJPW Oct) 4 1/2
26. Marufuji v. Nakajima (NOAH Oct) 4 1/2
27. Styles v. O'Reilly (ROH Sep) 4 1/2
28. Nakamura v. Tanahashi (NJPW Feb) 4 1/2
29. Nakamura v. Tanahashi (NJPW Apr) 4 1/2
30. Shelley/Kushida v. Young Bucks (NJPW June) 4 1/2
31. Young Bucks v. Fish/O'Reilly (NJPW/ROH May) 4 1/2
32. Cesaro v. Sami Zayn (WWE NXT Feb) 4 1/2
Best WWE/TNA Matches
1. Cesaro v. Sami Zayn (Feb) 4 1/2
2. Aries v. Sanada (TNA, Feb) 4 1/4
3. John Cena d. Bray Wyatt (June) 4 1/4
4. Seth Rollins d. Dean Ambrose (Aug) 4 1/4
5. Elimination Chamber (Feb) 4 1/4
6. American Wolves v. Bad Influence (TNA, Aug) 4
7. Sami Zayn v. Adrian Neville (NXT, Nov) 4
8. Daniel Bryan v. HHH (April) 4
9. Brock Lesnar v. John Cena (Aug) 4
10. Wyatt Family v. The Shield (Feb) 4
11. Daniel Bryan v. Bray Wyatt (Jan) 4
12. Wolves v. Hardys v. Dudleys (TNA, Oct) 4
13. Shield v. Evolution (May) 4
14. Wyatt Family v. Usos (July) 4
15. Wyatt Family v. The Shield (Apr) 4
16. Wyatt Family v. The Shield (Mar) 4
17. MITB-Briefcase (June) 4
18. Sami Zayn v. Tyler Breeze (NXT May) 4
Additional 4 Star Matches
Tanahashi/Naito v. Okada/Nakamura (NJPW-Dec '13) 4
Hulk v. Yoshino (DGate Dec '13) 4
Goto v. Shibata (NJPW Jan) 4
Nakamura v. Tanahashi (NJPW Jan) 4 1/4
Ibushi v. Devitt (NJPW Jan) 4
Okada v. Naito (NJPW Jan) 4
Richards v. Fox (Evolve Jan) 4 1/4
Okada v. Goto (NJPW Feb) 4 1/4
Lethal v. Styles (ROH Feb) 4
Okada v. Ibushi (NJPW Mar) 4 1/4
Marufuji/Ishimori v. Hayato/Kajiwara (D-Ring Feb) 4
Young Bucks v. Red Dragon (ROH Mar) 4 1/4
Hero v. Styles (ROH Mar) 4 1/4
Elgin v. Steen (ROH Apr) 4
Ishii v. Honma (NJPW May) 4 1/4
Young Bucks v. Shelley/Kushida v. Romero/Koslov (ROH/NJPW May) 4
Elgin v. Styles (ROH May) 4
Elgin v. Okada v. Styles (ROH/NJPW May) 4
Flamita v. Susumu (DG May) 4
Yamato v. Ricochet (DG May) 4
Okada v. Styles (NJPW May) 4
Ricochet v. Kushida (NJPW June) 4 1/4
Kenta/Takayama v. Marufuji/Nakajmima (NOAH April) 4
Ishii v. Yujiro (NJPW June) 4
Suwama v. Miyahara (AJPW July) 4
American Wolves v. Minoru/Kanemoto (W1 June) 4 1/4
Marufuji v. Nagata (NOAH July) 4 1/4
Ricochet v. ACH (PWG May) 4
Cole v. O'Reilly (PWG May) 4 1/4
Nakamura v. Shibata (NJPW July) 4
Styles d. Okada (NJPW July) 4 1/4
Hulk v. Yamato (DG July) 4
Styles v. Naito (NJPW July) 4 1/4
Tanahashi v. Shibata (NJPW July) 4 1/4
Ishii v. Honma (NJPW July) 4
Ishii v. Tanahashi (NJPW July) 4
Nakamura v. Honma (NJPW July) 4
Makabe v. Naito (NJPW Aug) 4
Goto v. Naito (NJPW Aug) 4
Suzuki v. Makabe (NJPW Aug) 4
Honma v. Shibata (NJPW Aug) 4 1/4
Tanahashi v. Nakamura (NJPW Aug) 4 1/4
Suzuki v. Naito (NJPW Aug) 4
Okada v. Goto (NJPW Aug) 4
Ishii v. Nagata (NJPW Aug) 4
Okada v. Suzuki (NJPW Aug) 4 1/4
O'Reilly v. Elgin (ROH Aug) 4
Tanahashi v. Styles (NJPW Aug) 4
Kai v. Sai (Zero One Aug) 4
Irie/Ishii v. Miyahara/Kotaro (AJPW Aug) 4
Aoki v. Kotaro (NOAH Aug) 4
Young Bucks v. Bad Influence (ROH Sep) 4 1/4
Neville v. Zayn v. Kidd v. Breeze (WWE Sep) 4
Bucks v. Briscoes (ROH Sep) 4
Ishii v. Endo (DDT Aug) 4
Ciampa v. Elgin (ROH Sep) 4
Kai v. Tanaka (Wrestle 1 Sep) 4
Hardys v. Bucks (NEW Aug) 4
Marufuji v. Sekimoto (NOAH Oct) 4
BxB Hulk v. Cyber Kong (DG Oct) 4
Suguira/Tanaka v. Nicholls/Haste (NOAH Oct) 4 1/4
Hulk v. Tozawa (DG Nov )4
Fish/O'Reilly v. Kushida/Shelley (Nov NJPW) 4 1/4
Tanahashi/Ibushi v. Okada/Hashi (Nov NJPW) 4
Bucks v. Hardys (Nov House of Hardcore) 4
Sabre v. O'Reilly (Aug PWG) 4
Sabre v. Cole (Aug PWG) 4 1/4
Bucks v. Daniels/Kazarian (Aug PWG) 4 1/4
Goto v. Makabe (Sep NJPW) 4
Tanahashi v. Shibata (Sep NJPW) 4 1/4
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