The Weekly Tendown, January 30 2011 - February 5 2011

Dear Internet:

Dear Internet:

I'm going to just slide in under the Sunday wire.  Here's Tendown 63.

1. I Write the Stories.
I spent the week posting Super Bowl lists.  The 25 greatest performances in Super Bowl history.  My Super Bowl 45 prediction. (I had the Steelers getting 3, had the Packers to win outright.  Thought I'd push for a minute there.  That finishes off my playoffs, 8-3 against the spread and straight up.) Here's Every Super Bowl winner by Pythagorean record.  That first one took like three days; this is not a great use of my time.

I'll check some numbers later this week, but Rodgers sure looks like a good MVP pick.  Not the best night for Christina Aguilera.

2. My Ex's Parents
In the spirit of my movie pitch in a previous Tendown, The Jannetty, here's another romantic comedy.

One sentence pitch - a guy moves in with his ex's parents.

So, the economy is bad, a guy loses his job, his longtime girlfriend breaks up with him - and as people do, he has to move back home with his parents (he's like 30).  But his parents are dead - so he moves in with his ex's parents.  Hilarity ensues

They live several states away - they had a good relationship with the guy, but virtually none with their daughter.  So, they've never visited the parents - but the guy facebooks them, maybe in secret.  He has nowhere to go - but they really like him, so he moves to his ex's old hometown, small town, several states away.  

The woman's sort of cold, prickly, type A-ish.  The guy is affable, not particularly successful.  The guy moves to his ex-girlfriend's small hometown, where she hasn't been in years - and he spends his time trying to repair her relationships from her past - trying to fix her past essentially.  He's able, in talking with her parents, her old friends, her high school boyfriend, to get a better understanding of who she is - none of them have good memories of her, but he creates an impression of her that is favorable, almost heroic - in an attempt to aid her in some way.

We get the woman to come home - I think through some sort of honor that she will receive in her hometown, a key to the city/high school alum of the year type of thing - an honor based on this person he's purporting her to be.  She comes back home - goes through the discomfort of being there, but is able to become the person that they believe her to be, based on how they treat her.

The man has always been in love with her, but now she grows closer to that high school boyfriend - and that allows for the man to grow (why is he so well liked - perhaps because he's overly selfless, spending so much time, for example, trying to fix the life of his ex girlfriend, and why is he so selfless, lack of confidence, fear of rejection if he puts himself out there) so he has to decide if he'll put his own needs ahead of the high school boyfriend, put himself on the line to win her over - in trying to fix her past, he winds up repairing his future.

But with jokes.

3. Who Made the Moon?
I think of Bill O' Reilly as not stupid.  Wrong, about everything, as right wingers are, but not stupid.

Recall, a couple of weeks ago - he argued that a god must exist because otherwise, why does the tide go in and out?

The answer - the moon - apparently was presented to him, as he responded this week - "well, how did the moon get there."

Here's Colbert's response.

4. Rape With Benefits
Last week, I mentioned the Republican proposal to limit the availability of federal funds for abortion to "forcible rape" - as opposed to other types of rape.  They thought better of it this week, but not before Kristen Schaal killed them dead on The Daily Show.

5. Not a Conspiracy, No.
Students of mine rarely want to discuss current political events, particularly international events, but two this week wanted to know if there was some type of conspiracy to take over the world.  Why?  Here's Maddow talking about Simple Jack.

Egypt's a populist uprising.  You know, about freedom and stuff.  We're for that.  That's why we've spent the better part of the decade killing Iraqis, right?

Here's Chomsky


What’s happening is absolutely spectacular. The courage and determination and commitment of the demonstrators is remarkable. And whatever happens, these are moments that won’t be forgotten and are sure to have long-term consequences, as the fact that they overwhelmed the police, took Tahrir Square, are staying there in the face of organized pro-Mubarak mobs, organized by the government to try to either drive them out or to set up a situation in which the army will claim to have to move in to restore order and then to maybe install some kind of military rule, whatever. It’s very hard to predict what’s going to happen. But the events have been truly spectacular. And, of course, it’s all over the Middle East. In Yemen, in Jordan, just about everywhere, there are the major consequences.


The United States, so far, is essentially following the usual playbook. I mean, there have been many times when some favored dictator has lost control or is in danger of losing control. There’s a kind of a standard routine—Marcos, Duvalier, Ceausescu, strongly supported by the United States and Britain, Suharto: keep supporting them as long as possible; then, when it becomes unsustainable—typically, say, if the army shifts sides—switch 180 degrees, claim to have been on the side of the people all along, erase the past, and then make whatever moves are possible to restore the old system under new names. That succeeds or fails depending on the circumstances.


6. Health Care
Here's analysis of the finding that Health care reform is unconstitutional.

7. How to Beat the Lottery

Here's the best article you'll read this week.  It's about cracking the code for a scratch off lottery ticket.

8. How much would you pay to not be Governor of California?
How about 144 million dollars of your own money?

9. The New Jim Crow
It's the war on drugs.

10. The World Champion San Francisco Giants

It takes 11 postseason wins to become World Series champions.  This was our sixth.  NLCS.  Game 4.

Game 4 was what we had come to expect - a nearly 4 hour long gutbucket of anxiety.  2 singles off of and 2 wild pitches by Joe Blanton got us a first inning run.  Posey drove in his second of the game in the third, doubling home Huff to put us up 2-0.  Madison Bumgarner, 21 years old (5.1 combined WAR/WARP) got into trouble in the 4th, putting 2 on with 1 out - but got Werth and Rollins, the latter on a called 3rd strike, to maintain our lead. 

But he didn't survive another inning.  Two consecutive singles started off their fifth - and after a successful Joe Blanton sacrifice, two consecutive singles cut the lead in half and chased Bumgarner.  Casilla (4.6, which is a strong year for a short reliever) followed up his crummy Game 2 with a crummy Game 3, giving up a 2 run double to Placido Polanco - then a walk, hit batsman, and a wild pitch that gave the Phils 4 in the inning and we were down 4-2.

We got one back in our half - Aubrey Huff (12 - our best first base season in two decades) singled home Andres Torres to get us into their bullpen - and that paid off an inning later when we scored two in the 6th to retake the lead 5-4 after a Burrell walk and back to back doubles by Cody Ross and the forgotten Pablo Sandoval. 

Like most SFG fans, I have a strong affection for Sandoval, who had emerged in 2009 as our best position player since Bonds, but his bat dropped off badly in 2010 and he was an afterthought in the postseason - he had a chance here, after that two run double, to really re-assert himself - but with one out and the bases loaded in the 7th, he ground into a double play.

Our set up man during the season was Sergio Romo (4) he and Casilla really a terrific late inning bridge to Wilson - but Romo was blistered by the Braves in the NLDS, so his coming on in the 8th to protect our 5-4 lead, after an inning opening  Howard double, felt loaded with all sorts of peril.  

It was a reasonable feeling.  Werth doubled to tie it at 5, and the series was in the balance.

Nothing for us in the bottom of the 8th.  Nothing for them (whew) in their 9th.

The 11th pitcher of the game was Roy Oswalt, who had burned through us pretty easily in Game 2 - but after a Sanchez lineout opened the inning - we got him.  Huff singled.  Posey's fourth hit of the game singled him to third - and Juan Uribe's fly ball to left scored the winning run.

And 3 games to 1 was a pretty big hammer to drop.


That's all for this time.  I'll be back next time, if there is a next time...


Your pal,


Jim

All 54 Super Bowl MVPs Re-awarded

What I'm doing here is taking a look at each of the Super Bowl MVPs and asking the question "who really should have won each award."

Like the Heisman, too often the winning QB is just handed the trophy and non skill position players are totally ignored.  Sometimes - they've gotten it right. No, there's not a unified metric I'm using for this discussion.  Ideally, to where I'd like it to lead is a list of the ten greatest performances in SB history.  Or, as it turns out, the top 25.

I'll put the actual named MVP in parentheses next to my new winner.

SB 1 - Max McGee (Bart Starr)
-Starr's a good pick; I've got his performance as the 17th best quarterbacked game in SB history - but McGee's numbers - 7 catches, 138 yards, 2 TD - are dominant.  The Packers couldn't run the ball at all; McGee was the center of the offense.

SB 2 - Herb Adderly (Bart Starr)
-Starr's game was still good, I've got it 30th all time, it's particularly good given the downturn in Packer skill players and no standout offensive game other than Starr's.  But he was sacked 4 times, and Herb Adderly took a pick back for a touchdown and was the focal point of shutting down Lamonica/Biletnikoff in what was the latter's best season. In a game this one sided you can't consider a player from the losing team - but Big Ben Davidson owned the line of scrimmage with 14 tackles and a sack.

SB 3 - Matt Snell - (Joe Namath)
-Namath's game was fine, better when you consider the quality of the Colt defense (I've got his game 40th all time), but this is only a close race between Snell, who touched the ball on almost half of all of the Jets plays, and George Sauer, who caught 8 balls for 133 yards.  Snell's the pick, in a ball control, let's keep it close and try to beat them, type of strategy for a Jet team that was way, way outmanned by the Colts - Snell was the guy in whose hands was the game.  30 carries, 121 yards, a touchdown; plus 4 catches for 40 yards.

SB 4 - Buck Buchanan (Len Dawson)
-Dawson was good, I have his as the 33rd best QB SB ever, but were I to go with a KC offensive player I'd look at how the left side of the line, Jim Tyrer and Ed Budde, pushed the Purple People Eaters Marshall and Page around.  Instead though, I'll pick the first defensive MVP so far; the Vikes leading rusher had 26 yards, Buchanan had 7 tackles and a sack, his control of the line of scrimmage just by a hair gives him the nod over the left side of the Chiefs offensive line.

SB 5 - Mike Curtis (Chuck Howley)
-Points to the writers for not only picking a defensive player, but one from the losing team in an outside the box selection.  But they got it wrong, Mike Curtis picked off a Craig Morton pass in Cowboy territory with the score tied to set up the game winning FG at the gun.  In a game dominated by defense (Curtis also had six tackles) that was the play that decided the contest.

The best SB game from the first five years?  I'm inclined to say McGee.

SB 6 - Duane Thomas (Roger Staubach)
-It's tight among a lot of Cowboys; I've got his game the 19th best all time; it was a game really controlled by the Cowboy flex defense - Bob Lilly, Lee Roy Jordan, Cliff Harris were the up the middle keys to the defense and really controlled the Dolphins.  By a narrow margin I'll take Thomas - he led the team both in rushing (19 attemtps, 95 yards, touchdown) and receiving (3 for 17 yards) and he seemed the key to the 252 yards Dallas got on the ground.  I could be moved to a different selection in this game, and Staubach might be the best option and I could be not picking him based on the conceit of this list.

SB 7 - Manny Fernandez (Jake Scott)
-I'm replacing one defensive player for another - but I'd suggest Fernandez owned the game from the line of scrimmage with ten tackles and a sack.  Scott had two picks; he's not a bad pick - but watch this game sometime and just see how Fernandez eats up the middle of the Redskins line.

SB 8 - Larry Csonka (Larry Csonka)
-Fernandez was similarly successful the following year, but Csonka, with 33 carries, 145 yards and 2 scores might now slip by McGee as having the best game in SB history to this date.  I don't feel badly about Manny having given him the award the year before - I'll say the writers got this one right.


SB 9 - Joe Greene (Franco Harris)
-Franco had 158 yards rushing, and there isn't a good metric to support Greene (outside of his pick), but what happened to the Viking offense was murderous - Tarkenton had the 4th worst QB game in SB history, the leading rusher had 18 yards, it was a game controlled by the Steel Curtain.  I might go Lambert had he played a full game; Ernie Holmes might have had a better game than Greene - but I'll go with Mean Joe as the focal point of the defense.  I could be persuaded otherwise.

SB 10 - Lynn Swann (Lynn Swann)
-My apologies to Bradshaw, who had the 16th best QB game in SB history, to LC Greenwood and Dwight White, who both had 3 sacks - and especially to Jack Lambert and his 14 tackles.  In terms of number of good candidates, the Steelers in X are the leaders to that date.  I'll take Swann and his 161 yards receiving/touchdown.  The degree of difficulty of the catches is hard to overlook - I'm not sure what offense the Steelers have if not for Swann's acrobatic game.  I'm not going to pick any ties, but a Swann/Lambert tie may have been the way to go in 10.

Who had the best game through 10 SB?  See, that's hard...Franco's 9 might have been better than Csonka's 8...and Lambert might have been better than Swann.

I'm going to say Csonka.

1. Csonka
2. McGee
3. Swann
4. Fernandez
5. Lambert


SB 11 - Art Shell (Fred Biletnikoff)
-Jim Marshall didn't have a tackle; Alan Page walked off the field before the game ended; Stabler's game is the 21st best SB QB performance ever; Clarence Davis ran 16 times for 137 yards (105 on the left side).  What that adds up to for me is Shell and Upshaw.  Biletnikoff was okay, 4 balls for 79 - but he's just an indefensibly bad pick.  You'd put him behind Stabler and Stabler behind Davis - and if you're looking at the real strength behind those Raider teams - it's the left side of the OL.  Upshaw was better, I'd suggest, than Shell and by a wide amount for his full career - but if you make me pick between them for SB 11 - I'm taking the tackle.

I like these Vikings teams; they're under-appreciated and Tarkenton, like most QB who got a lot of value from rushing the ball, is historically underrated - but they were just awful in the SB.  Here's my favorite stat - they played in four SB..

...and didn't score a single point in the first half in any of them.  There's a book in that somewhere.

SB 12 Harvey Martin (Harvey Martin/Randy White)
-The worst QB game in SB history - Craig Morton in SB 12.  This was a game controlled completely by the Dallas defensive line. I'm not picking any ties, so forced to choose between the two MVPs; I'll take Martin's two sacks and forced fumble.  This is the first full SB of my memory; I was 7.  I have flashes from the year before, but I lived in the Bay Area and I can't really recall if it was from the actual game or from highlights.  This year though the Orange Crush defense against America's Team was a narrative I clearly understood.  I rooted for the Cowboys that day out of a Raider motivated dislike of the Broncos.  I did not watch this game at home...it may have been at my grandparents, my recollection is hazy.

SB 13 Terry Bradshaw (Terry Bradshaw)
-A terrifically quarterbacked game, Bradshaw and Staubach threw for a combined 7 scores and each had passer ratings over 100.  Bradshaw was the right call here - this was clearly the best of his 4 SB and remains the 8th best QB'd SB in history.  Big games for both Steeler receivers and another double digit tackle performance by Lambert - but this one is Bradshaw's game.  I was wholeheartedly for the Steelers; you had to pick a side, as an American in the late 70s, not unlike the Bird/Magic rivalry.  My anti-Dallas consciousness had evolved as an 8 year old (America's team?  Screw you guys) and I threw in my lot with the Steelers.  This game I definitely watched at my grandparents house, I recall going outside at halftime to throw a nerf football up in the air; I would try to play football games by myself, being both teams, deciding how far I had to go to get a first down, throwing the ball and running underneath to try to make a catch.  You gotta make your own fun.

SB 14 Jack Lambert (Terry Bradshaw)
-This is a dead on switch; I'm going to call it the best defensive performance to that date - the once dominant Steeler DL which had protected an undersized Lambert at MLB had begun its decline - leaving this game to Lambert to win; 14 tackles and a game saving pick - the Rams were in Steeler territory, down five with just a handful of minutes to play when Lambert's pick ended the drive.  My grandmother had passed away in the intervening year, but again I watched the game at my grandparents house.  I was still solidly behind the Steelers, motivated both by a sense of loyalty from the previous year and a dislike of the Rams, who I now recognized were the natural rival of my 49ers.

SB 15 Jim Plunkett (Jim Plunkett)
-Rod Martin had 3 picks and five tackles - it is a superlative, just out of the box performance and would have made him the MVP in maybe a dozen of the first 14 SB.   But Plunkett's passer rating of 145 was supercrazy - and it still the 5th best QB game in SB history.  This game I watched with my mom; we were heavily pro-Raiders; my dad and I cheered violently in that Cleveland playoff game when Brian Sipe's inability to throw the ball into Lake Erie caused a Mike Davis interception.  Oakland blew the Eagles out and I had gotten used to the team for which I was rooting winning the SB.

Top games through SB 15

1. Plunkett  15 
2. Lambert 14
3. Bradshaw 13
4. Csonka 8
5. McGee 1




SB 16 Ray Wersching (Joe Montana)
My Niners win their first SB and I'm saying its the kicker who should have been MVP?

Yeah, it's tough.  Joe was good - it was the worst of his 4 SB games, but still the 28th best in SB history, and I don't hate the pick - there just aren't any other offensive players with noteworthy games (maybe Cross and Fahnhorst).  Defensively, the key possession was the goal line stand - Dan Bunz made two plays in that sequence, but it was essentially all he played during the game.  Were I to pick a defensive player of the game, it would be Jack Reynolds, 7 tackles a sack and made a play in that goal line stand.  I don't really quibble with either Joe or Hacksaw.  But Wersching made 4 FG and his squib kicks gave the Niners a field position advantage the Bengals had to fight uphill all day long to overcome.  I've thought about this for years, honestly, considering alternate ways to look at the Niners SB wins.  Gun to my head - it's Wersching.  Fortunately, there's not a gun to my head.  That would be a bad evening.  I watched this game with my mom as well, we moved, weirdly considering the opponent, from San Francisco to Ohio in between SB XV and XVI - do you remember where you were when Dwight caught the ball to beat the Cowboys?  I was with my parents listening to the game on the radio - as our power literally went out during the drive.  It's in my top 5 all time sports memories.

SB 17 John Riggins (John Riggins)
38 carries, 166 yards and a touchdown.  That's it.  That's all there is.  It doesn't really appear a smash mouth game decided by the OL - the defense actually might have been the stronger unit.  But the strongest individual performance - I'm gonna say the writers got it right.  This was memorable to me as the first game I lost; I didn't like this Redskin team, they were my new Cowboys, I was against them and in a loud way.  I may have dropped some of my 7th grade cash monies in this one.  I don't know if the start time was later, but this feels like a night game to me, in the way that our win the year before, even though I watched it on the east coast as well, still felt like the afternoon games that I watched back in California.  I recall specifically watching this game with both my parents.

SB 18 Marcus Allen (Marcus Allen)
If it were any other performance but this one, you'd go defense - Haynes/Hayes dominating from the secondary, Reggie Kinlaw pushing through the Hogs OL.  But Marcus Allen rushed for nearly 200 yards at almost 10 yds/carry and had the greatest single run in SB history.  That he's my favorite non-Niner ever plays no role in my saying that to that date, his was the greatest SB in history.  A fun game, the first one I recall watched with the five of us - my parents and my younger brothers as well.  I think I owned a Raider sweatshirt back in '84.

SB 19 Joe Montana (Joe Montana)
The first 18 win team in NFL history, still my favorite ever SB.  Dan Marino had one of the great all time seasons, but his SB performance is 58th; so it's reasonable to look at the Niner defense - and what you'd see there is a terrific game by both Dwaine Board (two sacks) and Big Hands Johnson (one).  But the offensive performance from Roger Craig, 135 total yards and a record 3 TDs jumps pretty far ahead of the pack (probably you can youtube OJ Simpson from the pregame picking a big SB from Craig.  But holy cats - it's the fourth best SB game by a QB, not only 3 TDs passing but another one rushing and nearly 60 yards on the ground for Joe.  Like most 80s Niner games, this was a full household experience; I have very few memories, through the first 40 years of my life, as happy as watching a big Niner game with my family.

SB 20 Richard Dent (Richard Dent)
Someone from that defense had to get picked - Dent forced two fumbles and had a sack and a half; I think I was the only one in the family still with the game by the fourth quarter.

Here's the top 5 through the first two decades of SB.

1. Montana - 19
2. Allen - 18
3. Plunkett - 15
4. Lambert -14
5. Bradshaw - 13


SB 21 Phil Simms (Phil Simms)
22 of 25 is sort of a conversation ender.  It's the 3rd best QB performance in SB history, making it the best SB game for anyone to that date.  Carl Banks had a good game too.  I watched it by myself in Washington DC, part of a junior class trip.  I joined things in high school.  I'm not entirely sure why.

SB 22 Timmy Smith (Doug Williams)
The Redskins might still be scoring in that second quarter.  Doug Williams was the big story of the game, and he performed, still the 9th best game by a SB quarterback.  Ricky Sanders had the best game for a WR in SB history to that date - 9 balls for 193 yards and two scores, and he'd be an equally good choice.  I'm taking Smith; 22 carries, 204 yards and 2 scores - the best game by a RB, still, in SB history.  It was a tour de force by the Skins (I rooted for the Broncos in 21, in a NYG protest vote given how thoroughly they hammered my Niners in the NFC title game, but here my Broncos dislike overcame my Redskins dislike.  These were hard back to back SBs with which to be engaged if you were me.  This was the first SB where my parents flipped the front room and living room in our Prospect, Ohio home.  I liked the other configuration better, but this provided more room.

SB 23 Jerry Rice (Jerry Rice)
I was a freshman in college now, blowing off striking a set from a just concluded play to drive back home.  I had to ask permission - but I wasn't so much asking; the chances that I wasn't going to spend the day back home readying for a Niner SB were nonexistent.  The one moment, really in my life, most memorable with all five of us was the moment when John Taylor caught the touchdown pass - we all leapt from our respective seats simultaneously.  4 options for MVP here; it was largely our defense that carried the bulk of the game - you'd look at Ronnie Lott with his memorable hit on Ickey Woods and leading a secondary that limited a historically underrated Esiason to the 77th best QB game in SB history.  You'd look at Charles Haley, a terror from the edge with 2 sacks and 7 unassisted tackles.  You'd look at Joe - this the 7th best QB game in SB history, and then settle on Jerry - 11 balls for 215 and a score and more than anyone responsible for our winning the game.  If someone can dominate a football game from the WR position - it was Rice in SB23.

SB 24 Joe Montana (Joe Montana)
Here were the scores of the Niners playoff games leading up to SB 24.

Niners 44 Vikings13
Niners 30 Rams 3

And then the SB was 55-10.  Its the most dominant postseason in NFL history.

This is the best QB game in SB history, by a margin of nothing over a different Niner QB five years subsequent. The competition is Jerry - 7 balls for 148 and 3 scores.  Like the writers, we give it to Rice in 23 and Montana in 24.  I was 19; again, I came back home - it's the last SB I'd watch with anyone for several years.  It's the capper, really, of this Niner team's dominance - the '94 team was tremendous, but it was less a continuation than a largely changed group.  This was a ridiculously fun game.

SB 25 Thurman Thomas (Ottis Anderson)
It's hard to pick a losing team's player for MVP of a single game; it really has to be a significant disparity.

Here's Anderson's numbers: 21 carries, 102 yards, 1 score, 1 catch, 7 yards.  A good game.

Here's Thomas: 15 carries, 135 yards, a score, 5 catches, 55 yards.  Thomas was better; Hostetler was good too, the 34th best QB game in SB history - but my vote, without hesitation, goes to Thomas.  I had my first apartment now, as a 20 year old college junior - I watched the game on my couch, disinterested in the game, given the crushing way in which we lost the NFC Title game (and Joe's Niner career effectively ended) and the hysterical cheerleading of the broadcast for a war I thought was a bad idea.  Clearly, I was wrong, as there's certainly been no blowback on us over the past two decades.

25 down.  I'll make this a top 10.

1. Montana 24
2. Simms 21
3. Rice 23
4. Rice 24
5. Smith 22
6. Montana 19
7. Allen 18
8. Plunkett 15
9. Sanders 22
10. Montana 23


SB 26 Jim Lachey (Mark Rypien)
Rypien had a terrific year for the best Redskins team of the SB era, and his game here, the 35th best of all time, is fine - but not really comparable given the context of the era.  Both Clark and Monk had over a hundred yards receiving and Wilbur Marshall had 11 tackles and a sack.  But I'm going to this version of the Hogs, specifically Jim Lachey who completely took Bruce Smith, one of the great players of all time, out of the game.  I have very little memory of this game; I was now a college senior, I watched it at my then girlfriend's apartment in a largely halfhearted "why am I stuck rooting for the Bills again" way.

SB 27 Troy Aikman (Troy Aikman)
Aikman, like Bradshaw, is a little historically overrated based on the success of his team, which really outstripped his statistical contribution.  But not in this one.  His is still the 6th best QB game in a SB.  The Cowboy defense, particularly the line and Ken Norton, was also dominant, the godawful Bills turned the ball over 9 times (I was still stuck rooting for them, couldn't they have played a team I didn't hate in this run?) but this is the best game of Aikman's life and not a close call.  I'm now in my first year of law school, although still in the same town as where I went to college, in one of the three worst decisions I've ever made.  No, I'm not going to do that list today, I'm watching the game in my new apartment.  It was a hole.  '93 would not be a great year.

SB 28 James Washington (Emmitt Smith)
James Washington had eleven tackles and a pick and a forced fumble and a returned fumble for a score to tie a game that had largely been controlled by the Bills.  Emmitt was who he was, a ball control machine, pounding away at the Bills in the second half, finishing the game with 132 yards and two scores.  He was Emmitt; I dig -
and he owned the second half - but there is just no way to overlook Washington's game.  I was about to get dumped - but didn't know it yet and my disappointment was largely contained this day to having to root for Buffalo on their way to another certain defeat.

SB 29 Steve Young (Steve Young)
My law school clerkship had just ended, and after a year and a half I felt confident I did not want to practice law.  That would not stop me from practicing law, but a combination of protracted post-breakup depression, an increasing inability to deal with people on almost a holistic level, and my getting rejected from every decent legal job on both sides of the Mississippi did not bode well for my career success.  Who was successful were my Niners - this was the 8th best regular season team in Niner history; the year before the 10th best; the year before that the 3rd best - a better regular season Niner team than every SB winner save for '84.  But despite the run of these Steve Young Niners we had fallen short of the Cowboys.  Until here - we got over the hump in the NFC Title game and I flew to Florida to see my family to watch SB 29 (and attend the fan festival, during which I won a trivia contest and got to broadcast a clip of Dwight's catch with my brother Joe).

I won a healthy amount of money having given all 18 1/2 and then had to sweat the possibility of a Charger backdoor cover.  It was a laugher; Young's game is the second best by a QB in SB history (and, given he added 49 yards rushing to 6 TDs in the air, I would never criticize anyone who wanted him to be first) and Jerry added a 10 catch 149 yard 3 score game to his resume.

SB 30 Troy Aikman (Larry Brown) 
I know, right?  I'm taking an award away from a defensive player and giving it to a largely overrated QB.  Madness.

But Aikman's game was good - the 22nd best ever - and Brown's picks were right place/right time, and in one instance, caused due to his getting beaten on a play.  There aren't any skill positions that stand out, and Emmitt had a particularly subpar game - the inability to run the ball takes the OL out of play - and looking at defense you don't really see a special performance.  This is another one I could be talked out of (Larry Allen?  Deion?  Chad Hennings?) but right now it's a typical sportswriter I can't find anyone else to pick selection.  I made some money on this one too - taking two touchdowns and the Steelers while still picking Dallas to win outright.  Nothing I enjoy more than winning on both sides.  I passed the California Bar in the summer of '95 and was toiling away.  The less said about the rest of the 90s, the better.  Not my best decade.  I liked me some Pearl Jam, however.

1. Montana 24
2. Young 29
3. Simms 21
4. Rice 23
5. Rice 24
6. Rice 29
7. Smith 22

8. Montana 19
9. Allen 18

10. Plunkett 15

SB 31 - Reggie White (Desmond Howard)

254 return yards and a score - if you don't give it to Desmond Howard in SB 31, you're never going to give it to someone for kick returns.  And I'm probably not - Reggie White had 3 sacks and 4 pressures, this may have been the best defensive performance in  SB history.  He wins.  I don't hate you if you pick the Heisman winner, but I'm going with one of the top ten players in league history.  

SB 32 - Terrell Davis (Terrell Davis)

I'm in Florida now, teaching high school history - so I was able to, once again, watch the SB with my parents.    I didn't like Brett Favre in a pretty serious way, so I was with the Patriots in 31, and swallowed hard here to root for Denver in 32.  There's no other candidate but Davis - 30 carries, 157 yards, 3 scores - it stands just behind Smith's game as the best performance by a RB in SB history.  

SB 33 Rod Smith (John Elway)

It's the 23rd best QB'd game in SB history, so Elway was a defensible choice, Darrien Gordon had two picks, and he's in the conversation - but my vote is for Smith's 5 catches for 152 yards and a score.  I was heavily on the Falcons side, as for the first time I entered Niner legacy protection mode and didn't want to see a second title for Elway.  I took the Falcons plus the touchdown.  That did not work out.  My dad was irritated with my rooting for the Falcons, as they had bounced us from the playoffs; he was unreceptive to my Montana > Elway needs.

SB 34 Mike Jones (Kurt Warner)

I like Kurt Warner even less than Brett Favre, but this is a perfectly fine pick - he threw for over 4 bills and I have his as the tenth best QBd game in SB history.  Bruce and Holt both had 100+ yards yards receiving - this was the greatest show on turf playing their game. But Mike Jones made the greatest defensive play in SB history - an open field goal line tackle at the gun to win the SB.  He also had 8 other tackles in the game.  You  can pick Warner and feel fine about it - without hesitation, I'm going Jones.

SB 35 Ray Lewis (Ray Lewis)
Like Joe Greene in IX, there's not a metric specifically pointing to Lewis - but like IX this was a game won by the defense; NY getting across midfield a total of twice.  Michael McCrary had three sacks, Rod Woodson, one of the great players of all time, led a solid secondary - the pick of Lewis, who did bat down 4 balls, is reflective, like Greene in IX, largely of a sense that his play was the key to the structure of the defense.  I could be persuaded to flip to McCrary.  I watched both of those games with my parents.  It was hard to muster much passion, I rooted for Tennessee out of a Rams dislike and was with the Ravens here.  Probably, my investment on the SB increased during these years out of an otherwise disinterest in the game.  This is a mistake.


The new top 10 is the same as the old top 10.  But I'm sliding Reggie White into the 10th spot.  When we get to 40, I'll make it a top 20.

SB 36 Ty Law (Tom Brady)

This was a bad pick, a "aw, let's go ahead and pick the QB" pick - Brady's game is in the bottom half of all SB QB performances, 45th of all time, and NE's offense was whipped all day; if you need to pick an offensive player - it's Vinatieri for a 48 year yard GW FG at the gun.  I want to go defense, the Rams were a lights out, all time offense and couldn't score - Willie McGinest gets pass rush points; I'll take Law for his pick  run back for a score and 8 tackles.  I could be persuaded that a different defensive player, like Ray Lewis the year before, was the real key.  I lost heavy on this game, both side and giving the two touchdowns.  I had just bought my house before this SB, but wasn't set up enough yet to watch the game, so once again it was with my parents.

SB 37 Simeon Rice (Dexter Jackson)
And then I lost even more on this game.  My life had turned over again by SB37, I left the high school job I had since SB32 and was now getting a masters in history and teaching undergrads.  Here, I hosted my parents for the SB; we were all in with the Raiders, both because it was a Bay Area team back in the SB and to see Jerry Rice in what would pretty clearly be his last time on the big stage (5 catches, 77 yards, score).  I got this game wrong too, the Bucs defense ran this game - taking back 3 Gannon picks for scores.  Dwight Smith got two of them - and two int's taken back for scores is hard to pass up - Rice, with two sacks and Brooks, with a pick returned for a score had big games, a "Simeon Rice dominated like Richard Dent" argument is a fair one.  The play of the DBs was really set up by the front 7, and Smith's second score was in garbage time.

SB 38 Deion Branch (Tom Brady)
Brady's game was good, I have it 18th all time for SB QB - but you can't make him MVP when Delhomme was better, the 11th best all time.  Mike Vrabel had a good game with two sacks - but Dan Morgan had 18 tackles for the Panthers.  This was a shootout game anyway, and the best player on the field was Deion Branch with 10 balls, 143 yards and a score (although Muhsin Muhammad had 4 balls for 140 and a score).  Were the Panthers to have won, it would have been Delhomme, and I'd be receptive to that choice, but I'll go Branch.

SB 39 Ted Bruschi (Deion Branch)
Brady was better in 39, the 15th best QB game in SB history, and, in what sort of looks like a makeup call, he lost out to the guy who should have won the year before, Branch.  I'd solidly go Brady were I picking an offensive player - but Bruschi and Rodney Harrison each had 7 tackles, a sack, and a pick - Harrison's ended the game, but the Eagles passed the ball pretty easily, but didn't run effectively - and Bruschi's pick might have been the pivotal play in the game.  I rooted against the Patriots in both of these two SBs, and watched each game alone; my workload was heavy, I drove through my MA in a year and a half, taking full courseloads without break, and here I had just started my first term as a full time college instructor, and while my actual workload was then just a fraction of what it is now (I'm still at the same shop 7 years later) everything was brand new, requiring heavy preparation.  I think I was working through both games, hence my not seeing the parents.

SB 40 Ike Taylor (Hines Ward)
Ward wasn't great, dropping a TD pass - Big Ben was worse, just abysmal in his first SB, the 80th best QB performance in the game's history.  With no one really jumping out I'll go with the most important play of the game - Ike Taylor's near goal line interception that snuffed what looked like a Seattle comeback win (he also had 7 tackles).  It was not a well played nor officiated game.  My parents moved in the year between 39 and 40 and would move again just a couple of years later - but I was now able to go back to their house in 40 and have remained doing so since.  My dad has passed away since SB 44; the one thing I've most learned over the past year is you don't want to win a World Series in the year your father dies, it just reminds you of the empty space.

There wasn't a game in that stretch of 5 that makes the top 10, so it stays the same.

1. Montana 24

2. Young 29

3. Simms 21

4. Rice 23

5. Rice 24

6. Rice 29

7. Smith 22

8. Montana 19
9. Allen 18

10. White 31


And now we add the second 10, for a full top 20.


11. Plunkett 15
12. Davis 32
13. Aikman 27
14. Sanders 22

15. Montana 23

16. Lambert 14

17. Bradshaw 13

18. Williams 22

19. Dent 20
20. Csonka 8

  
SB 41 Dominic Rhodes (Peyton Manning)
Manning may retire as the greatest QB in history, but he has struggled in the SB, more broadly in the postseason, and specifically in this game, where his was the 46th best SB ever making this a poor pick. The Bears missed 15 tackles; Kevin Hayden made a game altering pick/touchdown that might make him a good choice - I'll take Dom Rhodes, 21 carries/113 yards, a score with virtually all of those yards coming after contact.  His was the best game in an undistinguished field.

SB 42 Justin Tuck (Eli Manning)

The other Manning rolled out the 42nd best QB game in SB history and was similarly a poor pick.  NE had one of the great offenses of all time, carrying the team to their undefeated record - and they were largely controlled by the NY front line.  I'll take Tuck with two sacks and a forced fumble.

SB 43 James Harrison (Santonio Holmes)
Holmes was good - Larry Fitzgerald was better; Darnell Dockett dominated the first half, he hit the Steelers for 3 sacks - but the game was totally turned around at the end of the first half with Harrison's 100 yard interception returned for a TD - like Mike Jones, sometimes one pivotal play overwhelms the entire game, and in 43 it was Harrison's.

SB 44 Drew Brees (Drew Brees)
The first correct MVP call since Lewis in 35; Brees had the 12th best QB game in SB history.  Tracy Porter's pick ended the game; were Brees to have been only average, he'd be the side.

SB 45 Aaron Rodgers (Aaron Rodgers)
Big defensive plays by Collins and Matthews, a lot of receiving yards for Nelson - but pretty conclusively it's Rodgers for 45.  I've got Rodgers just ahead of last year's MVP, Brees, as the new 12th best QB performance in SB history.

SB 46 Eli Manning (Eli Manning)
Good games at WR for both Nicks and Manningham; NY had the ball 15 minutes more than the Patriots without turning it over.  I've got Manning's game as the 18th best QB game in SB history, the best of any of the Manning SB games.

SB 47 Joe Flacco (Joe Flacco)
It’s a top 10 QB game for Flacco, 3 scores and no picks. Jones had the two touchdowns and the interior of the Ravens line really controlled the Niners more than one would have anticipated – but it’s solidly Flacco, you go over a QB rating of 120 in the SB and you’re the MVP.  I’ m married now, this the first Super Bowl I watched as the (admittedly) somewhat lesser half of my family unit and it marked the return of my Niners to the game after almost a 20 year absence.  I took to my office to watch the second half alone; my level of anxiety over a sporting event does not need to be witnessed by the person who let me see her naked.

SB 48 Malcolm Smith (Malcolm Smith)
Similar to Bears/Ravens/Bucs this is a dominant defensive performance by an entire team, a Sherman pick would be defensible given his taking away half of the field from Peyton Manning.  I'll sign off on Smith, 10 tackles, a fumble recovery and a pick 6.  

SB 49 Malcolm Butler (Tom Brady)
Brady's a fair choice, I've got his game as the 13th best; but Butler's pick looks to be the biggest single play in SB history in terms of swinging win probability (and he had a good game otherwise).  I took away Brady's other two MVPs also, so that's a tough trend to continue, but you can't overlook that Butler won the game.

SB 50 Von Miller (Von Miller)
Miller had a dominant game, 2.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles.  The only competition was Kony Ealy on the losing side, 3 sacks, a forced fumble and a pick.  An easy choice.

SB 51 Tom Brady (Tom Brady)
Losing QB Matt Ryan had a better game; James White had 14 catches - but Brady's leading the Patriots to easily the greatest comeback in SB history rightly wins him the MVP.

SB 52 Nick Foles (Nick Foles)
I've only switched one MVP since SB 43, so either they've gotten better at this or I've given up; if you didn't pick Foles you'd pick Brandon Graham for his strip sack of Brady and overall play -but in a game with more yards than any game in NFL history you don't go defense.

SB 53 Stephon Gilmore (Julian Edelman)
Edelman was the best offensive player in the game, caught 10 balls for over 140 yards - but the Rams came in with a high octane offense and got throttled; Gilmore's Ray Lewis - best player on a defense that played a remarkable game.  5 tackles, forced a fumble - his pick was the key play of the game. Gilmore was first team All-Pro, the only Patriot to be named - and he deserved it, he was maybe the best corner in all of football - and New England completely shut down a tremendous Rams passing attack.  The MVP was Gilmore, it's not a close call.

SB 54 Damien Williams (Patrick Mahomes)
Expected points aside; if you're giving QB who throw 2 picks the MVP then there's really never an occasion not to give the winning QB the MVP and then what's the point? Pedestrian game for Mahomes - both Watkins and Hill had big games with big 4th quarter catches, but Williams rushed for a hundred and scored twice and he gets the nod.

Super Bowl 45 Prediction

I picked the game early, in my Sunday post, which you can read here. My thoughts are unchanged.

I'm 8-2 ATS in the playoffs, 7-3 straight up.  My predictions prior to the start of the playoffs were Patriots/Packers; my pre-season prediction was Colts/Packers.  Last year, I took the Saints plus the number, but the Colts to win the game. 

I've been doing some Super Bowl lists this week, to which you can get here. One more list, where I re-award each SB MVP Award is tomorrow, assuming I actually write it.

Here's the pick. 

Steelers +3. Packers straight up.

I'm for the Packers, they're a non-profit, publicly owned team - let's say you're one of my lefty/pop-culture/let's talk about Toddlers & Tiaras readers - you have no interest in football, but it's the Super Bowl and, like a Papal selection, you have to pick a side. Your favorite team is the Packers; they're the least evil empirish team in the NFL. You can root for them with less chance of finding out they donated your merchandise money to some candidate trying to take away Medicare than any other team in the league.

Now, I'm for the Packers because I'm in the Niner legacy protection business, so my postseason choices for the past decade have largely been limited to which team I need to lose the least. Here, I need the Steelers to lose- their aggregate total is now past our 5 SB Titles, and this would be a third for Roethlisberger, putting him uncomfortably close to St. Joe.

And they might win - this is a really tight Super Bowl, by all of the advanced metrics. Here's an example - pythagorean win/loss, which I'm using for a boatload of list, is the record you'd expect a team to have based on its points scored/points allowed, compared to the rest of the league. It's crude, but useful, and I've spent lots of time with it in recent months.

Green Bay and Pittsburgh, by pythagorean record, both went 12.1-3.9 this season.

In SB history - here's the list of opponents who had the same pythag going into their matchup:

SB17 -That was the first Skins win, when they beat Miami. That was the short season, barely more than half a regular season played, so much easier to have a dead heat.

SB22 - This was the second Skins win, when they beat Denver. This was the replacement player season, so the regular season records of these teams was the least reflective of any in SB history.

That's it. That's the list.

I'm willing to say, flatly, this is the tightest matchup in SB history.

That doesn't mean it's a close game. The Redskins won both SB17 and 22 going away.

But it means you shouldn't be surprised by a win from either team.

You have to take the points; the only reason the Packers are favored is they're an even more public team than the Steelers, why you're getting those 3 points is that's what gets equal action by the public.  It's a gift. The only good way to read this game, other than absolute guesswork, is that it's even; a combination of Steeler injuries and my desire to root against Pittsburgh leads me to the gun to my head Packer win, but there's just no way you should be giving points (and 3 is a decent amount; it allows you to buy a half point, which, if you're playing the Steelers, I would strongly encourage as the number I generally like to take is 3 1/2) in a game this tightly matched.

So, that's the pick.  Steelers plus the number.  Packers to win.

(If you've got to play the total, go under the 45, again, you're playing the public - and there's no game the public wants to see points in more than the SB.  It isn't a great play, but if you were playing, it's under.  Play under 44.5 for game's longest TD for the same reason. There's never been an ovetime game in the SB, so even though it's a really expensive play, it's probably free money.  Consider under 75.5 rushing yards for Mendenhall, under 39.5 receiving yards for Ward, over 38.5 receiving yards for Miller, under 49.5 rushing yards for Starks)

Every Super Bowl Winner Ranked by Pythagorean Record+Strength of Schedule

This is the pro football reference number combining pythag+strength of schedule.  It's regular season only.  Every SB winner ranked.  Through 53.

1. 1991 Redskins 16.6 Rypien, Byner, Monk, Clark, Marshall, Green, Mann, Collins (d. Bills 3.6)

2. 1985 Bears 15.9 McMahon, Payton, Marshall, Dent, McMichael, Perry, Wilson, Hampton, Fencik, (d. Patriots 5.8).

3. 1996 Packers 15.3  Favre, Levens, Freeman, Chmura, Howard, Butler, White, Robinson, Brown (d. Patriots 5.1).

4. 1975 Steelers 14.2  Bradshaw, Harris, Swann, Blount, Ham, Lambert, Shell, (d. Cowboys 4.1).

5. 1966 Packers 13.5  Starr, Taylor, Hornung, Fleming, Adderly, Wood, Nitschke, Davis, Pitts (d. Chiefs 11)

6. 1973 Dolphins 13.4 Griese, Csonka, Morris, Warfield, Anderson, Buoniconti, Scott, Garo (d. Vikings 8.6).

7. 2013 Seahawks 13 Wilson, Lynch, Sherman, Chancellor, Thomas, Wagner, Bennett, Avril (d. Broncos 11.4)

8. 2004 Patriots 12.8 Brady, Dillon, Branch, Vrabel, Vinatieri, Harrison, Bruschi, Mcginest, Seymour (d. Eagles 5.6)

9. 1984 49ers 12.7 Montana, Tyler, Craig, Solomon, Clark, Lott, Board, Hicks, Turner, Carter, Wright (d. Dolphins 10.6)

10. 1969 Chiefs 11.9  Dawson/Livingston, Garrett, Taylor, Stenerud, Bell, Lanier, Thomas (d. Vikes 17.6)

11. 1999 Rams 11.9 Warner, Faulk, Bruce, Holt, Pace, Fletcher, Carr, Carter, (d. Titans 1).

12. 1979 Steelers 11.9 Bradshaw, Harris, Swann, Stallworth, Blount, Ham, Lambert, Greene, Webster (d. Rams -.6)

13. 1994 49ers 11.6 Young, Watters, Rice, Taylor, Jones, Norton, Hanks, Sanders, BY, McDonald, (d. Chargers 3.6)

14. 1972 Dolphins 11 Morrall/Griese, Csonka, Morris, Warfield, Scott, Anderson, Buoniconti (d. Redskins 6.3)

15. 2010 Packers 10.9 Rodgers, Jennings, Driver, Hawk, Woodson, Matthews, Collins, Raji (d. Steelers 10.2)

16. 2014 Patriots 10.9 Brady, Gronkowski, Revis.(d. Seahawks 9.5) 

17. 2009 Saints 10.8 Brees, Colston, Vilma, Sharper, Grant, Smith (d. Colts 5.9)

18. 1989 49ers 10.7 Montana, Craig, Rathman, Rice, Taylor, Jones, Haley, Griffin, Lott, Turner, Fagan (d. Broncos 9.3).

19. 1997 Broncos 10.7 Elway, Davis, Smith, Sharpe, Nalen, Atwater, Romanowski, NSmith, (d. Packers 7.7)

20. 1971 Cowboys 9.9 Staubach, Thomas, Alworth, Hayes, Adderly, Harris, Howley, Lilly (d. Dolphins 7.7).

21. 1992 Cowboys 9.9 Aikman, Smith, Irvin, Novacek, Norton, Brown, Allen, Haley, Maryland, (d. Bills 4.3)

22. 2008 Steelers 9.8 Roethlisberger, Parker, Holmes, Ward, Farrior, Harrison, Polamalu, Woodley (d. Cardinals  -1.9)

23. 1995 Cowboys 9.7 Aikman, Smith, Irvin, Novacek, Sanders, Woodson, Haley, Lett, Allen, (d. Steelers 4.6)

24. 1993 Cowboys 9.6 Aikman, Smith, Irvin, Novacek, Allen, Norton, Woodson, Haley, Maryland (d. Bills 4.8)

25. 2017 Eagles 9.41 Foles, Blount, Jeffery, Kelce, Ertz, Graham, Cox, Jenkins (d.Patriots 8.89)

26. 1967 Packers 9.4 Starr, Anderson, Dowler, Fleming, Wood, Adderly, Gregg, Nitschke (d. Raiders 15.3)

27. 2016 Patriots 9.3 Brady, Lewis, Edelman, Hightower, Butler, Chung, Branch (d. Falcons 8.5)

28. 1986 Giants 9 Simms, Morris, Bavaro, Carson, Banks, Marshall, Taylor, Burt, Oates, Reasons (d. Broncos 5.2)

29. 1998 Broncos 8.9 Elway, Davis, Smith, Sharpe, Atwater, Romanowski, McCaffrey (d. Falcons 10)

30. 2002 Bucs 8.8 Johnson, Alstott, Johnson, McCardell, Brooks, Barber, Kelly, Rice, Sapp, Lynch (d. Raiders 10.6).

31. 1976 Raiders 8.5 Stabler, Van Eeghen, Casper, Biletnikoff, Branch, Guy, Upshaw, Hendricks (d. Vikings 9.3)

32. 1978 Steelers 8.2 Bradshaw, Harris, Swann, Stallworth, Blount, Greene, Ham, Lambert, (d. Cowboys 11).

33. 2000 Ravens 8 Banks/Dilfer, Lewis, Ogden, Sharpe, RLewis, Woodson, Sharper, McAlister, (d. NYG 2.4)

34. 1968 Jets 7.9 Namath, Snell, Boozer, Sauer, Maynard, Sample (d. Colts 17.9)

35. 1977 Cowboys 7.8 Staubach, Dorsett, Pearson, Harris, White, Jones, Martin, Waters (d. Broncos 11.3)

36. 2005 Steelers 7.8 Roethlisberger, Parker, Ward, Farrior, Polamalu, Porter, Hampton, Smith (d. Seahawks 9.1).

37. 1990 Giants 7.7 Simms/Hostetler, Anderson, Ingram, Bavaro, Johnson, Banks, Taylor, Oates, Meggett (d. Bills 8.6)

38. 1982 Redskins 7.4 Theismann, Riggins, Monk, Brown, Moseley, Manley, Grimm, Jacoby (d. Dolphins 8.5)

39. 2003 Patriots 6.9 Brady, Branch, Brown, Vinatieri, Harrison, Bruschi, Law, Seymour, Mcginest (d. Panthers -.9)

40. 1983 Raiders 6.8 Plunkett, Allen, Branch, Christensen, Millen, Long, Martin, Hayes, Haynes, (d. Redskins 13.9)

41. 1974 Steelers 6.8  Gilliam/Bradshaw, Harris, Swann, Blount, Greene, Ham, Lambert, (d. Vikings 6.1)

42. 1981 49ers 6.2 Montana, Solomon, Clark, Hicks, Lott, Reynolds, Dean, Turner, Wright, Cross (d. Bengals 5.5)

43. 2006 Colts 5.9 Manning, Addai, Harrison, Wayne, Freeney, (d. Bears 7.6)

44. 2015 Broncos (5.8) Manning, Sanders, Thomas, Mathis, Miller, Ware, Harris, Talib (d.Panthers 8.1)

45. 2018 Patriots (5.18) Brady, Edelman, Gronkowski, Hightower, Gilmore (d.Rams 8.49)

46. 1988 49ers 4.8 Montana, Craig, Rice, McIntyre, Lott, Haley, Romanowski, McKyer, Griffin (d. Bengals 6.1)

47. 2001 Patriots 4.3 Brady, Smith, Brown, Milloy, Law, Vrabel, Seymour, McGinest, Woody (d. Rams 13.4)

48. 1980 Raiders 4.2 Plunkett, Van Eeghen, Branch, Upshaw, Shell, Hayes, Guy, Hendricks, Millen, (d. Eagles 9.7)

49. 1987 Redskins 3.9 Schroeder/Williams, Monk, Clark, Green, Mann, Manley, Coleman (d. Broncos 3.9)

50. 2007 Giants 3.3 Manning, Jacobs, Burress, Toomer, Pierce, Madison, Strahan, Umenyiora, (d. Patriots 20.1)

51. 2012 Ravens 2.9 Flacco, Rice, JJones, Suggs, Ngata, Reed, Lewis (d. Niners 10.2)

52. 2011 Giants 1.6 Manning, Bradshaw, Cruz, Nicks, Manningham, JPP, Tuck, Umenyiora, (d. Patriots 9.3)

53. 1970 Colts .4 Unitas/Morrall, Mackey, Curtis, Hendricks, (d. Cowboys 7)

The Weekly Tendown January 23 --29 2011

Dear Internet:

Tired this week.  8 courses and 200+ students has broken my will.  Here's what's doin' for Tendown 62.

1. My Super Bowl Pick

I've got football posts coming this week; Tuesday is a new ranking of every SB winner, by regular season pythagorean record.  Wednesday is a rank of the ten greatest matchups in SB history. Thursday the "Real Super Bowl MVP, where we look beyond simply the winning QB from each team and name, once and for all, who should have received the MVP Trophy in each of the 44 Super Bowls, and then Friday my pick post, where I'll officially pick both against the spread and the straight up winner of SB45.

(Also, an 11 page post in my other blog will hit on Tuesday.  And last week I posted my Royal Rumble preview and my Athlete of the Month for January.  For those of you not wrestling inclined, the Royal Rumble post also included my look at the most successful Real World alums from each of its 24 seasons and a joke with the punchline "Pedophile Harriet Tubman".  So there's a little bit for everyone.)

But - because, you (yes, you!) my loyal Tendown reader is the sweetest smelling of all my readers, I am releasing the SB pick to you right now.  Right now!  Right now! (with the caveat that it might change before Friday.)

Here it is:

Steelers +3.  Packers straight up.

I'm for the Packers, they're a non-profit, publicly owned team - let's say you're one of my lefty/pop-culture/let's talk about Toddlers & Tiaras readers - you have no interest in football, but it's the Super Bowl and, like a Papal selection, you have to pick a side.  Your favorite team is the Packers; they're the least evil empirish team in the NFL.  You can root for them with less chance of finding out they donated your merchandise money to some candidate trying to take away Medicare than any other team in the league.

Now, I'm for the Packers because I'm in the Niner legacy protection business, so my postseason choices for the past decade have largely been limited to which team I need to lose the least.  Here, I need the Steelers to lose- their aggregate total is now past our 5 SB Titles, and this would be a third for Roethlisberger, putting him uncomfortably close to St. Joe.

And they might win - this is a really tight Super Bowl, by all of the advanced metrics.  Here's an example - pythagorean win/loss, which I'll be using for a boatload of lists coming up, is the record you'd expect a team to have based on its points scored/points allowed, compared to the rest of the league.  It's crude, but useful, and I've spent lots of time with it in recent months.

Green Bay and Pittsburgh, by pythagorean record, both went 12.1-3.9 this season.

In SB history - here's the list of opponents who had the same pythag going into their matchup:

SB17 -That was the first Skins win, when they beat Miami.  That was the short season, barely more than half a regular season played, so much easier to have a dead heat.

SB22 - This was the second Skins win, when they beat Denver.  This was the replacement player season, so the regular season records of these teams was the least reflective of any in SB history.

That's it.  That's the list.

I'm willing to say, flatly, this is the tightest matchup in SB history.

That doesn't mean it's a close game.  The Redskins won both SB17 and 22 going away.

But it means you shouldn't be surprised by a win from either team.

I'm completely on the fence about the outright game winner.  But I'm not on the fence about the line - just today, the 2.5 number went up to 3, and that's a good price when you're looking at a game this even, like getting a weighted coin on a flip.

It doesn't mean you should invest - you should almost never invest in a single game - but you are getting these 3 points for free given the Packers status as the public's favorite team.  I don't see it going to 3.5, so if you're playing - play today.

I may flip my overall winner by Friday, that's how close it is.  But I am locking in my number against the spread.

Steelers +3.

2. Whip Inflation Now
Obama's State of the Union sucked.

You want to compete with the rest of the world?  In the way we beat the Russians to the moon?

Raise taxes on the wealthy.  We built NASA on 90% top marginal tax rates.  In 2011, we can't afford a police force in Camden, New Jersey.  Support unions.  Penalize business which outsources to avoid paying union wages.  Raise the ceiling on the social security tax to a quarter million in income.  Stop giving away public school money and blaming teachers for poor student performance.  Declare a war on stupid as aggressive as the war on terror. 

The State of the Union reminded me of a meeting we've probably all sat through at work, where the company's troubles are laid at the feet of the workers.  How about working a little harder?  We need everyone to buckle down.

When the company is successful, the executives take tremendous bonuses.  And when the company isn't successful - the blame lands squarely on your shoulders.  Heck, for most of us - we get hit coming and going.

Theoretically, one could be a faculty member of a school whose population exploded over the past few years, as people went back to school when they lost their jobs.  What would that mean for the faculty member?  More courses, course sizes doubling - tripling.  More students who were less academically inclined than might they otherwise be and taking refuge in a student loan.

What that wouldn't mean is a raise.  Despite the exponentially increased workload.  In fact, what it would mean is having your between academic quarter breaks cut in half without compensation, meaning that, given preparation needs, you've worked maybe 350 days a year the past two years.  More courses, in more subjects, to more students, without a break. 

And when that ends - when the student population returns to previous levels, what that will mean is faculty layoffs, is blame placed on faculty for any student who leaves the institution without graduating, is increased talk about tough times and belt tightening.

Congratulations America.  If you didn't get rich in the boom years, and you didn't, given how concentrated was wealth in the hands of the few - and you've spent the past couple of years losing everything you did have - and now are told by the President you voted for that it's your responsibility to be more competitive - congratulations, you now work with me.  I'll show you how to work the copy machines.

It's on Obama's head now.  It's not just Reagan/Clinton/Bush.  It's the last 9 months.

we are in the midst of a great shift in social wealth in the US. It means that the last 9 months have likely seen a massive upward shift in the distribution of America's wealth. We have seen massive increases in labor productivity with stagnant wages. We have surging stock and bond markets and struggling housing markets. The shifts in wealth and income over the last year will take a while to show up in national data. There are already being felt around many kitchen tables. It is likely that the wealth and income trends discussed above will have profound impacts on life for tens of millions of American families. It is also likely that these trends and public responses to them, will drive American political developments for the next few years. 


3. The Gilded Age on Steroids
I taught the Gilded Age last week in my US History course, and spoke about it the way I always have, a period of intense struggle for working Americans.

Now is just as bad.  Here's Russ Feingold, and his is the language you would have liked to hear, at any point, from the President you voted for in 2008.

this entire society is being dominated by corporate power in a way that may exceed what happened in the late nineteenth century, early twentieth century. The incredible power these institutions now have over the average person is just overwhelming: the way they can make these trade deals to ship people’s jobs overseas, the way consumers are just brutalized and consumer protection laws are marginalized, the way this town here—Washington—has become a corporate playground. Since I’ve been here, this place has gone from a government town to a giant corporate headquarters. To me, the whole face of the country—whether it be the government, the media, agriculture, what happens on Main Street—has become so corporatized that the progressive movement is as relevant as it was one hundred years ago, maybe more so. It’s the same issues. It’s just that [corporate] power, because of money, international arrangements and communications, is so overwhelming that the average person is nearly helpless unless we develop a movement that can counter that power. I know we’ve all tried over the years, but this is a critical moment. We need to regenerate progressivism and make it relevant to what’s happening right now. But there’s no lack of historical comparison to a hundred years ago. It’s so similar; the only real difference is that corporate power is even more extended. It’s the Gilded Age on steroids.

And when they call you a socialist - tell them to go to hell.  They think the minimum wage and the Civil Rights Act of 1964 are totalitarianism and torture is a necessary exercise of governmental authority.  They're the John Birch Society.  They think Joe McCarthy's an American hero and the Progressive Era was Stalinism starting an out of town run in Cleveland before heading to Red Square.  They're coming for Social Security.  They're coming for Medicare.  They're coming for everything but guns - which they want their supporters to carry every chance they get to intimidate you. 

You don't call for civility - you don't say we need a new tone.  You tell them to go to hell.  They stole a Presidential election in 2000; they've opened up campaigns to unlimited secret corporate funding, they have, in Fox News, a propaganda arm that has only the barest tether to the facts in the all too often correct guess that their viewers won't know the difference. 

A hundred years ago, Populist Mary Lease said farmers needed to raise less corn and more hell. 

That's what Feingold's saying.  That's what I will need to hear if I'll ever cast a vote for a Democrat again.


4. Eisenhower = Bernie Sanders


If there's one theme in the totality of the 61 issues of Tendown that I've tried to stress - it's been that critics of Obama from the right talking about his Administration as some type of socialist takeover of the American government are profoundly, demonstrably without any understanding of history.

Fortunately, there's Rachel Maddow.

You want to talk about red meat for the base? Listen to some of the language the president used. "Workers have a right to organize into unions and to bargain collectively with their employers. And a strong, free labor movement is an invigorating and necessary part of our industrial society." Wow.

How about this one? "Only a fool would try to deprive working men and women of their right to join the union of their choice."

Listen to the way he goes after the right here. "Should any political party attempt to abolish Social Security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things, but their number is negligible and"--and the president says--"their number is negligible and they are stupid."

That is not what Barack Obama said last night. That is way to the left of any national Democrat at this point. 

That was all Republican President Dwight David Eisenhower. That was all the stuff he said when he was president.

Republican President Dwight Eisenhower, president when the top tax bracket for the richest people in this country was 92 percent. President Eisenhower defended that tax bracket. He said we cannot afford to reduce taxes until, quote, "the factors of income and outgo will be balanced." Eisenhower insisting there must be a balanced budget and that taxes on the rich are the way to balance it. Dwight Eisenhower, you know, noted leftist.

The Republican Party platform of Eisenhower's 1956 called for expansion of Social Security, broadened unemployment insurance, better health protection for all of our people. It called for voting rights--full voting civil rights for D.C. It called for expanding the minimum wage to cover more workers. It called for improved job safety for workers, equal pay for workers regardless of sex.

This is the Republican Party circa 1956. The Republican Party.

The story of modern American politics writ large is the story of your father's and your grandfather's Republican Party now being way to the left of today's leftiest liberals. If Dwight Eisenhower were running for office today, he would have to run, I'm guessing as an independent, and not as some Joe Lieberman, in between the parties, independent. He'd be a Bernie Sanders independent. 


5. The Dream of the Nineties is Alive in Portland.


New shows you should be watching: Portlandia and Lights Out.  I love me a good sketch show and Portlandia's initial episodes are solid.  Lights Out is off to a strong start also - my Top 5 Sports TV Shows of all time can be found here; we're a couple of seasons away from considering Lights Out a potential contender, but it's off to a good start.

Also - the new At the Movies is worth watching - in the meantime, you can watch some clips from the old show.

6. Next Week - Santiago Casilla!

Giants closer Brian Wilson was on the George Lopez show this week.  He's in some sort of un-funny competition with Chelsea Handler, right?  'Cause I'm a pretty good Giants fan, and I still couldn't watch George Lopez.

It's behind the firewall, but Keith Law's look at the top 100 prospects in MLB is here. Two SFG on the list, Brandon Belt is 17th, and not unlike Posey in 2010, if you're a Giants fan a good, good sign is Belt being called up in the first half to take over either in first or left.  Zack Wheeler's 36th, you won't see him this year, but when Zito's deal expires (or perhaps when we deal Cain since we won't be able to afford keeping him) he'll join the rotation.

7. Would You Like to Talk About Rape?
Specifically, about how the Republicans would like to redefine it to change abortion law?

For years, federal laws restricting the use of government funds to pay for abortions have included exemptions for pregnancies resulting from rape or incest. (Another exemption covers pregnancies that could endanger the life of the woman.) But the "No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act," a bill with 173 mostly Republican co-sponsors that House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) has dubbed a top priority in the new Congress, contains a provision that would rewrite the rules to limit drastically the definition of rape and incest in these cases.

With this legislation, which was introduced last week by Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.), Republicans propose that the rape exemption be limited to "forcible rape." This would rule out federal assistance for abortions in many rape cases, including instances of statutory rape, many of which are non-forcible. For example: If a 13-year-old girl is impregnated by a 24-year-old adult, she would no longer qualify to have Medicaid pay for an abortion. (Smith's spokesman did not respond to a call and an email requesting comment.)


8. Have an Abortion!


Consider the following study of over 350,000 women.


Having an abortion does not increase the risk of mental health problems, but having a baby does, one of the largest studies to compare the aftermath of both decisions suggests.


The research by Danish scientists further debunks the notion that terminating a pregnancy can trigger mental illness and shows postpartum depression to be much more of a factor.




9. Minka Kelly - Smartest Person Alive

Turns out that more attractive people also have higher IQ's.  Which seems fair.

10. Your World Champion San Francisco Giants

It takes 11 postseason wins to become World Series Champions.  This was our 5th.  NLCS - Game 3.

Matt Cain (combined WAR/WARP 9.2) shut the Phils down in Game 3.  They got two on in the 3rd on a single and hit batsman; they got two on in the 4th on a single and a walk - but we scored first in the 4th; Edgar Renteria (2.2) moving into the starting postseason lineup after (correctly) being benched for most of 2010, led off with a single; following two outs and a Burrell (6.0) walk, Cody Ross and Aubrey Huff hit back to back singles to put us up 2-0; and that became 3-0 the following inning with an Aaron Rowand double/Freddy Sanchez single.  Cain put two on in the 7th, but again got out of it - Javier Lopez/Brian Wilson had a harmless 8th/9th to finish the 3-0 shutout.  5 down.  6 to go.


That's all for this time.  I'll be back next time...if there is a next time...


Your pal,


Jim