2011 College Football Picks, Week 2

Last week,  I went 4-6

As I said last week, I make 10 plays a week.  Until I decide to make more. This week I'm on 15.  Lines good as of Thursday evening.

Iowa -6.5 Iowa St (loss)
Ohio St. -18.5 Toledo (loss)
NC St. -1.5 Wake(loss)
S Miss v. Marshall Under 53(win)
Akron +15 Temple(loss)
N Texas +21.5 Houston(loss)
UConn + 2 Vandy(loss)
BYU +7 Texas(win)
BC +7 Central Florida(loss)
Florida -23 UAB(win)
N Illinois -4.5 Kansas(loss)
Georgia +3 South Carolina (push)
Alabama -10 Penn St. (win)
Auburn +5 Miss St.(win)
Minn -20 NMex St. (loss)

5-9-1
Overall: 9-15-1

I Pick Every NFL Game in 2011 - Week 1

Same deal as every year; I'll pick both straight and against the spread.  Those picks will get better by midseason, particularly the straight up picks.  For multiple reasons, I'm likely to be on dogs for awhile.

Saints +4.5 Packers (GB wins) (loss ATS/win straight up)
Ravens -2 Pittsburgh (win/win)
Detroit +1.5 TB (TB wins) (win/loss)
Atlanta -3 Chicago (loss/loss)
Buff +6 KC (KC wins) (win/loss)
Hous -9 Indy (Houston straight is my suicide pick) (win/win)
Philly -4.5 StL (win/win)
Bengals +6.5 Cle (Cle wins) (win/loss)
Tenn +2.5 Jax (Jax wins) (win/win)
Wash +3 NYG (NYG wins) (win/loss)
Carol +7 Ariz (Ariz wins) (push/win)
Sea +5.5 Niners (Niners win) (loss/win)
Minn +8.5 SD (SD wins) (win/win)
Dall +4.5 NYJ (NY wins) (win/win)
Mia +7 NE (NE wins)(loss/win)
Den -3 Oak (loss/loss)

ATS 10-5-1
Straight 10-6

2011 NFL Predictions.

I make predictions.

Historically, I've had success with season long win totals.  Last year, I whipped some sportsbook ass.  I'll put my projected wins first and the current sportsbook total next. Edit - I made my final changes at 6:00 on Thursday, just ahead of kickoff for week one.  Other than moving the Rams to first in the West, it's essentially unchanged since the initial post.

AFC East
1. New England (11, 11.5)
No play here.

2. New York (9, 10)
-You know, the defense slid a little bit last year; they don't get to the quarterback as much as you'd suspect given the bravado.  Right now, you can go under 10 and get even money to do it.  I don't love it, but a small investment on the Jets to go under 10 makes sense.

3. Miami (7, 7.5)
-I may kick them back to 7-9.  I keep swapping between the Fish going 7-9 and the Pats going 12-4.

4. Buffalo (7, 5.5)
-There's an over play here.  I may wind up with Steve Johnson on all 3 fantasy teams.

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh (12, 10.5)
-Go in.  7 of my Top 100 players in the NFL are Steelers.

2. Baltimore (9, 10)
-10 looks just as good as 9.  It's Saturday night as I type my notes into the blog; I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind until Thursday morning.  I might bump the Ravens to 10.  I'll need to find someone to drop a win. I don't think they get to 11 wins though, if you feel like playing Baltimore, go under.  I'm keeping them at 9.

3. Cleveland (8, 7)
Cleveland has a particularly soft first half of the schedule; what I want you to do is look for a first 8 games win total, see if you can get 3.5, then go in.  You should play over the 7, just don't freak out in December.

4. Cincinnati (6, 5.5)
No play.

AFC South
1. Houston (10, 9)
No play

2. Jacksonville (7, 6.5)
A small over makes sense; do you recall a team cutting its starting quarterback twice right before the start of the season like the Jags have done, first with Leftwich and now Garrard?

3. Indianapolis (6, off)
-If you can find a book taking Colts action, look to play the under. Let me be the first person to offer the following "Remember how the Spurs got Duncan" scenario.  Manning misses the season.  The Colts go 3-13 and get the top pick.  I've already written the sign "If the Colts Get Luck, We Riot."

I have a bit of a man crush on Andrew Luck.  I'm willing to carve the Canton bust right now. 

4. Tennessee (5, 6.5)
-Take a six win team, add a coaching change, quarterback change and the lockout - throw in Britt's legal troubles and Johnson's holdout, and 7 wins seems long to me, and that's what it takes to beat you.  Hasselbeck's not a good quarterback anymore, and if they throw some white flag starts Locker's way late in the season, those are losses too.  I do not like this team.  If someone's going to challenge Carolina for the number one pick, it's Tennessee.

AFC West
1. San Diego (11, 10)
-10 is a push, and in this division, I don't think SD wins less than ten games.  A small over makes sense.

2. Kansas City (7, 7.5)
-Under.  Tougher schedule.

3. Denver (7, 6)
-Maybe a small over: I don't think Orton goes 5-11.

4. Oakland (6, 6.5)
-A tiny under.  Especially if you can get the number at 7.

This would make the playoffs:

1. Steelers
2. Chargers
3. Patriots
4. Texans
5. Ravens
6. Jets

I'll take the Chargers to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia (11, 10.5)
Yeah, you can play that. Over,

2. Dallas (9, 9)
I don't think they're liable to get 10.  Small under


3. New York (7, 9)
Under.

4. Washington (6, 6)
I really, really don't think it's likely they go 7-9...okay, you can make a small play here.  This is another team in line for that top draft pick.

NFC North
1. Green Bay (11, 11.5)
The Pack went 10-6 last year.  2 more wins is a lot of wins.  Small under.

2. Chicago (8, 8)
No play

3. Detroit (8, 8)
No play

4. Minnesota (7, 7)
Nope.

NFC South
1. Atlanta (10, 10)
Nope

2. New Orleans (10, 10)
Nope

3. Tampa (7, 8)
Why you gotta hate me, Vegas?

4. Carolina (6, 4.5)
The Panthers will have an interesting decision to make with the top pick in the 2012 draft.  Hard to get dollar for dollar for Newton, and impossible to deal the pick.  I mean, there isn't a circumstance that I can think of where I'd deal that pick.  I would rather have that pick than lose in the conference title game.  You give me that choice right now, I can either have the top pick, meaning I go 2-14, or go 12-4 and get beat in the conference title, and I want the pick and it isn't close.  Anything short of a Super Bowl appearance is not worth Andrew Luck.  You can play a small over here.

NFC West

1. St. Louis (8, 7.5)

2. Niners (7, 7.5)
No play.

3. Cardinals (7, 7)
-Nope

4. Seattle (6, 6)

So, that makes the playoffs:

1. Philadelphia
2. Atlanta
3. Green Bay
4. Rams
5. New Orleans
6. New York

I'll take the Eagles to beat the Falcons.

That would give me a Chargers/Eagles Super Bowl.  I'll take San Diego. There you go.

The 100 Best Players in the NFL - 2011 edition.

Over the summer, NFL Network did a series ranking the Top 100 players in the league, determined by player vote.

This is not by player vote.  As you know, I'm not a player.  I just crush a lot.

It's also not a ranking - these 100 best players in the NFL aren't in qualitative order, they are only grouped by position.  I really don't see a good way to cross-compare positions, even though I pretend to do so sometimes.  And even within the positional groups, I haven't ordered them.  All this is is my list of the 100 best players in the NFL.  I only added one wrinkle, every team is represented.  This is the second of my series of  "Hey, football's back" posts.

QB
Tom Brady NE
Ben Roethlisberger Pitt
Joe Flacco Balt
Peyton Manning Indy
Phillip Rivers SD
Michael Vick Phil
Eli Manning NYG
Tony Romo Dal
Aaron Rodgers GB
Matt Ryan QB
Drew Brees QB
Josh Freeman QB

RB
Rashard Mendenhall Pitt
Ray Rice Balt
Arian Foster Hou
Maurice Jones Drew Jax
Chris Johnson Ten
Jamal Charles KC
Darren McFadden Oak
LeSean McCoy Phil
Adrian Peterson Min
Michael Turner Atl
Frank Gore Niners
Stephen Jackson StL
Peyton Hillis Cle

WR
Mike Wallace Pitt
Andre Johnson Hou
Reggie Wayne Indy
Dwayne Bowe KC
Brandon Lloyd Den
Kenny Britt - Tenn
Vincent Jackson - SD
Calvin Johnson Det
Roddy White Atl
Hakeem Nicks NYG
Larry Fitzgerald Ariz

TE
Antonio Gates SD
Jermichael Finley GB
Vernon Davis - SF
Jason Witten - Dall

OL
Logan Mankins NE
Nick Mangold NYJ
D'Brickashaw Ferguson NYJ
Jake Long Mia
Michael Oher Balt
Joe Thomas Cle
Andrew Whitworth Cin
Marcus McNeill SD
Ryan Clady Den
Chris Snee NYG
Jahri Evans NO

DL
Vince Wilfork NE
Kyle Williams Buf
Haloti Ngata Balt
Dwight Freeney Indy
Robert Mathis Indy
Elvis Dumervill Den
Richard Seymour Oak
Trent Cole Phil
Justin Tuck NYG
Osi Umenyiora NYG
BJ Raji GB
Julius Peppers Chi
Jared Allen Min
Kevin Williams Min
Ndamukong Suh Det
John Abraham Atl
Charles Johnson Car
Justin Smith Niners
Darnell Dockett Ariz
Chris Long StL

LB
Jerod Mayo NE
Cameron Wake Mia
Lawrence Timmons Pitt
LaMarr Woodley Pitt
James Harrison Pitt
Ray Lewis Balt
Terrell Suggs Balt
Mario Williams Hou
DeMeco Ryans Hou
Brian Cushing Hou
Shaun Phillips SD
Tamba Hali KC
DeMarcus Ware Dal
London Fletcher Was
Clay Matthews GB
Patrick Willis Niners

DB
Darrelle Revis NYJ
Troy Polamalu Pitt
Ed Reed Balt
Leon Hall Cin
Jonathan Joseph Hou
Eric Weddle SD
Brandon Flowers KC
Eric Berry KC
Champ Bailey Den
Stanford Routt Oak
Asante Samuel Phil
Nnamdi Asomugha Phil
Earl Thomas Sea

2011 Fantasy Football Top 100

I've got 3 fantasy football drafts coming in the next two days.  My main suggestion is to mock draft from your draft spot - the flow of the draft from position 10 looks very different than position 3.

Here's my top 100 board.

1. Peterson (I have the first pick in my last draft, I'll take Peterson.)
2. Rice (I have the second pick in my second draft, I will take Rice; in the mock for that draft, I did take Rice)
3. Foster
4. LMcCoy
5. Mendenhall (I got Mendenhall with the 12th pick in my draft this morning, which I anticipated, as that's how it worked in my mock.  Mock from your draft slot.  Now, in my mock for the second draft, Mendenhall was still available at pick 23, where I took him, and will again tonight if he's on the board.)
6. CJohnson
7. AJohnson (I got Johnson with the 13th pick on the wraparound.  Again, exactly as it had gone in the mock.     If you've got the back of the order wraparound pick and Johnson's gone, you should pick Roddy White; the top line receivers are shallow. Both White and Johnson were gone in my mock for draft 2 before I got back around to my second round pick. That left me a tough decision with pick 26.)
8. MJD
9. SJax
10. Hillis (Hillis goes lower than this, he almost made it back around to me picking 36th in the third round, he didn't - but if you're picking, say 9th, you can maybe get him in the third round.  Hillis made it all the way back to me with pick 47 in my second mock; that's 20 spots lower than his ADP, do I'm not expecting him to be there tonight, but you can get him much lower than pick ten.)
11. Turner
12. Rivers (I almost got him 36th, I didn't, but in my second draft, the one where I am picking second, I'll pick Rice, then expect him to be around for my second/third picks.  Okay, in the mock for my second draft, Rivers was still on the board, but also on the board was Fitzgerald, and since I didn't get Johnson/White, I decided to lose Rivers, take Fitzgerald, and then take Ben when the draft came back around my way.  I still don't know which is the better decision.)
13. Charles
14. RWhite (I haven't done my mock for the second draft yet, but I might be looking at Rivers/White with the second/third picks)
15. Forte
16. Rodgers
17. Benson - I got Benson 37th this morning, with my 4th round pick, if Rivers is gone before my second pick, I'm likely to go White/Benson.  I went in hoping for Benson at that 37th spot, but he was gone pretty far before that in the mock, so didn't anticipate it.
18. Matthews - I wouldn't pick him before the 4th, he was still available at 36/37 this morning.
19. Vick - people will pay more than this, I won't get either Vick or Rodgers
20. Greene - Benson/Matthews/Greene were all lined up for me at 36/37, I only took one and then got a QB I'll mention in a moment, but in my mock I went Matthews/Greene.
21. Fitzgerald - got him in the mock for my second draft at pick 26.
22. FJones
23. Gore
24. Brees - This is who I took at 36.  My target is really Ben, but I didn't want him until 60/61.  It worked in the mock, but just barely - and if I miss on Ben, I'm not happy with the next step down.  So, with Brees still on the board, I chose to get him here, passing on Matthews/Greene/Felix Jones, rather than sweat it out for Ben.  I think, as it turns out, he still would have been around.
25. Blount
26. Jennings
27. McFadden
28. Brady - Obviously, I won't get Brady.
29. Austin - After having gone RB-WR-QB-RB, you know I have to get best available WR at 60/61, I almost got Austin.
30. CJohnson - I won't get Johnson.
31. Bradshaw - I'm also looking at a 3rd RB, for a flex spot, in 60/61, so I'm filling my board with backs and receivers.  I didn't get Bradshaw either.
32. Ben - My QB strategy is Rivers early and if  it doesn't fit, then Ben.  I've got two drafts left and that's my expectation.  If Rivers is still there in my 3rd, I get him.  If not, I wait until the 6th for Ben.  Took Ben in the 5th, at pick 50 in my second mock.  After passing on Rivers, I wasn't going to wait until pick 71 to see if he was free.  I think I'm leaning toward doing this the other way if I have the dilemma with the real draft, taking Rivers and then scrambling for receivers.
33. Wallace
34. SJohnson - this is who I got with the 60th pick this morning, I was pleased.  In the second mock I got him at 74.
35. Wells - and this is who I got 61st to be my flex.  In the second mock, he was still around at pick 74, but as I had 3 backs on the roster, I took a receiver instead.
36. Nicks
37. Tampa Williams
38. Holmes - This morning, I'm now thinking about 84/85, and one of those picks is going to be my third wideout, Holmes almost made it.
39. VJax
40. Bowe
41. Lloyd - I just missed out getting Lloyd 84th.  I took Lloyd 71st in my second mock, note, I took him 3 spots ahead of Johnson; that's because my working belief is there's a better chance that the guy in between my two picks takes Lloyd than Johnson.  Now, this is a spot I'll have to re-evaluate, as there wasn't a defense taken at 74, but several were gone by the time the draft worked back to me at 95; I may have to take a defense in the 7th round of this draft.
42. Addai
43. BG-E
44. Gates - I love Gates, but I won't pay for him.  I wound up getting an end of the draft TE, and I expect that to be the case in each draft.
45. Best
46. Colston
47. Ryan - If I were to take the Ben strategy but miss, I'd probably grab Ryan.
48. Boldin
49. Wayne
50. Welker

51. Ingram
52. Jacobs - I got Jacobs as my 4th back with pick 98 in my second mock.
53. Romo
54. Harvin
55. Steelers - The defenses started to go in the mock in the 60s, enough that I set as my point to take one my 8th pick, at 85.  In the actual draft, only the Steelers had gone, before my 8th pick.  In the standard CBS $ leagues, there's some points in defense, so I always rank them higher than you might expect.
56. RBush - he almost made it back around to be at 108/109 when I was picking my 3rd WR/4th RB.  I would have gone TE at that point had there been value on the board.  There was not.  If your defenses aren't as valuable, you could go TE where I went defense.  I got him in my second mock as my 5th back at 119.
57. Marshall
58. AJ Green - this is my third WR, I got him 84th  I got Green at 146 in my second mock.
59. Moreno
60. Tolbert
61. Freeman
62. Jets - and thats who I got 85th.
63. FJackson
64. Manningham
65. Schaub
66. JStewart
67. DThomas
68. DJax
69. VD
70. Moss - weird that there's only one Moss left
71. Bryant
72. DWilliams
73. Bryant
74. DWilliams
75. Hightower
76. Manning.  The Younger
77. Starks
78. Witten
79. Rice - I got him 108th as my 4th receiver and was very pleased; thought about taking him as high as 84th, but he fell here.
80. LT - and I got Tomlinson 109th as my 4th RB.  If the Jets will just bench Greene again like last year, I'll look to sell high on LT right after his first solid game.
81. SSmith
82. Eagles
83. Lynch
84. McGahee
85. JJones - right after I picked AJ, the next guy picked Jones
86. Knox - I thought about Knox over Rice, but he almost fell all the way to 132.
87. Packers
88. Bears - the Bears were my defense in the second mock at 95.
89. Clark
90. Maclin
91. Crabtree
92. Ford
93. Flaco
94. Chad
95. RWilliams
96. Evans
97. Moore
98. Garcon
99. Finley
100. Peyton

In both my first draft and my second mock I wound up with Billy Cundiff, Zach Miller, Colt McCoy.  In the first real draft I got Justin Forsett as my fifth RB.  I'd expect to get McCoy and Miller in every draft.

Team One:
QB Brees
RB Mendenhall
RB Benson
WR AJohnson
WR SJohnson
Flex Wells
TE ZMiller
K Cundiff
Def Jets

QB McCoy
RB Tomlinson
RB Forsett
WR Green
WR Rice

Team Two:
QB Roethlisberger
RB Peterson
RB Benson
WR Fitzgerald
WR SJohnson
Flex FJones
TE ZMiller
K Cundiff
Def Eagles

QB McCoy
RB Stewart
RB Starks
WR Green
WR Rice

Team Three:
QB Roethlisberger
RB Peterson
RB Hillis
WR Fitzgerald
WR Britt
Flex Matthews
TE Keller
Def Steelers
K Cundiff

QB McCoy
RB Starks
RB TJones
WR Green
WR Thomas