2012-13 NFC Playoff Picks

The AFC is here.



I don't recall the last time I picked the 49ers to go to the Super Bowl; it may have been 1994.

But here we are.

1. Atl
2. SF
3. GB
4. Was
5. Sea
6. Minn

As with the AFC, I'm referencing Bryan Burke/Football Outsiders/Pro-Football Reference when making this analysis.

Vikes at Packers

Offense: Burke Packers 8/Vikes 26
             FO: Packers 3/Vikes 15
             PFR: Pack 4.9/Vikes 1.6

Defense: Burke Pack 9/Vikes 13
              FO: Pack 8/Vikes 21
              PFR: Pack 2.4/Vikes 1.8

The Packers are better on both sides of the ball under each of the three analytic systems and solidly so; they're favored by 7.5, that's a no play for me, I'd favor the Pack by 7.  The Vikes are the only team in the NFC that it would be a real surprise if they made the Super Bowl.

Seahawks at Redskins

Offense: Burke Seahawks 4/Redskins 5
              FO: Seahawks 4/Redskins 6
              PFR: Redskins 4.6/Seahawks 4.5

Defense: Burke Seahawks 6/Redskins 24
              FO: Seahawks 4/Redskins 17
              PFR: Seahawks 7.7/Redskins 1.2

It's a wash offensively, but Seattle's substantial defensive advantage outweighs the home field advantage the Skins have; Seattle's favored by 3, I like them by a point, I'm saying no play to all 4 games this weekend, but if you had to, taking Washington probably provides the most daylight.

So, under that scenario:

Seahawks at Atlanta
Packers at Niners

Does Seattle beat Atlanta?

Atl Offense: Burke 13, FO 12, PFR 2.0 - so Seattle's offense is solidly better
Atl Defense: Burke 18, FO 12, PFR 4.5 - so Seattle's defense is better.

The Seahawks are better, not by a lot, and given the Falcons home field, that's a pick em game.  I'm going to  take the Seahawks, but you could go the other way, and I might by gametime.

Do the Niners beat the Packers?

49er Offense: Burke 3, FO 5, PFR 3.5 - it's close, you'd give a small edge to the Packers, but it's small.
49er Defense: Burke 3, FO 2, PFR 6.7 - the Niners defense is better.

San Francisco's better, I'd favor them (and by them, I mean us) by 6.

The two best teams in the NFC are, in a pretty healthy reversal of recent history, both from the West.  On a neutral field, I think you'd take Seattle, maybe by a point - maybe even two.  But in San Francisco, I'm going to favor the Niners by that point.

The image at the top of the page is Justin Smith; for at least the last two seasons it has been evident that he is the pivotal player on the Niner defense; it took a second week for most of the media to catch up - but his leaving the field as the Niners were up four touchdowns in New England led to a complete collapse that didn't slow until we left Seattle a week later.

If you tell me now he's not on the field at all, I'm likely to say we lose in any NFC Championship scenario.

If you tell me he's on the field but only marginally effective, I'm likely to say we still beat the Falcons, but lose to Seattle.

If you tell me he's on the field and largely effective, I'm saying (as I am) that the 49ers are going to the Super Bowl.

My Super Bowl is 49ers/Broncos - a game that, were it to occur, I'd analyze when timely - from a month away that seems like a pick 'em, with Denver maybe a point/two points better.

2012-13 AFC Playoff Picks

AFC

1. Denver
2. NE
3. Hou
4. Balt
5 Indy
6. Cin

This will be boring; I'm picking chalk all the way through.

I'm going to deal with three of the advanced metric systems; Bryan Burke's, Football Outsiders, and PF-Reference.

Bengals at Texans: The Texans are better, but not by a lot, by each of the systems.

Offense: Burke: Texans 12th/Bengals 19th
             FO: Texans 16th/Bengals 17th
             PFR: Texans 1.8/Bengals 1.2

Defense: Burke: Bengals 7th/Texans 10th
              FO: Texans 3rd/Bengals 10th
              PFR: Texans 1.7/Bengals .9

The line's 4.5 which is a stay away, I'd pick Texans by 5.

Colts at Ravens: The Ravens are better by each of the systems

Offense: Burke: Colts 16th/Ravens 17th
             FO: Ravens 13th/Colts 18th
             PFR: Ravens 1.9/Colts -1.9

Defense: Burke: Ravens 16/Colts 30
              FO: Ravens 19th/Colts 31
              PFR: Ravens 1/Colts -2.8

The line's 6.5 which is a stay away. I'd pick Ravens by 6.

No results in those games would be as surprising as any of those four teams making it to the conference title; there's a healthy difference between the Denver/Patriots group and the other four teams.

In this scenario it's:

Ravens at Broncos
Texans at Patriots

I'm likely to favor Denver by 10 and NE by 7.  If one of those games were to go the wrong way it would be Houston upsetting NE.  Far and away, the most likely AFC result is:

Patriots at Broncos

Offense: Burke: Patriots 1/Broncos 2
              FO: Patriots 1/Broncos 2
              PFR: Patriots 12.2/6.3

Defense:  Burke: Broncos 2/Patriots 29
               FO: Broncos 5/Patriots 15
               PFR: Broncos 3.8/Patriots .5


The AFC isn't that complicated; the two best offenses in the league are Pats/Denver, but Denver also can play defense and the Pats can't.  NE offense is the top unit in all of football, it makes them elite all by itself, but the defense isn't as good as potential second round opponent Houston's.  There's an open door for the Texans, but it's not a big opening.

Denver shouldn't have much trouble getting to the AFC Championship game; I'm likely to favor them by 6 - offense is the more important of the two sides, so the Patriots monstrous offense, now with the TE back, gives them a chance under any scenario - but the defensive gulf is too wide for me, and I'll take the Denver Broncos to go to the Super Bowl.
           

The 20 Best Television Shows of 2012

So, the AV Club did something fun; their ranking of the top 20 television shows of 2012 had the following scoring system - ballots had to allocate a total of 200 points among 15-20 shows.  I can totally do that.

Mad Men 15

Breaking Bad 15

30 Rock 13

Girls 13

Parks and Rec 12

Happy Endings 12

Community 11

Louie 11

Up With Chris Hayes 10

Rachel Maddow Show 10

Veep 10

Homeland 10

Portlandia 10

Colbert Report 9

Daily Show 9

New Girl 8

Its Always Sunny in Philadelphia 7

Billy on the Street 6

Survivor 5

Clubhouse Confidential 4

The (72 and Counting) Greatest Football Moments in Candlestick History

Next year is the last for the Niners at Candlestick -the club's put together this ranking of greatest moments.

It may not surprise you that this was insufficient for me.

So - here are (as of the end of 2012) the 71 greatest NFL moments in Candlestick Park history.  I'm just ranking them chronologically, at least one per season.  


1. 11-26-1971 NFC Divisional Playoffs – d Redskins 24-20 – Our first Candlestick playoff game; we held them to under 100 passing yds. Brodie had a 78 yard TD to Washington

 

2.       9-17-72 Home Opener – d Chargers 34-3 – We opened up the following season with three TDS for Washington

3.       10-21-73 biggest Candlestick margin to that date – d Saints 40-3 – We held NO to negative passing yds. Brodie was in his final year, he went 8 of 9 for 131 and a score.

44. 11-24-74  d Falcons 27-0– We had back to back shutouts in '74; Dave Wilcox led the defense.

5.      11-16-75 d Bears 31-3 – We held Bears to under 50passing yards. Tommy Hart took back a fumble for a score.

5. 10-23-76  d Falcons 15-0 – We improved to 6-1 when we heldAtl under 50 yds total offense. Jimmy Johnson was in his final season.

7.      11-27-77 d. Saints  20-17 – Wilbur Jackson had 190 yds rushing

8.      10-1-78 d. Bengals 28-12 – OJ Simpson’s firstNiner TD

9.      10-21-79 d Falcons 20-15 – Niners were 0-7coming in. Paul Hofer scored twice.

10.  9-14-80 d. Cardinals 24-21 – My firstCandlestick football game, 11 days before my 10^th birthday, a 4^thqtr comeback and OT win. Hofer scored twice including a game tying bustout in the 4th qtr.  

11.  12-7-80 d. Saints 38-35 – biggest regular seasoncomeback in NFL history

12.  10-11-81 d. Cowboys 45-15, Cowboys 5 ptfavorite, this was the real beginning of dynasty. Fred Dean's first game.

13.  1-3-82 NFC Divisional Playoffs d NYG 38-24 – firsthome playoff game in ten years

14.  1-10-82 NFC Title d Cowboys 28-27 – The Catch

15.  We didn’t win a home game in ‘82.  A bit of a Super Bowl hangover.  

16.  11-13-83 d NO 27-0 6 Fred Dean sacks

17.  12-19-83 –last game of regular season, MondayNight d Cowboys 42-17 win NFC West, Montana 4TDS


 

18.  12-31-83 – NFC Divisional Playoffs d Lions 24-234^th quarter comeback

19.  12-8-84 d Vikings 51-7, we hang 50 on the Vikes

20.  12-29-84 NFC Divisional Playoffs d NYG 21-10

21.  1-6-85 NFC Title d Bears 23-0, shutout, 9 sackshold Bears to 37 passing yds

22.  12-22-85 need win to make playoffs, last game ofseason d Cowboys 31-16, scored last 21 points

23.  10-5-86 d Colts 35-14, 3 TDS, 172 receiving ydsfor Rice – from Jeff Kemp

24.  11-9-86 d Cards 43-17, 3 TD 156 receiving ydsfor Rice – from Montana, making his return after back surgery


 

25.  12-19-86 d. Rams 24-14, for the division title

26.  11-29-87 d Browns, Cle had second best ptdifferential in ’87, Joe threw 4 TDs, 3 to Jerry, his last TD pass to Dwight.


 t

27.  12-27-87 d Rams 48-0, outgained them by almost300 yds, both Joe/Steve threw for multiple TDS

28.  10-30-88 d Vikes 24-21, Young’s broken tacklerun

29.  11-21-88 – Monday night against Champs dSkins  37-21, Joe retook job, the SB rollstarted, JT 95 yd punt return


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30.  1-1-89 – NFC Divisional Playoffs, d Vikes 34-9,revenge game, 3 Rice TD, Bill’s last Candlestick win

31.  11-27-89 Monday night, battle of 9-2 teams, dNYG 34-24, Joe 27-33 3 scores/0int

32.  1-6-90 NFC Divisional Playoffs, d Vikes again 41-13,Joe 4 TDs

33.  1-14-90 NFC Title d Rams 30-3 Joe 26-30, 2scores/0int

34.  11-18-90 d Bucs 31-7 took us to 10-0 afterwinning back to back SBs.

35.  12-3-90 d NYG Monday Night War 7-3

36.  1-12-91 NFC Divisional Playoff d Skins 28-10,Joe’s last Niner playoff win, we scored last 28.

37.  12-23-91 d Bears 52-14, there’s a future Ninerhead coach on the field, guess who it is, Don Griffin took a fumble back 99 yards.

38.  10-18-92 d Falcons 56-17, most Candlestickpoints, almost 600 total yards, Jerry 2 td receiving/1 rushing, over 200 totalyds, we then beat Atl 41-3 later in season

39.  12-28-92 Monday Night d Lions 24-6, Joe’s lastgame at Candlestick 15-21 2 scores

40.  1-9-93 NFC Division Playoffs d Skins 20-13

41.  1-15-94 NFC Division Playoffs d NYG 44-3 Wattersscored 5 TD

42.  9-5-94 Monday night season open d Raiders 44-14,Jerry scores 3 breaks all time TD record

43.  11-13-94 d Dallas 21-14,  We finally getpast the Cowboys in the regular season.

44.  11-20-94 d Rams 31-27, Jerry 16 catches/3 TD

45.  1-7-95 Divisional Playoff d Bears 44-15 3William Floyd TDs

46.  1-15-95 NFC Title d. Cowboys 38-28 21-0 first qtr leadand held on to finally beat the Cowboys

47.  12-18-95 d Vikes 37-30 – Is this Jerry Rice’sbest game?  14 catches/289 yds/3 TDs
.

48.  9-8-96 d Rams 34-0. Same ole sorry assRams.  At least for one more game.  7 sacks/2 safeties

49.  9-29-96 d Falcons.  The best game for a Niner kicker?  Jeff Wilkins’s 6 FG.

50.  12-29-96 NFC Wild Card d. Eagles 14-0, theWatters returns game, we hold him to less than 3 yds/carry

51.  12-15-97 Monday Night d Broncos 34-17, Joe gothis jersey retired, Jerry returned early from nearly season long injury andscored a TD, we went to 13-2.

52.  1-3-98 NFC Divisional Title d. Vikes 38-22,Terry Kirby 120 yds/2TD.  Terry Kirby!

53.  9-6-98 d Jets 36-30 Garrison Hearst had 187yards/2TD and a 96 yard OT TD to win it

54.  1-3-99 NFC Wild Card d. Packers 30-27Owens!  Owens! Owens! Owens!

55.  9-19-99 d Saints 28-21, Steve Young’s lastCandlestick game, Lance Schulters won game with 4^th qtr pick 6.

56.  12-17-00 d Bears 17-0, 20 balls for Owens onJerry’s last Candlestick game.

57.  11-11-01 d Saints, 28-27 4 TD passes and a 4^thqtr comeback for Garcia. Game winning TD pass to Eric Johnson, future JessicaSimpson baby daddy

58.  12-16-01 d Dolphins 21-0, battle of 9-3 teams,Niners get 6 sacks/4 turnovers, 2 of those were Zack Bronson picks.

59.  1-5-03 NFC Wild Card d. NYG 39-38, we scoredlast 25 points, Owens caught 9/177 2 TDs

60.  12-7-03 d Cards 50-14, 6 TDS for Garcia (4passing/2rushing)

61.  10-10-04 d Cards 31-28, only home win, scoredlast 19 points, Mr Jessica Simpson 13 catches/162/1TD

62.  10-30-05 d Bucs 15-10, Bucs were 5-1, 11.5 pointfavorites, Joe Nedney hit 4 40+yd FGs

63.  11-19-06 d Seahawks, 20-14 Frank Gore had 214 yds onground

64.  12-23-97 d Bucs 21-19, highlight of ’07 wasrookie Patrick Willis, here, 8 tackles, 2 sacks

65.  11-16-08 d Rams 35-16, highlight of ’08 was AndyLee, here 6 punts/311 yards

66.  9-20-09 d Seahawks 23-10, Gore 16/209/2TD

67.  11-14-10 d Rams 23-20, did Troy Smith reallythrow for 356 yards?

68.  9-11-11 d Seahawks 33-17, Ted Ginn takes back apunt and a kick for 4^th qtr scores

69.  12-19-11 A big Monday night game, like the olddays, two 10-3 teams, d Steelers 20-3, 2.5 sacks for Aldon Smith

70.  1-14-12 NFC Division Playoffs d Saints 36-32, 2    4^th qtr comebacks

71.  11-19-12 Monday Night v. Bears, we’re 6-2-1,they’re 7-2, d 32-7, Kaepernick takes starting QB job, 5.5 sacks for AldonSmith

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   72. 1-12-13 NFC Division Playoffs v. Packers. 45-31  Kaepernick amasses nearly 450 total yards, breaking the all time QB single game rushing record.

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