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Top 10 Right Now - Catchers (2012)

Friday, March 9, 2012

MLB Network recently did a "top 10" at each position for 2012 and an overall top 100; they handed over their top 10 lists to the metrics guys (but not the top 100, which makes for some interesting cross comparison) so there isn't as much room for outrage as is ideal.

I've got all the lists - I've made my own lists.  Here we go.



MLB Network List:

10. Carlos Ruiz
9. Matt Wieters
8. Yadier Molina
7. Brian McCann
6. Carlos Santana
5. Alex Avila
4. Buster Posey
3. Miguel Montero
2. Joe Mauer
1. Mike Napoli

My List:
10. Geovany Soto
9. Yadier Molina
8. Matt Wieters
7. Miguel Montero
6. Alex Avila
5. Mike Napoli
4. Buster Posey
3. Brian McCann
2. Carlos Santana
1. Joe Mauer

2012 MLB Predictions

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

This is the fourth and final build; I'll revisit as we get closer to the season.  I'd feel better about my pick to win the chip if they had a different manager. My projected win total is next to the team.  As we get closer, I'll compare my win total to the Vegas win totals.  Also, MLB Network has done a Top 100 right now and a Top 10 at each position, my plan is to match all of that before Opening Day.

I have good success against the books in predicting season long win totals, where there's a play, I'll indicate.




AL East
1.       NYY 94
 n   -ex SFG: David Aardsma
2.      Bos 90WC
-    -ex SFG: Cody Ross
3.       TB 86WC
-    -ex SFG: Jeff Keppinger
4.       Tor 79
     -ex SFG: Omar Vizquel, Rajai Davis
5.       Balt 72

AL Cent
1.       Det 89 (Under 93 is a solid play)
-     Cle 79
-     -ex SFG: Chris Ray
3.       CWS 79 (Over 74.5 is worth consideration)
      -ex SFG: AJ Pierzynski, Jesse Crain
4.       Min 72
-     -ex SFG: Francisco Liriano
5.       KC 69(Under 80 is stealing money; if this is the kind of investment you ever make, really think about this one)
      -ex SFG: Jonathan Sanchez

                  AL West
                  1. Tex 96World Champions(over 92 is a good play)
                  -ex SFG: Yorvit Torrealba, Joe Nathan,
 2.  LAA 87WC(under 92.5 is a good play)
-ex SFG: Jerome Williams, LaTroy Hawkins
3. Oak 76(over 71.5 is worth consideration)
-ex SFG: Erick Threets
4. Sea 70

NL East
1.       Philadelphia 89Pennant(under 92.5 is worth consideration)
2.       Mia 89WC(over 84.5 is worth consideration)
3.       Atl 86WC
4.       Was 82
       ex-SFG: Mark DeRosa
5.       NYM 77(over 71.5 is worth thinking about)
      ex-SFG: Andres Torres, Ramon Ramirez
      

NL Cen
1.      Mil 86 
      StL 86WC
      ex-SFG: Carlos Beltran, Scott Linebrink
2.       Cin 85
3.       Pit 73
      ex-SFG: Kevin Correia, Jason Grilli
5.       Chi 73
6.       Hou 61
      ex-SFG: Matt Downs, Livan Hernandez, Henry Sosa,

NL West
1.       SFG 86
2.       Ariz 84
       Col 82
4.       LA 79
      ex-SFG: Juan Uribe
5.       SD 76:
      ex-SFG: Jesus Guzman, Will Venable's Dad.

I think Texas is the best team in baseball; they're even money to win the AL West, and that's worth an investment.  The result of the added Wild Card is there's almost no circumstance where the Yankees and Red Sox aren't in the playoffs almost every single year.  Detroit's pretty easily the best team in the Central.  That means you start the season with only 2 available playoff spots in the AL.  Putting aside the order of the six teams, my anticipation is an incredibly high percentage of prognostication will have the same six teams as do I making the AL postseason.

The NL is harder to forecast; I've got the Phillies winning the pennant, but don't see them hitting their Vegas win total. Washington/Reds/Arizona/Rockies could all take playoff spots I've given to other teams.  I think the four best teams (and maybe 5, with Detroit being the fifth) in baseball are all in the AL.  Hell, maybe the Angels are 6th.

Sports Illustrated picked a rematch of the '02 Series, with my SFG again losing to the Angels; had we re-signed Beltran and made what seems a self evident commitment to playing Belt every day that would seem more reasonable from the National League side.

The postseason is too hard to reasonably forecast, if it's Detroit or Tampa or even the Angels that wouldn't surprise.  But Texas is the best team and given the relative weakness of the West the team most likely to come out of the regular season with the best record in the AL.  The AL is the better league, so if you have to take a champ - I'll take the Rangers.

AL MVP - Pujols
AL Cy - Verlander
AL Rookie - Darvish

NL MVP - Votto
NL Cy - Halladay
NL Rookie - Harper

The Weekly Tendown February 26-March 3 2012(Leg! Leg! Leg!)

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Dear Internet:

Community returns in two weeks.

116 is here. This is Tendown 117.

1. More Entertaining than the Oscars.
Not a full list of things more entertaining than the Oscars, I'm just the one dude and it's been a long week.

Instead, just one thing - a wall of reaction shots from Oscar losers throughout history.

Beyond Jim Rash punching upward at Angelina's leg, my favorite part of the Oscar talk was all of the plaudits given to Viola Davis for shedding her wig.

                                            Tell us: Are you glad Davis rocked her natural locks at the Oscars?

Viola Davis Hair


It's a good trend, my assumption is that the Hollywood commentariat will look to extend the "all natural hair" value beyond just Viola Davis - no more wigs, weaves, extensions, Brazilian Blowouts, Heat Free Protein Bonds, Microtubes, Shrinkies, Swing Wefts, Chemical Free Highlights, or coloring of any type.  It can't be that it's only Davis who needs to embrace her natural hair - so at next year's Oscars, ladies, don't be held capture by some type of normative idea of hair hegemony.  You be who you are.


Cameron Diaz never looked better.


2. My New Favorite College Football Player
It's Joseph Williams from Virginia, hunger striking on behalf of university employees.

3. My Least Favorite Professional Athlete(s), At Least For This Week.
It's evolution denier Paul Azinger. and anti gay bigot Craig James.

4. Is Insulting Religion Protected Speech?
Apparently not in Pennsylvania.

5. Ryan Braun
One the elements of the largely manufactured PED crisis in baseball has been the inability of baseball fans who otherwise would be opposed to the war on drugs to fail to recognize that they've been conned by the morality police on the steroid issue.

Not conned is Charlie Pierce who hit two longstanding themes of mine this week:

Can someone seriously argue that it is ethical to take a drug to make a performance possible, but unethical to take a drug that makes that performance better? Isn't making a performance possible at all the ultimate performance enhancement?... Sports are rife with drugs. Without drugs of one sort or another, the NFL season would never begin, and the baseball season would end sometime in June owing to a lack of participating teams.

The steroid frenzy is of a sad piece with this history. It began, as all drug frenzies do, with a series of scare stories guaranteed to terrify the rubes. Then came the rush to pass laws and regulations without really thinking them through because this was The Greatest Crisis There Absolutely Ever Was. Then came all the people who made careers out of the laws and regulations prompted by the original frenzy. Then came all the reporters and commentators who got rich enabling the people most directly profiting from the frenzy and/or being professionally outraged on behalf of "the fans" but, really, only expressing their own anger at not being allowed to be 14 years old anymore.


6. Here's Our Current Economy:


Between 2009 and 2011, 88 percent of national income growth went to corporate profits, while just 1 percent went to wages.


I am, right now, a one issue voter.  And that's my issue.

7. Why Did Don Imus Get Fired Again?
Imus made racially insensitive jokes a few years ago, right?  Cost him his gig for awhile?

A half dozen years ago, Rush Limbaugh took what was most likely a sex tour of the Dominican Republic as he was found with a bottle of Viagra prescribed to someone else by Customs agents.

This week, Limbaugh called a law student the Republicans refused to hear testimony from at their 18th century contraception hearings a slut.

He then said she should be required to post sex tapes online.  And demonstrated a curious understanding of how birth control pills work by explaining She's having sex so frequently that she can't afford all the birth-control pills that she needs. That's what she's saying."  And also asked the musical question who bought your condoms in 6th grade?

And then apologized, saying he didn't mean a personal attack.

Which is reasonable, Limbaugh doesn't have anything personally against the law student, he hates women categorically. Unlike Santorum, who only hates women who have sex just because they feel like it.

More broadly on the contraceptive issue that a Santorum presidency would take head on (stop doing things in the sexual realm that you shouldn't be doing, so sayeth President Santorum) either we believe that our health care should be tied to employment for the vast majority of Americans or we believe that employers should be able to exercise "conscience" in determining what types of health coverage they are willing to kick in for - but when your ideology argues both, you deserve to be excluded from grown up talk.  When you yell that health care for all would be tyranny and constantly use metaphors like "we're being made to bend over and grab our ankles for Obama" but that the government should be allowed to order forcible penetration of women who elected to have constitutionally protected abortions, maybe you'll work the rubes, but serious minded people know who you are.

8. Nipple Sized Hail
I spent the week on planes sandwiched around a 5 hour job interview.

I was in the area of the country hit by tornadoes; the town I was in was not really impacted, but there was a tornado warning during the end of my interview that required moving to a safe room on campus.

I didn't experience the unusually shaped hailstorm, but "nipple sized hail" was the phrase I heard from the local weather report upon waking up Wednesday morning.

The job's a big deal; I'm in the final four and this was the last round of the process.  By next week's Tendown I should know.  I did good; I should have; I've had essentially the same interview 4 times in the past few months.  If I get this job I should be able to burn my resume for the foreseeable future.

9. The New MLB Wild Card Format
Sucks.

But had it been in place since the introduction of the WC in baseball it would have meant four additional playoff appearances for your San Francisco Giants.

10. And, of course, we end with...
Kelly Clarkson!

That's all for this time.  I'll see you next time...if there is a next time.

Your pal,

Jim

The 50 Greatest Defensive Backs in NFL History (Revised and Updated, 2017 edition)

Thursday, March 1, 2012


My football lists are the least useful of all of my lists, but they're also the most read, so as I'm now updating after the 2017 season (for the all time positional lists, it's been awhile since the prior update) I'm digging in pretty deeply.  I'm an old head so I've seen decades of football, and I like analytics, so there's a lot going into the soup.  Three threshold requirements - for those who played after the 50's at least 90 Approximate Value (sorry Lester Hayes) at least 100 games played, a ratio of at least .5AV/game.

Only the team most representative is listed with each player.  





50. John Lynch (1993-07, Bucs)
-Lynch gets the nod over fellow safeties Atwater/Lake/Dennis Smith/Darren Woodson given an AV advantage. Lynch had two career playoff picks.


49. Darren Sharper (1997-10, Packers)
-Similar NFL career to Lynch, they've subsequently diverged. Sharper was a little more valuable per game than Lynch, had more top end seasons, and added a couple of playoff sacks to two playoff picks.

48. LeRoy Butler (1990-01, Packers)
-Sharper's teammate slides in just ahead, they, 're essentially the same, Sharper a little better overall, Butler a little better per game, both had those 14 playoff appearances as part of those strong Packer teams in the 90s.

47. Eddie Meador (1959-70 Rams)
-Spent the first half of his career at corner, which works in his favor in the comparison to other safeties, he had less overall value than Lynch/Sharper/Butler but more per game value

46. Larry Wilson (1960-72 Cardinals)
-Back to back safeties from the 60s, Wilson spent entire career in St Louis, he's got the most per game value of anyone so far, never played in a playoff game.  

45. Richie Petitbon (1959-72 Bears)
-A third straight 60s safety, Petitbon had a tick more overall value than Wilson, and in 3 career playoff games had two picks and two fumble recoveries.  

44. Gary Fencik (1976-87  Bears)
-Career Bear, not long after Petitbon left the Chicago secondary, Fencik joined.  Fencik had two postseason picks and his role with the '85 Bear defense slots him here.

43. Erich Barnes (1958-71, Browns)
-First corner on the list, judging the relative merits of safeties vs corners is imprecise, but this is obviously the more important of the two roles.

42. Pat Fischer (1961-77, Redskins)
-Similar to Barnes, but a little more overall value.  

41. Cliff Harris (1970-9 Cowboys)
-Back to the safeties, less overall value than anyone in the top 50, but the postseason record really shines, 21 playoff appearances with those 70s Cowboys, 6 picks and 4 fumble recoveries.  Really stepped up when the lights were bright.  

40. Donnie Shell (1974-87, Steelers)
-More career value than anyone so far and he adds those 19 playoff games with the Steel Curtain.

39. Jake Scott (1970-8, Dolphins)
-Second least overall value of anyone in the top 50, but more per game value than anyone we'll see until the top 15 and added 5 playoff picks.  

38. Roger Wehrli (1969-82, Cardinals)
-Steady starter at right corner in St Louis for a decade.

37. Everson Walls (1981-93, Cowboys)
-Walls takes Wehrli's regular season career and adds 4 picks in 10 career postseason games.

36. Dick LeBeau (1959-72, Lions)
-Career Lion, just a tick better overall and per game than Wehrli/Walls.

35. Sam Madison (1997-08 Dolphins)
-Madison's got LeBeau's profile plus an additional ten playoff games.

34. Troy Vincent (1992-06 Eagles)
-Vincent's got more career value, less per game than the corners who have just gone, had 4 picks in 14 playoff games.

33. Ken Houston (1967-80, Redskins)
-Back to safety, most overall value of anyone on the list so far, Houston had 8 really strong NFL seasons, that's double John Lynch, for example.  

32. Brian Dawkins (1996-11, Eagles)
-Zips by Houston as the player with the most overall value on the list so far and had a good postseason career, 4 picks in 18 playoff games.  

31. Louis Wright (1975-86, Broncos)
-Over a decade as Denver's starting left corner, more per game value than any corner so far.  

30. Ty Law (1995-09, Patriots)
-Law's corner profile is really aided by the 6 picks in 13 career playoff games and the 3 Super Bowl wins.  

29. Lemar Parrish (1970-82, Bengals)
-Just about the same career value as Law, but solidly better per game (albeit without the gaudy playoff record)

28. Johnny Robinson (1960-71, Chiefs)
-Another safety, Robinson has less career value than the Houston/Dawkins group but better per game, Robinson had 4 picks in 8 career playoff games.  

27. Emlen Tunnell (1948-61, Giants)
-9 time Pro Bowl, 4 time first team All-Pro, our first player from the 50s on the list.  

26. Cornell Green (1962-74, Cowboys)
-Green's big years were at corner, but he spent the first half of the 70s as a Cowboy safety, Green's got more career value and more per game value than any corner on the list so far and he added 15 playoff appearances.  

That's the first half.  We start the top 25 with a run of corners, each setting a new mark for career value at the position.  

25. Ken Riley (1969-83, Bengals)
-The Bengals right corner for 15 years, more career value than any corner so far, three picks in his 7 postseason games.  

24. Eric Allen (1988-01, Eagles)
-Just gets by Riley for career value, had more good seasons than Riley, and had 4 picks in his 9 playoff games. 

23. Aeneas Williams (1991-04, Cardinals)
-Just gets by Allen for career value, Williams started for the Cardinals for 14 years and had six picks in six career playoff games.  7 good seasons for Williams.

22. Willie Wood (1960-71, Packers)
-Back to the safeties, Wood is Tunnell with more titles, 5 NFL Championships with that 60s Packers juggernaut.

21. Troy Polamalu (2003-14, Steelers)
-More per game value than anyone on the list so far, added 3 picks in 15 career playoff games and won a couple of Super Bowls.

20. Darrelle Revis (2007-17, Jets)
-Revis had the same per game value as Polamalu, but did it from the corner spot.  

19. Jimmy Johnson (1961-76, 49ers)
-16 years a 49er, almost all of them starting at left corner, Johnson's got more career value than anyone on the list so far.

18. Darrell Green (1983-02, Redskins)
-Green then passes Johnson for most career value on the list, he spent two decades with the Redskins and added 6 picks in 18 playoff games.

17. Bobby Boyd (1960-68, Colts)
-Only one guy on the list has more per game value than Boyd, stalwart left corner for the 60s Colts

16. Paul Krause (1964-79, Vikings)
-And it will be awhile before we see anyone with more overall value than Krause, who added 19 playoff games with that great Viking defense, he got 3 picks and scored a touchdown in those games.  

15. Ronde Barber (1997-12, Bucs)
-More career and per game value than Green, Barber gave the Bucs 16 seasons. 

14. Charles Woodson (1998-15, Raiders)
-Mostly a corner, Woodson and Barber have very similar profiles, Woodson played in 17 playoff games.  

13. Mel Blount (1970-83, Steelers)
-Blount has less per game value than anyone still remaining on the list, he added 4 picks in 19 playoff games with that Steeler defense.

12. Yale Lary (1952-64, Lions)
-Most per game value on the list, although he was also an excellent punter which adds to that total, Lary comes in as the 4th best safety of all time.  

11. Mel Renfro (1964-77, Cowboys)
-Renfro split his career between safety and corner and comes in just a tick outside the top ten, he added 4 picks in 21 playoff games.

10. Lem Barney (1967-77, Lions)
A couple of years after Lary left Detroit's secondary, Barney joined, he also draws value from years as a kick returner.

9. Champ Bailey (1999-13, Broncos)
-More career value than Green, a per game value that rivaled Revis, a couple of picks in 11 postseason games, just a terrific profile for Bailey who definitely deserves this slot.  

8. Mike Haynes (1976-89, Patriots)
-I'm a Niner fan, so all of my favorite players are Niners - in the non Niner division, my favorite ever corner was Haynes and that tandem with Hayes was as good as corner play from one team got.  Just put two guys on the edge and lock the other side down.  

7. Ed Reed (2002-13, Ravens)
-Second best safety ever and the best ever who got all of his value from that position.  Reed had 9 picks in 15 playoff games.  9.  

6. Willie Brown (1963-78, Raiders)
-17 playoff games, 7 picks, 3 touchdowns.  More career value than Haynes, more per game value than Bailey.

5. Herb Adderley (1961-72, Packers)
-15 playoff games, 5 picks, Adderly had more per game value than every corner we've seen except Boyd/Barney.  

4. Night Train Lane (1952-64, Lions)
-At 34 years old he was one of the best players in football; he had 14 picks in 12 games as a Rams rookie.  When you're talking about playmakers at corner, there's this guy and the next guy.

3. Deion Sanders (1989-05, Falcons)
-more career value than Brown, more per game value than Haynes (some of it is kick return related) 5 picks in a dozen playoff games.  

2. Ronnie Lott (1981-92, 49ers)
-more career value than anyone so far, more per game value than any safety on the list, Lott played in 20 playoff games, had 9 picks, 2 scores and won 4 Super Bowls, he's closer to being number one on this list than number 3.

1. Rod Woodson (1987-03, Steelers)
-more approximate value than any DB ever and more per game value than Deion (Woodson also had kick return value) plus 20 playoff games.  Woodson's career value+years as a corner slot him above Lott.   











Athlete of the Month: February, 2012

Monday, February 27, 2012

You can find January's award here.



Eli Manning.  Runners-up: Jeremy Lin, LeBron James, Kevin Durant.

Two months down, ten to go in the race for Athlete of the Year. 

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