Week One - NFL Picks (with season predictions and my fantasy squads)).

I don't have any idea who will win the games in the first week of the NFL season.  Don't bet them.  Seriously.  Pay attention to me in six weeks.  This is just for completion purposes, as I'm going to pick every game all year.  Seriously.  Nothing good can come from playing a week one NFL game.  Nothing.  In fact, as I am going to pick every game all year in this space, consider ignoring it altogether.  Move on.  Go read something else.  Know what's good?  Mr Rogers clips on youtube.  Mr. Rogers was a good man, and I'm a bit of an ass to be honest.  Not bad hearted, just prickly. 

Carolina +1 Philadephia (loss)
NYG -6.5 Washington (loss)
Tampa +6 Dallas (loss)
Minnesota -4 Cleveland (win)
Chicago +3.5 GBay (loss)
New Orleans -13 Detroit (win)
Miami +4 Atlanta (loss)
SF +6.5 Arizona (win)
St. Louis +8.5 Seattle (loss)
NYJ +4.5 Houston (win)
NE -10.5 Buff (loss)
Baltimore -13 KC (win)
Tenn +6 Pitt (win)
Den +4.5 Cincinnati (win)
Jax +7 Indy (win)
SD -9 Oak (loss)

Overall:  8-8

2009 NFL Picks

AFC East

1. New England 12-4
-Brady's back, maybe more importantly an over the hill defense has been turned over nicely; if their secondary, which still has a patchwork quality to it, improves, they're going to the Super Bowl.   They still don't have any running backs unless Fred Taylor has more juice than it looked like last year. 

2. New York Jets 7-9
-Sanchez is one of my guys, but I don't like rookie QB (and have last year's terrible Atlanta pick as evidence) and exascerbating the rookie problem is Sanchez is a rookie with a real small number of college starts.  The schedule toughens up this year and the Jets were largely injury free a year ago.  I really like the defense and think 2010 is much more promising than 2009. 

3. Miami Dolphins 7-9
-This is why they invented the phrase regression to the mean.  Fish rode soft schedule and gimmick offense to big improvement last year, they slide this year.  That's how it usually goes.  Pennington's backing up on one of my fantasy teams.

4. Buffalo 5-11 (under 7.5 wins)
-That over/under looks like a good investment.  TO wasn't good last year and hasn't played this year; teams that turn over their OL usually require time to gell; I'm not in love with the "let's fire the OC" mentality that swept across the league in the past week, and while there's some young talent on defense, it seems a big stretch to see it showing up at an 8 win level. 


AFC North

1. Pittsburgh 10-6
-Roethlisburger's my starting QB on 2 of 3 fantasy teams, so I'm counting on him to keep his hands to himself for a few months.  There's no reason to think they won't be double digit wins again.

2. Baltimore 9-7 WC
-I loved the Ravens last year...if they started Troy Smith over Flacco.  So, take that into consideration.  Ravens led league in time of possession running their 1958 offense last year, some regression is likely.  I've got Mason on 2 fantasy teams.

3. Cincinnati 6-10
-Do I need to start calling Chad Ochocinco now?  I didn't last year, but at what point does that make me Floyd Patterson, just getting my ass whipped while Ali shouts "what's my name" (the equivalent would be what, "child please?") Chad's on one of my fantasy teams.  Bengals have lots of Trojans (Palmer, Rivers, and Maualuga, one of my all time favorites, and I wanted to see him become a Niner in a hard way) so like the Jets in the East, I'll be rooting for them in the Central, but with that OL (probably a lost season, at least half season, for Andre Smith, right?) and lack of pass rush this is top end for this team.

4. Cleveland 4-12 (under 6.5)
-This is full on rebuild.  That's a nice investment in the under.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis 12-4 (over 10 wins)
-They've won 12 games or more six straight years.  That's a trend I'm willing to follow.  I have Anthony Gonzalez on two fantasy teams.

2. Jacksonville 9-7 WC
-As a rule, when you have a good team that suffers a lot of injuries and the record suffers accordingly - look for a bounce back.  This is that bounce back.  I've got Garrard as my backup QB on one team.  I've got Torry Holt on two teams. 

3. Tennessee 8-8
-Albert Haynesworth was the best defensive player in football last year.  He's gone, Titans regress.

4. Houston 8-8
-I rode Slaton/Johnson to a fantasy title last year; I have neither on any of my 3 teams this season.  I do have Daniels twice, however. Texans turn the ball over too much; Schaub gets hurt too much; the Texans can't stop the run.  I have to divisions predicted with no one under .500, which seems unlikely.

AFC West

1. San Diego 12-4 Super Bowl Champs (over 10 wins)
-I don't know if Shawne Merriman choked Tila Tequila (what a bizarre thing to type) over the weekend, but I do know if he were a baseball player with a PED suspension in his jacket the phrase roid rage would be applied all week.  Just as if there were a baseball player with the kind of aggressive, way over the borderline-dirty reputation that Rodney Harrison has, his PED suspension would mean there was no network analyst job waiting for him post-career.  I watched Mike Tyson documentary last week (it's good, not required watching, but good to see, Tyson's always been the most compelling athlete of his time) and my thought, as it always is, is about Evander Holyfield still getting to keep his reputation.  The evidence linking Holyfield to steroids is at least as strong as the Bonds/Clemens evidence, there is "character" evidence that sportswriters care about when it's other guys (Holyfield has 11 children with 7 women), and as you watch those two fights with Tyson - and see the former cruiserweight Holyfield ram his oversized head into Tyson - over and over again - just butting him with impunity in both fights - Tyson's biting Holyfield looks less the product of a "bully giving up when confronted" (the way the Sports Industrial Complex always frames the acts) - and more of an admittedly unbalanced man taking extra-legal measures to protect himself.  Why isn't Holyfield Barry Bonds (except, of course, that Bonds is a god, the greatest player in National League history) except more violent, worse with money, and with a dislike of birth control? 

I'm picking the Chargers to win the whole thing.  I have LT on one team, I have Rivers on one team.  I have Vincent Jackson on two and the Chargers defense on one. 

2. Kansas City 7-9
I've got Bowe on one team and Cassel and Charles backing up on another.  This is a hard team to get a read on; if it's December and they're a surprise WC contender that wouldn't be a shock.

3. Oakland 5-11
-If it's December and Oakland isn't still a little embarassing that would be a shock - there's talent, more talent than this record, but that place is a mess.

4. Denver 5-11
-This is a bigger mess, at least for this season.  Denver had a terrible defense and a pretty strong offense in 2008, they gutted the latter and left the former intact.  This is a rebuild. 

NFC East

1. New York Giants NFC Champs 11-5
I'm a Umenyiora guy; the increased DL depth benefits the defense - if the OL stays healthy again, this is my NFC pick.  I've got Jacobs on one team and Hixon (underrated) on two. 

2. Philadelphia 9-7 WC
-I've written about Vick before, but smart people (including Dave Zirin, the country's most prominent lefty sportswriter and I guy I look up to in the field) continue to get this wrong.  So, let's phrase it like this.  No, to answer the question, not everyone gets a "second" chance.  To call running a dog torturing scheme for six years only a "first strike" seems a little perverse; had Vick just set up one rape stand, just attached jumper cables to electrocute one dog - and then after paying a penalty was reinstated, then he'd be on his second chance (assuming one doesn't care about whatever he put in his water bottle at the airport and the name Ron Mexico, which, to be fair, I don't).  But 6 years of torturing animals is probably not the equivalent of one swing and a miss at a slider.  Further, there are some crimes from which Vick wouldn't be reinstated.  If Rae Carruth's conviction is overturned on a technicality, he wouldn't be reinstated.  If OJ Simpson had killed his wife and her waiter friend in 1975 instead of 1995, he wouldn't have been reinstated after his acquittal.  We can ratchet that down a few notches.  What if it were rape?  Mike Tyson did a couple of years for rape - if there were an NFL player convicted of rape and released after serving two years, would he be a backup QB two years later?  What if he just gave a few 14 year old boys handjobs?  What is a worse moral offense?  6 years of torturing dogs in as vicious a way imaginable - or maybe inviting a handful (pun intended) of teenage boys over to the crib for some Madden, some Jesus juice, and a little mutual wacking?  If Vick had done that, would there be people wearing his jersey in Philadelphia today?  If Vick had been ensnared by Dateline for cyberchatting up a young girl - would he have a "second" chance?

Lots of reasons not to get a second chance.  We are absolutely saying as a society that we are less offended by Vick with his returning to the NFL.

As I've written before, it's a complicated ethical spot.  I'm uncertain how to attack Vick and also defend my eating fried chicken just twenty minutes ago.  Kill dogs and its prison.  Kill pigs and its breakfast.

I see that too.  And because of that it's not unreasonable to let Vick back in the league.

But it's also not unreasonable to be revolted by him.  He can make a living if there's a team willing to sign his paycheck.  I'm of the mind that no players should ever be banned by commissioners - if a team wants to sign Vick, as far as I'm concerned, it can.

But wow - can I say that dude, and now the Eagles, who I've liked - liked McNabb, liked Reid - they are dead to me.  There are no Eagles on my fantasy teams; I hope they go 0-16.  If Vick got hurt it wouldn't break my heart.  We'd be a better country if my meat eating sins were held against me; I'd be a far better person if I had the discipline to enforce those prohibitions myself.  Until then, until my/our ethical dissonance is satisfied, I have a new least favorite professional sports team.

3. Dallas 9-7
-Replacing my old least favorite team.  As do all right thinking people, I hate the Cowboys.  If they can stay healthy, they'll be better than this.  If they can't, they'll be worse.  Yeah, you're right.  The Dodgers are still my real least favorite team. 

4. Washington 8-8
-I've got Portis on one team - I still like Jason Campbell (I also still like Matt Leinart) and with Haynesworth aboard I just don't see this as a bad football team. 

NFC North

1. Chicago 10-6 (over 8.5 wins)
I've got Forte in one league.  I've got the defense in two. The OL turnover is a concern early and Cutler's move to Chicago doesn't really have a parallel in recent league history - that makes it a hard forecast - I'll go high and say Bears win a competitive division.

2. Green Bay 10-6 WC
-There's gonna be some firepower offensively, and I think the switch to the 3-4 will, at least by season's end, really send the Pack into the playoffs on a big roll. 

3. Minnesota 9-7
-Remember when I was the only guy who hated Brett Favre?  I've got Berrian on all 3 fantasy teams.

4. Detroit 4-12
-They'll be better.

NFC South

1. New Orleans 8-8
The offense will score a bunch; I've got Bush in one league.  They'll need to score a bunch to compensate for how much they give up.  I figure it comes out in the wash.

2. Carolina 8-8
Delhomme threw 37 interceptions the last time he played a game that counted. 

3. Atlanta 7-9
-Curse of 370!  More regression to the mean.

4. Tampa Bay 7-9
-Probably either the Saints or Panthers pick up a game and the Bucs lose one - but because I don't know which one of those teams is going to get that win, I'm sitting here with no one over .500.


NFC West

1. Seattle 9-7
-No Walter Jones, no Marcus Trufant, Julius Jones is the starting RB and still I have them winning the division.  Welcome to the NFC West.  I've got Mare on every team I have.

2. Arizona 7-9
-The Cards are solid favorites, but their pythag last year was 8-8, their becoming the worst ever SB team doesn't change their seasonlong mediocrity.  Sure, they could go 9-7 and win the division and it wouldn't be a surprise, but they aren't playing February again.

3. San Francisco 7-9 (my team, for those unaware)
- Well, so, here are my Niners.  I have none on any of 3 fantasy teams if that's a tip in some direction.  If anything, this is a game too high, I don't see a scenario where we're 9-7.  Maybe it's moving in the right direction; it's not demonstrably wrong, so that's something.  I'm not in a position, after a decade of awful, to protest Singletary, despite his really not being my kind of coach.  I'd rather have Leinart than any QB on the roster; the OL should be better; Glen Coffee looks like a terrific pick for a tandem backfield; I like Josh Morgan and (I think) still believe Crabtree will come to terms.  There are some good players on defense.  I like the general approach of the front office, more than I do, say the approach of my SFG - and I'm glad Jed has taken control.  I didn't think the owner of the Niners would be so much younger than I am when I'm still so boyish and lovely myownself, but there you go.  I will cheer.  That's what I do. 

4. St. Louis 6-10 (over 5.5 wins)
-The Rams are moving in the right direction.  I've got SJax on two teams.

Those who were with me in the old place may recall that I play 3 fantasy leagues ($) each season in hoops, baseball, and NFL.  I was on a good run until this baseball season, when I did nothing good in any league and there's just not a good excuse I can make for it.  I was wrong and I'll own it.

Here's the damage, after a long Labor Day of drafting.  All are 12 team, non PPR, with flex, head to head.

Team One
QB Roethlisberger, Pennington
RB SJax, Jacobs, RBrown, Mendenhall
WR AGonzalez, Ochocinco, Berrian, Holt, Hixon
TE Daniels
D Bears
K Mare

Team Two
QB Roethlisberger, Garrard
RB SJax, LT2, LWhite, Betts, Charles
WR  VJax, Bowe, AGonzalez, Berrian
TE Daniels
D Bears
K Mare

Team Three
QB Rivers, Cassel
RB Forte, Portis, JJones, Bush
WR Ward, Holt, Berrian, Hixon, Mason
TE Winslow
D Chargers
K Mare

51%

Only 51% of Kentuckians believe the President of the United States was born in the United States.

This is why every other industrialized country in the world has health care.  And we have 18,000 Americans dying every year because of a lack of health insurance.

You want a death panel?  A death panel is an insurance company denying you coverage because of a pre-existing condition.  That didn't stop Rudy from waving the invisible bloody shirt on Meet the Press Sunday; saying that without tort reform the only way to pay for new health care is by pulling the plug on grandma.

Tort reform's a scam.  I know you've been told otherwise, by the insurance lobby for the past twenty years, but here's a quick clue - there have been numerous states like mine, which have had aggressive tort reform, capping damage awards, limiting potential claims, narrowing the courthourse doorway opening to potential plaintffs.  But somehow insurance premiums don't fall accordingly.  Somehow, it turns out that insurance companies are really just interesting in making every dollar they can.  Tort reform's just another way to accomplish that. 

We're too dumb to survive.  We are going to wave flags and and guns and bibles until we collapse.  Lots of reasons for this.  The corporatized media, as discussed in today's Greenwald is a good place to start.

I thought Oakland giving up a 1 for Richard Seymour was the dumbest thing I'd see all weekend.  Then I thought that Juan Manuel Marquez drinking his own urine in preparation for his upcoming loss to Floyd Mayweather was the most backward thing I'd see all weekend.  And then I saw that poll.

Half of the people in Kentucky think that Obama was born in the United States.  Half. There you go.

Simple Jack Bakes Kwanzaa Cake.

I enjoy the Food Network, despite (or perhaps because) much of it is shot like porn, with the extreme closeups and the money shots.

I never gave much thought to Sandra Lee until I saw this. It's something she calls a Kwanzaa Cake - which naturally commemorates African heritage with popcorn, corn nuts, and apple pie filling.  It's as if she saw the one Friends episode where Rachel makes that trifle with jam and ground beef and peas and sponge cake and thought "not only does that Jennifer Aniston have kick ass hair and sure can keep a man, but look how colorful that dessert looks!  Peas and Jam!  Why had no one thought of this before!"

It's as big a revelatory train wreck as you're likely to see, it's the moment where you recognize not that Sandra Lee had a bad day, it's that she simply has no idea what she's doing.  It's bad enough that I'm always surprised she's been able to keep her gig; she was just so exposed as fraudulent, I can't believe anyone could view that and ever take her seriously again.

It was precisely the same thought I had watching this.  Simple Jack goes on a nearly ten minute rant about how Rockefeller Center (and therefore NBC) is ground zero for a secret communist/fasicst/progressive plot based on hidden messages in the artwork that prefigure the rise of Obama.

No.  I'm not kidding. 

These types of lunatics used to be confined to the outhouse of political debate; Lyndon LaRouche has been around for decades; the John Birch Society decades before that.  Probably you've gotten a INCOME TAX IS UNCONSTITUTIONAL, HERE'S THE PROOF! email from some wingnut (or Wesley Snipes); I used to encounter the occasional criminal defendant who said the .19 that he blew should be excluded from evidence as under principles of maritime law American criminal courts had no jurisdiction over his actions. 

But now they're on TV.  And the radio.  And they have book deals.  And they run school boards.

School districts in 7 states aren't going to run Obama's "hey kids, work hard, study, stay in school" speech next week out of concern that it will be communist propaganda. A "keep your kids at home" movement is underway among the right.

It seems, as has much of the right blather since the election, like purposeless hyperbole.  You know Obama's not building an unholy socialist army of the night.  If there are people who don't, they're too far gone to reason with.

But simultaneously in the news cycle comes this. That's the Texas state board of education preparing to change the way US history is taught in Texas, in a way that props up "significant conservative advocacy organizations and individuals, such as Newt Gingrich, Phyllis Schlafly, and the Moral Majority" without any sort of progressive equivalent.  This is important because Texas and California drive the high school textbook market - a version of US History taught in Texas may well become the version of US History taught everywhere. 

Under the shouts of "Obama's indoctrinating schoolchildren" comes actual propaganda forced into curricula. 

You want to laugh when conservatives talk about death panels and concentration camps and not providing Republicans health care.  You know it's bonkers.  You know they're just Birchers with power.

But then you recognize they're Birchers with power.  And you wonder what it is they have in store for us.

Unrelated: (1) Start Buster Posey.  (2) I'm on Team Michele.

The Weekly Ten: College Football Predictions (Season and Week One:)

My top 20 is now finalized for the season.

Below are my week one picks - this season, I'm going to limit myself to ten picks each week (the weekly ten); last year I struggled early before having a terrific bowl season - history shows that (particularly in the NFL where I'm really likely to struggle) I'm better late than early. 

With that said:

Tennessee -29.5 Western Kentucky (win)
Georgia +4.5 Oklahoma St. (loss)
Missouri +6.5 Illinois (win)
Wake -2.5 Baylor (loss)
USC (Fight On!) -32.5 San Jose St. (win)
Clemson -18.5 Mid Tenn St. (win)
Auburn -13.5 LaTech (win)
UCLA -19.5 SD St. (loss)
Va Tech +6.5 Alabama (loss)
Lock of the Week: Notre Dame -14.5 Nevada (win)

6-4.  I'll take it. 

2009 College Football Top 20.

1. Florida
2. USC (my team, and for a weekend, my undergraduate school, for those unaware)
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma
5. Georgia
6. Ohio St.
7. California
8. Georgia Tech
9. Virginia Tech
10. LSU (my girlfriend's team. We like her despite this.)
11. Clemson
12. Alabama
13. Auburn
14. West Virginia
15. Boston College
16. Florida St.
17. Notre Dame
18. Miami
19. Penn St.
20. Oklahoma St.

Consider the following: Ole Miss under 9 wins. Nebraska under 8 wins. North Carolina under 8 wins. Illinois under 8 wins.

The 200 Greatest Major League Baseball Players Ever, Revised and Updated, 2009 Ed.

Edit - I'm redoing this list, 2011 version, you can find it here.

I like sports. I like sports analysis and discussion. The grease that lubricates sports discussion has historically consisted of some variation of "Who's Better: X or Y?"

I recall being 10-11 years old and just laboriously pouring over Maury Allen's book where he listed the Top 100 players in MLB history; I'm a sucker for lists, be they films or books or rankings of Supreme Court justices, I want to play.

Performance analysis has advanced since 1981 (although you shouldn't tell Murray Chass...hell, you can't really tell Bob Costas; my guess is that we would agree far more often than not on the big issues of the day, perhaps even on more metaphysical matters - but when I watch he and Keith Olbermann talk about baseball as if the sabermetric insights of the past quarter-century haven't happened, that they continue to deny the massive paradigm shift that has occurred during their professional careers and instead revert back to the same level of understanding they had as children, I get incredibly frustrated) and my views have evolved; first with Bill James, then with Pete Palmer, then Rob Neyer and Baseball Prospectus.

This is my ranking of the 200 Best Major League Baseball Players of All Time; my reliance is not on anecdote, not on fitting into a particular childhood narrative that player X simply must be better than player y. My reliance is on facts and not faith, on statistics and not storyline. I happen to believe that baseball is more objectively quantifiable - the "truth" of what happens on a baseball diamond more knowable than in virtually any human endeavor.

WARP3 is, in my view, the superior "universal theory of everything" number; I prefer it vastly to Win Shares (heresy to some, I recognize) as expressing actual career value. The list is skewed to career, as opposed to peak value - I'm attempting to express who had the greatest careers as opposed to "on any given day, who would you pick to win one baseball game for you." That's a reasonable list, I guess, but it's not this one. I add the Pete Palmer numbers, which used to be expressed in the Total Player Rating from Total Baseball and are now BFW and PW in the Baseball Encyclopedia as they serve to express the value of peak, and give a different defensive perspective than the Davenport translations from WARP3. Additionally, I've now added a "Most Valuable Player Quality" seasonal component which further props up the value of peak to a point where that's less a disparity than it was in previous incarnations of the list. BP expresses peak itself with a JAWS number, taking the 7 best years and combining it with the WARP3, and at some point, all of those numbers will be sortable and, one assumes, they'll put out their own list of this type; I might even prefer it to mine. The defensive metrics have really evolved even since I began putting the list together, that partially explains the differences between the version you're about to see and any previous you may have read from me. The level of evolution has also served to further reduce the degree to which this is just a career as opposed to a peak list. It's still solely a regular season list, completely ignoring the postseason.

Right now, I want to read a book that, using the statistics which I believe are most revelatory, lists the 200 best MLB players ever. A book that adjusts for era and ballpark; that doesn't reflexively list the same top players at each position that the author decided upon when he was 12...

Spoiler alert.....

The greatest catcher of all time is no longer Johnny Bench.

...if there was a book like that, I'd buy it.

But there's not. So - I'm writing this list.

I've done a ton of player comments, some of which aren't bad and I'll be moving them over as time permits; if circumstances ever allow me not to teach 7 classes ever term, I may get back to them. I'm developing a twitch.

My working plan has always been to review the list after the 2010 season; we'll see where things stand then.

I have football lists, they'll be out by the time the season starts, and I have some basketball stuff - largely that's all made up (football less than hoops, which is entirely made up). But, at least for my own mind (and I'm a bit of a hard case) this list is definitive. At least for today. Everything's provisional when we're talking about tomorrow. The numbers are as of August, 2009, save for the Pete Palmer BFW number - I have the fielder wins through only 2007. I've listed primary teams/positions below.

Thank god it's done.  Exhausting.

From 1871-2008, here are the 200 greatest MLB careers.

1. BABE RUTH RF /LF/P
1914-35
Red Sox/Yankees
BFW 112
PW 17
WARP3 198.7
OPS+ 207
ERA+ 122
MVPQuality: 1916, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23 (best season), 24, 26, 27, 31


2. BARRY BONDS LF
1986-2007
Pirates/Giants
WARP3 192.6
BFW 128.7
OPS+ 182
MVP Quality: 1990, 92, 93 (best season), 95, 96, 2001, 02, 03, 04,

-Bonds and Ruth are close; in the previous version of this list Barry beat Babe by the equivalent value of one extra MVP quality season and now it’s flip-flopped (what I’m saying there isn’t that he did actually have one more MVPQ season, although he did, but when you crunch all the numbers, that’s how far ahead he is of Bonds – if they played at the exact same time, it would be like if they had the same career for 19 years, but in year 20, Bonds retired and Ruth won the MVP Award and then retired; so it’s extra close, but Ruth does win the race. In the commentary portion throughout this list, I’ll refer to the distance between guys in terms of how many MVPQ years separate them and that’s what I’ll mean) with the new adjustments Ruth retakes his place as the best baseball player ever, which, since Barry’s my guy, disappoints me. Third place is five MVP quality seasons behind; it's far enough behind that I really don't think there's a serious argument that Bonds and Ruth aren't the two best baseball players who ever lived.

3. WILLIE MAYS CF
1951-73
Giants
WARP3 177.6
BFW 84.4
OPS+ 156
MVPQ: 1954 (best season), 55, 57, 58, 59, 60, 62, 63, 64, 65

4. WALTER JOHNSON RHP
1907-27
Senators
PW 89.9
WARP3 172
ERA+ 147
MVPQ: 1912, 13 (best) 14, 15, 16, 18, 19
-Johnson’s the best pitcher who ever lived; Mays is one MVPQ season up on the Train, and Johnson’s 3 up on the next group. So, just as I’m comfortable that, in some order, Ruth/Bonds need to be considered 1-2; in some order, Mays/Johnson need to be considered 3-4. I really think those are matters solidly proven. It does not escape notice to this Giants fan that San Francisco had the two greatest players in NL history for a combined quarter century and never won a World Series.

5. TY COBB CF
1905-28
Tigers
BFW 85.9
WARP3 158.5
OPS+ 167
MVPQ: 1909, 10, 11, 15, 17 (best)

6. HONUS WAGNER SS
1897-17
Pirates
BFW 82.2
WARP3 158.7
OPS+ 150
MVPQ: 1900, 01, 07, 08 (best) 09, 12

-There is no statistically significant difference between Cobb and Wagner; you put them in either order – but recognize now we are 10 MVPQ seasons behind Ruth.

7. HANK AARON RF
1954-76
Braves
BFW 83
WARP3 159.4
OPS+ 155
MVPQ: 1956 (best season) 57, 59, 60

8. ROGER CLEMENS RHP
1984-07
Red Sox/Yankees
PW73.5
WARP3 164.5
ERA+ 143
MVPQ: 86, 87, 90, 97 (best), 05

-Aaron’s half an MVPQ season behind Cobb; he and Clemens are statistically the same. Clemens is the second best pitcher who ever lived – three MVPQ behind Johnson and 2 ahead of the next pitcher on the list…who I will keep secret for now. Secrets!

9. STAN MUSIAL 1B/LF/RF
1941-63
Cardinals
BFW 76
WARP3 152.8
OPS+ 159
MVPQ: 1943 (best) 44, 46, 48, 49, 51

-Musial’s less than one MVPQ behind Aaron, also less than one MVPQ ahead of #10.

10. RICKEY HENDERSON LF
1979-03
Athletics/Yankees
BFW 70.3
WARP3 155.8
OPS+ 127
MVPQ: 1980, 81, 85, 90 (best)

-And that’s your top ten MLB players ever. Canseco said there is a current HOF’er who used steroids. Rickey’s best season was 1990, one of the years he played with Jose Canseco. Doesn’t make it so and if it was so, I don’t particularly care. Just pointing it out. Rickey’s 2 MVPQ seasons behind Cobb.

11. NAP LAJOIE 2B
1896-16
Phillies/Indians
BFW 95.4
WARP3 125.9
OPS+150
MVPQ: 1901, 03, 04, 06, 10 (best)

-Who is the greatest second baseman who ever lived? My vote’s for Lajoie; he and Rickey are basically interchangeable for the last spot in the top 10.

12. ROGERS HORNSBY 2B
1915-37
Cardinals/Cubs
BFW 86
WARP3 128.6
OPS+ 175
MVPQ 1920, 21, 24 (best), 27, 28, 29,

-Holy cats look at that OPS+! Half of an MVP season behind Nap. Hornsby was the starting second baseman on my subjective all time team from the time I was 8 years old, but not anymore, despite the advantage with the bat.

13. TRIS SPEAKER CF
1907-28
Red Sox/Indians
BFW 82.8
WARP3 143.7
OPS+ 158
MVPQ: 1912, 14 (best)

-Speaker’s 1 ½ MVPQ seasons behind Musial; he and Hornsby literally could not be closer. I think probably in constructing the all-time team who you have to bump to the reserves is Gehrig, that you need to make Speaker your 6th and final OF and move Musial to start at first. I’m going to say it’s Musial and Lajoie on the right side of the all-time infield. How about that!

14. GREG MADDUX RHP
1986-06
Cubs/Braves
BFW 65.4
WARP3 155.6
ERA+ 132
MVPQ 1992, 94, 95 (best)

-The third greatest pitcher who ever lived. Maddux is a little over 2 MVPQ behind Clemens and is right in this statistical bunch with Hornsby and Speaker.

15. TED WILLIAMS LF
1939-60
Red Sox
BFW 86.5
WARP3 128.2
OPS+ 191
MVPQ 1941, 42, 46 (best) 47

-Yes, that means Ted Williams, by OPS+ the second greatest hitter who ever lived, doesn’t make my all time baseball team.

16. CY YOUNG RHP
1890-11
Spiders/Red Sox
PW 77
WARP3 140.3
ERA+ 138
MVPQ: 1893, 95, 01 (best)

-Young is the 4th greatest pitcher who ever lived, just a half of an MVPQ behind Maddux.

17. EDDIE COLLINS 2B
1906-30
Athletics/White Sox
BFW 73.1
WARP3 137.8
OPS+ 141
MVPQ 1909 (best)10, 13, 15, 20

-Collins/Young/Williams are all in a bunch, sort them any way you like for the overall ranking. Collins is just a little more than half of an MVPQ season behind Hornsby, so a full season behind Lajoie. There just isn’t much to choose from among all three guys; if you were to prefer a different ordering, I wouldn’t have a strong objection.

18. MEL OTT RF
1926-47
Giants
BFW60.7
WARP3 141.4
OPS+ 155
MVPQ 1932 (best) 34, 35, 36, 38 (best)

-Ott, the third Giant in the top 20 MLB players who ever lived, albeit not SFG, so I don’t really feel proprietary to the same degree I do Bonds/Mays, is one MVPQ season behind the Splinter.

19. MICKEY MANTLE CF
1951-68
Yankees
BFW 71.8
WARP3 124.9
OPS+ 172
MVPQ 1955, 56, 57 (best) 58, 61
-Drop another 50% of an MVP season from Ott and there's Mantle.

20. JOE MORGAN 2B
1963-84
Astros/Reds
BFW 68.5
WARP3 127.4
OPS+ 132
MVPQ 1972, 73, 74, 75 (best), 76

-Morgan and Mantle are statistically interchangeable – Morgan’s 1 ½ MVPQ behind Collins, so about 2 behind Hornsby and 2 ½ behind Lajoie. I love me some Joe Morgan, but I really don’t think there’s a great argument he’s the best 2B ever.

21. MIKE SCHMIDT 3B
1972-89
Phillies
BFW 77.3
WARP3 122.7
OPS+ 147
MVPQ 1976 (best) 81

-Schmidt, of course, is the greatest third baseman ever and now, except for catcher, the starting lineup for my all time team is set:

1B Musial
2B Lajoie
SS Wagner
3B Schmidt
LF Bonds
CF Mays
RF Aaron
P Johnson

22. GROVER CLEVELAND ALEXANDER RHP
1911-30
Phillies/Cubs/Cardinals
PW 62.9
WARP3 132.2
ERA+ 135
MVPQ 1915, 16, 20 (best)

-And now we have a 5 man starting staff for the all time team. All right handed. But the lefties are coming soon.

1. Johnson
2. Clemens
3. Maddux
4. Young
5. Alexander

Pete and Schmidt are in a dead heat over first man outside the top 20.

23. FRANK ROBINSON RF/LF
1956-76
Reds/Orioles
BFW 65
WARP3 126.1
OPS+ 154
MVPQ 1966

-Drop back a full MVPQ season from Alexander and you have Frank.

24. LOU GEHRIG 1B
1923-39
Yankees
BFW 70.9
WARP3 113.7
OPS+ 179
MVPQ 1927 (best), 34

-Half an MVPQ season behind Frank comes Gehrig.

25. EDDIE MATHEWS 3B
1952-68
Braves
BFW 53
WARP3 122.2
OPS+ 143
MVPQ 1954, 55, 57 (best) 59, 60

-In his career, Mathews topped 10 WARP3 seasons 5 times (5 MVPQ seasons) to his teammate Aaron’s 4. Now, he still finished 6 ½ MVPQ seasons behind Aaron and winds up here, rounding out the top 25 – but when they were together, it shouldn’t have been framed that Aaron was necessarily the superior player. Matthews, Gehrig, and the guy next on the list are essentially the same.


26. WARREN SPAHN LHP
1942-65
Braves
PW 51.4
WARP3 132.4
ERA+ 118
MVPQ 1947, 53 (best)

-If you wanted to slide Gehrig down to this spot and move Spahn up you could, and that would mean the Braves had a decade of 3 of the 25 greatest players who ever lived. Spahn’s the best lefty ever. He’d be the long man on my all time team.

27. ALEX ROGRIGUEZ (ACTIVE) SS/3B
1994 -
Mariners/Yankees
BFW (2007) 57.4
WARP3 112.1
OPS+ 147
MVPQ 1996 (best) 98, 2000, 07

-So, how high will ARod wind up? By the end of 2010, you’d expect that he’d pull even with that group of 3 bunched up ahead, maybe even nosing them out to be ranked 24th all time. He’ll take out Frank by end of 2011. He turns 37 during the 2012 season, it’s an open question, I’d suggest, if he makes the top 20.

28. WADE BOGGS 3B
1982-99
Red Sox/Yankees
BFW 50.5
WARP3 116.6
OPS+ 130
MVPQ 1985, 86, 87, 88 (best) 89

-Boggs and ARod are still, right now, in the same spot.

29. RANDY JOHNSON (ACTIVE) LHP
1988-
Mariners/Diamondbacks
PW (2007) 49.2
WARP3 120.6
ERA+ 136
MVPQ 1995, 02, 04 (best)

-Johnson’s the second best lefty who ever lived; he’s right there in the same spot with Boggs and ARod, if he can come back for 2010, he’s gonna go past Boggs into 28th. On my all time team, he’d be the closer.

30. LEFTY GROVE LHP
1925-41
Athletics/Red Sox
PW 59.1
WARP3 113.9
ERA+ 148
MVPQ 1931, 36 (best)

- You have to love that Grove and Johnson are in a dead flat tie; sure, it might be better to take one of the lefties in my all time pen and make him a starter – but instead, Grove becomes the left handed set up man.


31. CHRISTY MATHEWSON RHP
1900-16
Giants
PW 56.3
WARP3 107.9
ERA+ 135
MVPQ 1901, 05, 08 (best) 09

-If it’s a 9 man pitching staff (and it would be) on the all time 25 man roster, this is where it ends. So the pen becomes Johnson/Grove/Matty/Spahn. Mathewson is just a tick, like 30% of an MVPQ season, so not much at all, behind Grove/Unit/Boggs/ARod through 2009.


32. TOM SEAVER RHP
1967-86
Mets/Reds
PW49.5
WARP3 117.9
ERA+ 127
MVPQ 1971 (best) 73

-Seaver’s another 30% of an MVPQ behind Mathewson, so only about half a season behind Grove/Johnson – only 1 ½ behind Spahn, which is how close he finishes to being the 6th best pitcher who ever lived.

33. TOM GLAVINE LHP
1987-08
Braves/Mets
PW 41.4
WARP3 125.3
ERA+ 118
MVPQ none

-No, you didn’t know that Tom Glavine was the 11th best pitcher who ever lived. He’s a half MVPQ behind Seaver; the next few guys are in a clump.

34. CAL RIPKEN SS/3B
1981-01
Orioles
BFW 43
WARP3 113.5
OPS+ 112
MVPQ 1983, 84, 91 (best)

-Here’s good to recognize. Ripken was great, obviously, the 34th greatest player who ever lived and the third best shortstop behind Wagner and ARod.

-But now we are 17 MVPQseasons behind Ruth and Bonds.

-Putting it another way, the distance between Bonds/Ruth and Glavine/Ripken/Thomas/Brett is like the distance between Glavine/Ripken/Thomas/Brett and never having played major league baseball. You are as close to Cal Ripken as Cal Ripken is to Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds. Not all Hall of Famers are created equal and we’re still in the top 50 players who ever lived.


35. FRANK THOMAS 1B/DH
1990-2008
White Sox
BFW 50.8
WARP3 105.3
OPS+ 156
MVPQ 1991, 92, 94 (best)


36. GEORGE BRETT 3B
1973-93
Royals
BFW 42.8
WARP3 112.4
OPS+ 135
MVPQ 1976 (best) 79, 80

-As indicated, you can order those last 4 guys, Glavine-Brett basically anyway you like. Brett is one MVPQ season behind Seaver; Brett ranks behind Boggs/Mathews/Schmidt in the all time 3B rankings – he’s 2 MVPQ seasons behind Boggs, 2 ½ behind Mathews, and 4 behind Schmidt.

37. PEDRO MARTINEZ RHP (ACTIVE)
1992-
Expos/Red Sox/Mets
PW 50.5
WARP3 102.8
ERA+ 154
MVPQ 1997, 99, 00 (best)

-Pedro’s in that group of 4 too, just a half MVPQ season behind Glavine, it looks like he winds up somewhere right here.

38. IVAN RODRIGUEZ C (ACTIVE)
1991-
Rangers/Tigers
BFW (2007) 42.7
WARP3 116.9
OPS+ 109
MVPQ none

-The greatest catcher who ever lived is Pudge Rodriguez. Half an MVPQ behind Frank Thomas.



39. JOE DIMAGGIO CF
1936-51
Yankees
BFW 45.8
WARP3 101.2
OPS+ 155
MVPQ 1937, 39, 41 (best) 48

-In a dead heat with Pudge; the Clipper is half an MVPQ season behind Brett. It’s been awhile since there’s been an OF (Robinson) DiMaggio’s 3 ½ MVPQ seasons behind him; it’s clear to me that’s a solid break. If you’re willing to pretend Musial’s a first baseman, that would be a good top ten OF of all time, ending at Frank, with the second ten starting here.

40. JOHNNY BENCH C
1967-83
Reds
BFW 42.4
WARP3 105.9
OPS+ 126
MVPQ 1970, 72 (best) 74

-Essentially tied with Pudge; the third catcher is a little less than 2 MVP seasons behind – so I’m good with calling them the two best catchers who ever lived. If you aren’t taking the walk with me in starting Rodriguez over Bench, I understand. Here’s my all time team:

C Pudge, Bench
1B Musial, Gehrig
2B Lajoie, Hornsby
SS Wagner
3B Schmidt
Uti ARod
LF Bonds Rickey
CF Mays Cobb
RF Ruth Aaron
P Big Train
P Clemens
P Maddux
P Young
P Pete Alexander

P Spahn
P Grove
P Mathewson
P Seaver
Closer Unit



41. JEFF BAGWELL 1B
1991-05
Astros
BFW 53.1
WARP3 97.2
OPS+ 149
MVPQ 1994 (best) 96

-If you were inclined, you could switch Bagwell and Bench for that 40th spot. We’re now 20 MVPQ seasons behind Ruth/Bonds.

42. OZZIE SMITH SS
1978-96
Cardinals
BFW44.8
WARP3 105.5
OPS+ 87
MVPQ 1985

-A little over one MVPQ season behind Ripken for that 3rd SS spot; 3 behind ARod; 10 behind Honus Wagner. Ozzie’s the only minus bat on the list.

43. JOHN SMOLTZ RHP (ACTIVE)
1988-
Braves
PW 39
WARP3 110.3
ERA+ 125
MVPQ 1996

-Smoltz is in a flatfooted tie with Ozzie; enough that since he looks like he might have a drop left in the tank for September of ’09 I maybe should consider flip-flop. If Smoltz can pitch in 2010, he has a chance to crack the top 40. More likely however, getting to #41 would be his top end.

44. ARKY VAUGHAN SS
1932-48
Pirates
BFW 43.3
WARP3 100.3
OPS+ 136
MVPQ 1934, 35 (best) 36


45. JIMMIE FOXX 1B
1925-45
Athletics/Red Sox
BFW 58.3
WARP3 94
OPS+ 163
MVPQ none

-Two more guys in a dead heat; Vaughan’s essentially tied with Ozzie, you can switch them if you like to get more offense. Foxx is 40% of an MVPQ season behind Bagwell.

46. ROBIN YOUNT SS/CF
1974-93
Brewers
BFW40
WARP3 104.5
OPS+ 115
MVPQ 1982 (best) 83


47. CAP ANSON 1B
1871-97
Cubs
BFW 35.4
WARP3 115
OPS+ 141
MVPQ none

-Yount and Anson are also in a tie; if you’re considering Yount a SS; he’s only 1 ½ MVPQ seasons behind Ripken – he’s right in that Ozzie/Vaughan group. Anson’s only 1 ½ behind Thomas; he’s right there at 1B with Bagwell and Foxx.

48. BOBBY GRICH 2B
1970-86
Orioles/Angels
BFW 50.6
WARP3 92.4
OPS+ 125
MVPQ 1973 (best) 75

-Bobby Grich had the same career value as did Robin Yount; he is without question a HOF’er. I don’t know, on this list, where the HOF should end (actually, I do – like about 166 – I want my HOF minimum score to be the equivalent of 10 MVPQ seasons – that’s what I want – and that ends at about #166. That’s where I’d draw my HOF line. Boom) but Grich is nowhere near the back of the line. It’s been a long time since Joe Morgan was revealed as the 4th all time 2B – Grich is well below that level; Grich is 6 MVPQ seasons behind Morgan, and 8 ½ behind the best, Lajoie. So, Grich isn’t at that level, but he’s 1 MVPQ season ahead of the next 2B on the list (secrets) so I’m going to say he’s here – Bobby Grich is the 5th best second baseman who ever lived.

49. KEN GRIFFEY CF (ACTIVE)
1989-
Mariners/Reds
BFW (2007) 47.8
WARP3 94.7
OPS+ 137
MVPQ 1998

-I know you love you some Ken Griffey and you think he and Bonds were basically the same except for the steroids and you’re just wrong. There’s 20 MVPQ seasons of difference between the two of them; there’s no earthly way to make the claim. Griffey’s value is done; he’s half an MVPQ season behind Yount; he’s 1 ½ behind DiMaggio, so I think you really can’t move him any higher than this up the OF list. The next two guys are also active and with more left – so this is the last time Griffey’s going to be in the top 50.

50. ALBERT PUJOLS 1B (ACTIVE)
2001-
Cardinals
BFW (2007) 35.3
WARP3 90.7
OPS+ 172
MVPQ 2003, 04, 07, 08, 09 (best)

51. MARIANO RIVERA RHP (ACTIVE)
1995-
Yankees
PW 43.2
WARP3 98.9
MVPQ 2008
ERA+ 201

-You could order these three guys any way you like; I have a genetic predisposition against one inning pitchers so I want Rivera here, at least for this release of the list – but obviously that 201 ERA+ means that he is the Mac. It’s entirely possible that I should replace Seaver with Rivera on the all time team and just go with an actual closer. Who the hell knows how much he has left; it doesn’t appear to be stopping anytime soon. I’m willing to say by the end of 2010 Rivera is just outside the top 40. He probably goes by Smoltz on the all time pitching list. He maybe goes by Pedro by the end of 2011. He won’t catch Seaver I wouldn’t think. Rivera will retire as one of the 40 greatest players ever.

-Pujols still has some peak left; he’s ten years younger than Rivera and Griffey (probably). Man…okay, by the end of 2010, Pujols goes by Anson and Foxx and catches Bagwell, or maybe is just behind – wedged between Bagwell and Foxx. By the end of 2011 he’s just behind Frank Thomas. By the end of 2012 – now he’s in his decline phase; he’s just outside the top 30 of all time. Where does he finish…maybe top 20. If you have to say, Pujols is going to go past Gehrig to be considered by most the greatest first baseman ever. Mickey Mantle is a reasonable goal.

52. ROGER CONNOR 1B
1880-97
Giants
BFW 43.4
WARP3 102
OPS+ 153
MVPQ 1885


53. PAUL MOLITOR DH/3B
Brewers/Blue Jays/Twins
BFW 36.6
WARP3 108.8
OPS+ 122
MVPQ none


54. GEORGE DAVIS SS
1890-09
Giants/White Sox
BFW 50.7
WARP3 94.4
OPS+ 121
MVPQ none

55. BOB GIBSON RHP
1959-75
Cardinals
PW 45
WARP3 96.1
ERA+ 127
MVPQ 1968

56. STEVE CARLTON LHP
1965-88
Cardinals/Phillies
PW 34
WARP3 103.8
ERA+ 115
MVPQ 1972 (best) 80

57. BARRY LARKIN SS
1986-04
Reds
BFW 41.9
WARP3 98.8
OPS+ 116
MVPQ 1994

58. CARL YASTRZEMSKI LF/1B
1961-83
Red Sox
BFW 42.7
WARP3 94.8
OPS+ 129
MVPQ 1967 (best) 68

-Those 7 guys are all in the same spot – and really they’re in the same spot as those 3 active players who just came before, but without any chance to make it better. Davis and Larkin are about a full MVPQ season behind Ozzie and Vaughan. Yeah, actually Larkin is exactly 1 MVPQ season behind Ozzie. Davis and Connor were briefly teammates for the pre turn of the century Giants. Molitor’s half an MVPQ season behind his longtime teammate Yount. Look at Gibson and Carlton sitting there back to back like a ferocious 1-2 in a pitching rotation. They’re both a little less than 1 MVPQ season behind Smoltz – a little more than 2 MVPQ behind Glavine. Yaz is 1 MVPQ season behind Foxx; 8 MVPQ seasons behind Ted Williams.

59. GARY CARTER C
1974-92
Expos/Mets
BFW 38.8
WARP3 98.9
OPS+ 115
MVPQ 1982

-No, it’s not just because Gary Carter once said about me “there’s someone who knows a lot about baseball” – No! It’s strictly by analysis of the numbers – the Kid is the 3rd greatest catcher who ever lived. He’s solidly behind Bench, almost 2 MVPQ seasons – and just barely ahead of the 4th catcher, ½ an MVPQ over…(secrets). I am totally good with this.


60. MANNY RAMIREZ RF/LF (ACTIVE)
93-
Indians/Red Sox
BFW (2007) 40.5
WARP3 94.9
OPS+ 155
MVPQ none

-Manny’s half an MVPQ behind Yaz, speaking of Red Sox LF. By the end of 2010 he could be in that group that’s just outside the top 50. So, getting by Griffey eventually is a reasonable goal; he’s unlikely to catch DiMaggio and make the top 40.

61. CARL HUBBELL RHP
1928-43
Giants
PW40.2
WARP3 90.2
ERA+ 130
MVPQ 1932, 33 (best) 36

62. LOU WHITAKER 2B
1977-95
Tigers
BFW 35.2
WARP3 103.3
OPS+ 116
MVPQ none

-Your 6th best 2B ever. Lou Whitaker.

63. ROBIN ROBERTS RHP
1948-66
Phillies/Orioles
PW 30.3
WARP3 102.1
ERA+ 113
MVPQ 1953 (best) 54

64. KID NICHOLS RHP
1890-06
Braves
PW 56.2
WARP3 82.1
ERA+ 140
MVPQ none

65. PHIL NIEKRO RHP
1964-87
Braves
PW 29.1
WARP3 109
MVPQ none
ERA+ 115



66. BILL DAHLEN SS
1891-11
Cubs/Dodgers/Giants
BFW 48.5
WARP3 88.5
OPS+ 109
MVPQ none


67. TONY GWYNN RF
1982-01
Padres
BFW 38.6
WARP3 97.6
OPS+ 132
MVPQ none

68. DAN BROUTHERS 1B
Bisons/Wolverines
1879-94
BFW 43.2
WARP3 92.8
OPS+ 170
MVPQ none

69. GABBY HARTNETT C
1922-41
Cubs
BFW 44.4
WARP3 91.2
OPS+ 126
MVPQ none


70. REGGIE JACKSON RF/DH
1967-87
Athletics/Yankees/Angels
BFW 38.7
WARP3 93.5
OPS+ 139
MVPQ 1969

-An expanse of only ½ an MVPQ season covers Gary Carter to Reggie.

So, what do we have – as mentioned, there’s Whitaker, 1 MVPQ behind Grich, making him the 6th best second baseman ever. We get all the way to Niekro, the 20th best pitcher who ever lived – the distance between Niekro and the tenth best pitcher, Seaver, is 3 ½ MVPQ seasons. Reggie and Gwynn are in the same spot – both 1 MVPQ season behind Molitor. Dahlen’s the 9th SS on the list, half an MVPQ behind Larkin and just a little further than that behind the other pre 20th c SS Davis. And like Dahlen following Davis, Dan Brouthers and his 170 OPS+ follows Roger Connor on the 1B list. Look at all the handlebar moustaches from the Gilded Age batsmen!

71. RAFAEL PALMEIRO 1B
1986-05
Rangers/Orioles
BFW 35.8
WARP3 96.1
OPS+ 132
MVPQ 1993

72. EDDIE MURRAY 1B
1977-97
Orioles/Dodgers
BFW 35.1
WARP3 96.4
OPS+ 129
MVPQ 1990

-They had the same career. You can switch them if this ordering offends.

73. AL KALINE RF
1953-74
Tigers
BFW 43.8
WARP3 89.5
OPS+ 134
MVPQ none

74. EDGAR MARTINEZ DH
1987-04
Mariners
BFW 44.6
WARP3 88.2
OPS+ 147
MVPQ none


75. TIM RAINES LF
1979-02
Expos/White Sox
BFW 38.2
WARP3 94.2
OPS+ 123
MVPQ none

-Kaline and Raines are less than half an MVPQ behind Gwynn and Reggie.

76. MIKE MUSSINA RHP
1991-08
Orioles/Yankees
PW 33.4
WARP3 98.9
ERA+ 123
MVPQ none

-Mussina’s only 1 MVPQ season behind Gibson and Lefty.

77. CARLTON FISK C
1969-93
Red Sox/White Sox
BFW 38.8
WARP3 93.4
OPS+ 117
MVPQ none

-The fifth best catcher in history, just a tick behind Hartnett, not quite a full MVPQ behind Carter; the next two catchers coming from behind are even closer to Fisk than that.

78. LUKE APPLING SS
1930-50
White Sox
BFW 42.4
WARP3 86.7
OPS+ 112
MVPQ 1943

79. PETE ROSE Uti
1963-86
Reds/Phillies
BFW 24.4
WARP3 106.4
OPS+ 118
MVPQ none

-Another ½ of an MVP season and we get the rest of the 70s. Rose is a good marker here – he’s one MVPQ season behind Yaz. 2 behind Yount. Almost 3 behind Bench. 8 behind Morgan. Ranking the Red Machine:

1. Morgan
2. Bench
3. Rose

Is easy.

80. JIM THOME (ACTIVE) 1B/DH
1991-
Indians/Phillies/White Sox
BFW (2007) 38.7
WARP3 88.8
OPS+ 147
MVPQ none

-Don’t look now but Jim Thome’s still hitting the ball. By the end of 2010, he might well catch Palmeiro and Murray. He might finish behind Roger Connor as the ninth best 1B who ever lived. Jim Thome’s a HOF’er.

81. SCOTT ROLEN 3B (ACTIVE)
1996-
Phillies/Cardinals
BFW(2007)38.1
WARP3 86.4
OPS+ 124
MVPQ 2004

-Rolen doesn’t have as much left, you wouldn’t think. But he goes past Rose by end of 2010. Scott Rolen’s going to finish his career as the 5th best third baseman of all time (momentarily). He’s 4 MVPQ seasons behind George Brett. Scott Rolen is a HOF’er.


82. ED DELAHANTY LF
1888-03
Phillies
BFW42.8
WARP3 84.7
OPS+ 152
MVPQ 1893

83. YOGI BERRA C
1946-65
Yankees
BFW40.2
WARP3 90.1
OPS+ 125
MVPQ none

- 84. BILL DICKEY C
1928-46
Yankees
BFW 38.5
WARP3 88.5
OPS+ 127
MVPQ 1937

-One of my favorite quirks about this version of the list is Berra and Dickey come out back to back with statistically the same career. They’re both half an MVPQ season behind Hartnett – 3 MVPQ seasons behind Pudge and Bench.

85. GARY SHEFFIELD (ACTIVE)
1988-
Marlins/Dodgers
BFW (2007) 44
WARP3 82.6
OPS+ 140
MVPQ none

-Maybe Sheff catches Rose. Maybe.

86. CHARLIE GEHRINGER 2B
1924-42
Tigers
BFW45.1
WARP3 84.7
OPS+ 124
MVPQ none

-Tigers, Tigers, Tigers. Gehringer is the 7th best 2B ever, one MVPQ season behind Whitaker, the 6th best.

87. LOU BOUDREAU SS
1938-52
Indians
BFW 43.6
WARP3 82.6
OPS+ 120
-Less than a half MVPQ behind Appling.

88. HAL NEWHOUSER LHP
1939-55
Tigers
PW37.2
WARP3 81.7
ERA+ 130
MVPQ 1944, 45 (best) 46


89. ALAN TRAMMELL SS
1977-96
Tigers
BFW 31.1
WARP3 93.6
OPS+ 110
MVPQ 1984

-Enough with the Tigers already! Newhouser’s the 22nd pitcher; one MVPQ behind Niekro for that 20th spot. Trammell’s the 12 SS, just 1 MVPQ behind his double play partner Whitaker despite being 27 spots behind, which again indicates how close everyone is at this point in the list.

90. CHIPPER JONES 3B (ACTIVE)
1993-
Braves
BFW (2007) 32
WARP3 87.9
OPS+ 144
MVPQ none

-Chipper turns 38 next year; he can’t stay healthy but other than that, dude can still play baseball, his best ever year with the bat was 2008. By end of 2010 he’s…Pete Rose. Chipper and Scott Rolen could be fighting for that 5th all time 3rd base spot.

91. ROBIN VENTURA 3B
1989-04
White Sox/Mets
BFW24.5
WARP3 96.6
OPS+ 114
MVPQ 1991, 92 (best)

-If Chipper died today, I’d probably rank him below Ventura – I’m assuming that won’t happen and slotting him here. I get enjoyment ranking Ventura ahead of Nolan Ryan.

92. CURT SCHILLING RHP
1988-07
Phillies/Diamonbacks/Red Sox
PW 32.1
WARP3 94.2
MVPQ none
ERA+ 127

5 ½ MVP quality seasons behind the Unit; Schilling’s the 23rd best pitcher ever and Johnson’s the 7th – but the distance between them is about the difference between Ruth, the best player ever – and Mays, the third best player ever.

93. ROD CAREW 2B/1B
1967-85
Twins/Angels
BFW 39.5
WARP3 85.8
OPS+ 131
MVPQ none

-Just half an MVPQ between Sheff and Carew. Carew, at 93 overall is only 1 MVPq season behind Reggie at 70 overall. Recall, that’s the same difference between Ruth and Bonds – and much less than the difference between Bonds and Mays. If we slot Carew at 2b, he’s 8th best, half an MVPQ behind Gehringer.

94. GAYLORD PERRY RHP
1962-83
Giants/Indians/Rangers
PW32.9
WARP3 91.2
ERA+ 117
MVPQ 1972

-Gaylord Perry cheated. Cheated his whole career. Defined his whole career based on his cheating. The full totality of his legend is due to cheating. He’s in the HOF without a whisper of protest.

95. PAUL WANER RF
1926-45
Pirates
BFW 33.8
WARP3 90
OPS+ 134
MVPQ none

96. TED LYONS RHP
1923-46
White Sox
PW 33.5
WARP3 90.2
ERA+ 118
MVPQ none

-If Musial’s a first baseman, that would make Waner the 20th OF – Lyons is the 25th pitcher regardless of where we put Stan. 4 more to make the top 100 – who will be on the list? Who? Who?

97. RON SANTO 3B
1960-74
Cubs
BFW 44.7
WARP3 72.7
OPS+ 125
MVPQ 1964, 66 (best)

-Santo should be in the HOF, yes. But he wasn’t better than Ventura, and he ain’t getting documentaries trumpeting his candidacy.

98. DENNIS ECKERSLEY RHP
1975-98
Red Sox/Athletics
PW30.5
WARP3 92.8
ERA+ 116
MVPQ none

99. BOB FELLER RHP
1936-56
Indians
PW 31.6
WARP3 82.2
ERA+ 122
MVPQ 1939 (best) 40, 46

-There’s only half an MVPQ season between Newhouser (22nd pitcher) and Feller (27th) – and there’s just no daylight at all among Perry/Lyons/Eck/Feller.

100. CRAIG BIGGIO 2B/C
1988-07
Astros
BFW 28.9
WARP3 90
OPS+ 111
MVPQ 1997

-And that’s your 100 best MLB players who ever lived. 101/102 are indistinguishable, you could move either of them here if you like. 11 MVPQ seasons separate Biggio, who should be viewed as a HOF’er, and Lajoie. Not all Hall of Famers are created equal.

101. JOE CRONIN SS
1926-45
Senators/Red Sox
BFW 39.6
WARP3 78.7
OPS+ 119
MVPQ 1930


102. BERT BLYLEVEN RHP
1970-92
Twins/Indians
PW 31.8
WARP3 89.4
ERA+ 118
MVPQ none

103. FRANKIE FRISCH 2B
1919-37
Giants/Cardinals
BFW 37.3
WARP3 83.3
OPS+ 111
MVPQ none

-Frisch is one MVPQ season behind Ed Delahanty (#82). Two behind Gary Carter (#59). Three behind Cap Anson (#47). Four behind Pudge (#38). Six behind Randy Johnson (#29). Seven behind Eddie Mathews (#25). Eleven behind Greg Maddux (#14). Fourteen behind Ty Cobb (#5). Seventeen behind Willie Mays (#3). And a little over 24 MVPQ seasons behind Ruth. Or – exactly 2 Frankie Frisch’s behind Ruth. 3 Frankie Frisch’s = Babe Ruth. And Frisch is the 103rd best player who ever lived.

104. ROBBY ALOMAR 2B
1988-04
Blue Jays/Orioles/Indians
BFW35.8
WARP3 81
OPS+ 116
MVPQ 1999

105. MIKE PIAZZA C
1992-07
Dodgers/Mets
BFW42.3
WARP3 77.4
OPS+ 142
MVPQ none

106. KEVIN BROWN RHP
1986-05
Rangers/Dodgers
PW 33.7
WARP3 82.1
ERA+ 127
MVPQ 1996


107. JEFF KENT 2B
1992-08
Mets/Giants/Dodgers
BFW 38.6
WARP3 80
OPS+ 123
MVPQ none


108. ROBERTO CLEMENTE RF
1955-72
Pirates
BFW 35.4
WARP3 82.7
OPS+ 130
MVPQ none

109. JIM EDMONDS CF
1993-08
Angels/Cardinals
BFW (2007) 35.1
WARP3 82.5
OPS+ 132
MVPQ none

110. JOHNNY MIZE 1B
Cardinals/Giants/Yankees
BFW 37.7
WARP3 80.2
OPS+ 158
MVPQ none


111. RED RUFFING RHP
1924-47
Red Sox/Yankees
PW31.4
WARP3 86
MVPQ none
ERA+ 109


112. FERGUSON JENKINS RHP
1965-83
Cubs/Rangers
PW 30.4
WARP3 86.6
MVPQ none
ERA+ 115


113. KING KELLY C/RF
1878-93
Cubs/Braves
BFW28.9
WARP3 85.1
OPS+ 138
MVPQ 1886

114. ED WALSH RHP
1904-17
White Sox
PW 37.6
WARP3 69.6
ERA+ 146
MVPQ 1908, 1910 (best), 1912


115. BID MCPHEE 2B
1882-99
Reds
BFW 38.3
WARP3 77.7
OPS+ 106
MVPQ none


116. RYNE SANDBERG 2B
1981-97
Cubs
BFW 36.8
WARP3 75.8
OPS+ 114
MVPQ 1984

117. DAVE WINFIELD RF
1973-95
Padres/Yankees
BFW 30.1
WARP3 85.2
OPS+ 130
MVPQ none

118. MARK MCGWIRE 1B
1987-01
Athletics/Cardinals
BFW 35.3
WARP3 79.9
OPS+ 162
MVPQ none

-From Frisch at #103 all the way down to fellow Cardinal McGwire at #118 is only a distance of half an MVPQ season.

119. EARLY WYNN RHP
1939-63
Senators/Indians/White Sox
PW19.5
WARP3 85.1
MVPQ none
ERA+ 107


120. EDDIE PLANK LHP
1901-17
Athletics
PW30.3
ERA+ 3.73
WARP3 83.2
ERA+ 122
MVPQ none

121. WILLIE MCCOVEY 1B
1959-80
Giants
BFW 39.3
WARP3 74
OPS+ 147
MVPQ none


122. DON DRYSDALE RHP
1956-69
PW32.4
WARP3 77.3
MVPQ 1964
ERA+ 121

123. VLADIMIR GUERRERO (ACTIVE) RF
1996-
Expos/Angels
BFW (2007) 38.1
WARP3 71
MVPQ none
OPS+ 146

-Vlad’s in the decline phase; he should catch Winfield by end of 2010. The other Expo – Raines, is a good target to reach by career’s end.

124. BOBBY DOERR 2B
1937-51
Red Sox
BFW 40.3
WARP3 72.2
OPS+ 115
MVPQ none

125. BUCK EWING C
1880-97
Giants
BFW29.1
WARP3 83.4
OPS+ 129
MVPQ none



126. NOLAN RYAN RHP
1966-93
PW 22.2
WARP3 89.9
MVPQ none
ERA+ 111

127. WILLIE STARGELL LF/1B
1962-82
Pirates
BFW 29.5
WARP3 82.2
OPS+ 147
MVPQ none

128. TREVOR HOFFMAN RHP (ACTIVE)
1993 –
Padres
PW (2007) 27.9
WARP3 81.6
ERA+ 147
MVPQ none

-If Hoffman can get a 2010 out of his arm that approximates his 2009, he’s going to slide past Ryan and Drysdale.

129. AMOS RUSIE RHP
1889-01
Giants
PW36.7
WARP3 68.5
MVPQ 1893, 94 (best)
ERA+ 129


130. JACK GLASSCOCK SS
Blues/Hoosiers/Giants
1879-95
BFW 36.6
WARP3 74.1
MVPQ none
OPS+ 112

-The unfortunately named Glasscock was 8 years old when the Civil War ended.

That means he remembered the Civil War; it existed in his memory, and since he was born in West Virginia, it’s possible that he had family members on both sides. Glasscock played on the 1894 Pirates with Jake Beckley. Beckley played on the 1906 Cardinals with Babe Adams. Adams played on the 1926 Pirates with Joe Cronin. Joe Cronin played on the 1942 Red Sox with Ted Williams. Williams played on the 1958 Red Sox with Jimmy Piersall. Piersall played on the 1967 Angels with Jim Fregosi. Fregosi played on the 1978 Pirates with Don Robinson. Robinson played on the 1992 Phillies with Curt Schilling. Schilling played on the 2007 Red Sox with two dozen guys still in the big leagues.

And that’s what’s fun.

131. JIM O' ROURKE LF
1872-04
Braves/Giants
BFW 16.1
WARP3 94.4
OPS+ 133
MVPQ none

132. SAM CRAWFORD CF
1899-17
Tigers
BFW 29.8
WARP3 80.6
OPS+ 144
MVPQ none

133. HOYT WILHELM RHP
Giants/Orioles/White Sox
1952-72
PW37.1
WARP3 73.3
ERA+ 146
MVPQ none

134. JOHN CLARKSON
1882-94
Cubs/Braves
PW 42.5
WARP3 58.5
ERA+ 134
MVPq 1885, 87, 89 (best)

135. WHITEY FORD LHP
1950-67
Yankees
PW37.2
WARP3 72.4
MVPQ none
ERA+ 133

-From Early Wynn at #119 to Ford – only ½ an MVPQ season of difference. The next 30 spots have 1 MVPQ season of difference, from Vance down to #166. I mention this as #166 is the player at which I’d stop voting for them for HOF. Everyone above the line gets my vote, below the line – nope.

136. DAZZY VANCE RHP
1915-35
Dodgers
PW29.2
WARP3 74.3
MVPQ 1924 (best) 28
ERA+ 125

137. BILLY HERMAN 2B
1931-47
Cubs/Dodgers
BFW 31.6
WARP3 77.8
OPS+ 112
MVPQ none

-Full name: William Jennings Bryan Herman. You’re welcome.

138. DICK ALLEN 3B/1B
1963-77
Phillies
BFW 39
WARP3 70
OPS+ 156
MVPQ 1964

139. FRED CLARKE LF
1894-15
Pirates
BFW 27.9
WARP3 81.1
OPS+ 132
MVPQ none


140. JACKIE ROBINSON 2B
1947-56
Dodgers
BFW 34.3
WARP3 67.9
OPS+ 132
MVPQ 1949, 51 (best)

141. BOBBY ABREU (ACTIVE) RF
1996-
Phillies
BFW30.1
WARP3 76.6
OPS+ 132
MVPQ none

-By end of 2010 he could wind up at the top of this section, right with O’Rourke and Crawford.

142. BOBBY WALLACE SS
1894-18
Browns
BFW35.2
OPS+ 105
WARP3 72.8
MVPQ none

143. JOHN OLERUD 1B
1989-05
Blue Jays/Mariners
BFW24.5
WARP3 80
OPS+ 128
MVPQ 1993


144. WILLIE RANDOLPH 2B
1975-92
Yankees
BFW 36
WARP3 70.7
OPS+ 104
MVPQ none

145. JUAN MARICHAL RHP
1960-75
Giants
PW 27.7
WARP3 72.9
MVPQ 1965, 66 (best)
ERA+ 123

146. BERNIE WILLIAMS CF
1991-06
Yankees
BFW24.6
WARP3 78.9
ERA+ 125
MVPQ 1995

147. JOE TORRE C
1960-77
Braves/Cardinals
BFW22.6
WARP3 80.4
OPS+ 128
MVPQ 1966


148. JIM PALMER RHP
1965-84
Orioles
PW35
WARP3 70.8
MVPQ none
ERA+ 126

149. ERNIE BANKS SS/1B
1953-71
Cubs
BFW 27.8
WARP3 74.8
OPS+ 122
MVPQ 1959

150. WES FERRELL RHP
1927-41
Indians/Red Sox
WARP3 68.6
PW 31.1
ERA+ 116
MVPQ 1930, 31, 35 (best)

151. BILLY HAMILTON CF
1888-01
Phillies/Braves
BFW27.2
OPS+ 141
WARP3 78.3
MVPQ none


152. DEREK JETER SS (ACTIVE)
1995 -
Yankees
BFW (2007) 17.3
OPS+ 121
WARP3 81.4
MVPQ none

-Jeter breaks the top 150 by end of 2010, maybe somewhere between Banks and Wallace. Sandberg might be where Jeter finishes up.

153. BRET SABERHAGEN RHP
1984-01
Royals/Mets/Red Sox
PW27.9
WARP3 74.3
MVPQ 1989
ERA+ 126

154. MICKEY COCHRANE C
1925-37
Athletics/Tigers
BFW 34.7
WARP3 70.1
OPS+ 128
MVPQ none

155. STAN HACK 3B
1932-47
Cubs
BFW29.4
WARP3 74.4
OPS+ 119
MVPQ none


156. DARRELL EVANS 3B/1B
1969-89
Braves/Giants/Tigers
BFW 41.4
WARP3 62.1
OPS+ 119
MVPQ none



157. HOME RUN BAKER 3B
1908-22
Athletics/Yankees
BFW33.7
WARP3 69.6
OPS+ 135
MVPQ none

158. HARMON KILLEBREW 1B
1954-75
Senators/Twins
BFW32
WARP3 70.9
OPS+ 143
MVPQ none


159. KEITH HERNANDEZ 1B
1974-90
Cardinals/Mets
BFW33.5
WARP3 69.1
OPS+ 128
MVPQ none

160. BUCKY WALTERS RHP
1934-50
Reds
PW 26.7
WARP3 72.2
ERA+ 115
MVPQ 1939


161. ELMER FLICK RF
1898-10
Phillies/Indians
BFW 29.7
OPS+ 149
WARP3 72.8
MVPQ none

162. GRAIG NETTLES 3B
1967-88
Yankees
BFW21.2
OPS+ 110
WARP3 80.2
MVPQ none

163. JESSE BURKETT LF
Spiders/Cardinals
1890-05
BFW27.9
WARP3 73.3
OPS+ 140
MVPQ none

164. HARRY HEILMANN RF
1914-32
Tigers
BFW33.2
WARP3 67.7
OPS+ 148
MVPQ none

165. JORGE POSADA C
1995-
Yankees
BFW (2007) 27
WARP3 68.8
OPS+ 124
MVPQ none

-Posada probably doesn’t catch Torre or Cochrane by end of 2010, he might not finish up in top 150.

166. DON SUTTON RHP
1966-88
Dodgers
PW17.5
WARP3 83.7
MVPQ none

-That’s where I’d cut off the HOF. Right there. Don Sutton would be the line of demarcation – better career than Sutton – in, not as good – out. Everyone left has only half an MVPQ spread among them.

167. BOB JOHNSON LF
1933-45
Athletics
BFW 35.7
WARP3 63.7
OPS+ 138
MVPQ none

168. HEINE GROH 3B
1912-27
Reds/Giants
BFW 30.4
WARP3 68.8
OPS+ 118
MVPQ none

169. RICHIE ASHBURN CF
1948-62
Phillies
BFW22.8
WARP3 76.2
OPS+ 111
MVPQ none

170. BOB LEMON RHP
1946-58
Indians
PW 34.2
WARP3 64.7
ERA+ 119
MVPQ none

171. WILL CLARK 1B
1986-00
Giants/Rangers
BFW24.4
WARP3 74.4
OPS+ 137
MVPQ none

172. JOE JACKSON LF/RF
1908-20
Indians/White Sox
OPS+ 170
BFW 38.3
WARP3 60.1
MVPQ none

173. JOE SEWELL SS
Indians
BFW 35.2
WARP3 62.7
OPS+ 109
MVPQ none


174. JIMMY WYNN CF
1963-77
Astros
BFW 29.6
WARP3 68.2
MVPQ none
OPS+ 128

175. BILLY PIERCE LHP
1945-64
White Sox
ERA+ 119
PW 25.6
WARP3 72.1


176. DUTCH LEONARD RHP
1933-53
Dodgers/Senators/Cubs
ERA+ 119
PW 22.2
WARP3 75.5
MVPQ none


177. SAMMY SOSA RF
1989-07
Cubs
BFW25
WARP3 69.6
OPS+ 128
MVPQ 2001

178. CARLOS BELTRAN CF (ACTIVE)
1998 -
Royals/Mets
OPS+ 119
BFW (2007) 19.1
WARP3 68.9
MVPQ 2006 (best) 2008

-By end of 2010 he’s in the HOF or knocking on the door.

179. LARRY WALKER RF
1989-05
Expos/Rockies
BFW 32.8
WARP3 63.8
OPS+ 140
MVPQ none

180. DIZZY TROUT RHP
1939-57
Tigers
WARP3 66.7
PW 29.7
MVPQ 1944
ERA+ 124

181. JOE GORDON 2B
1938-50
Yankees/Indians
BFW 28.8
WARP 3 67.4
MVPQ none
OPS+ 120


182. RICK REUSCHEL RHP
1972-91
Cubs/Pirates/Giants
PW 23.2
WARP3 75.8
MVPQ none
ERA+ 114



183. MIGUEL TEJADA SS (ACTIVE)
1997-
Athletics/Orioles
OPS+ 111
WARP3 61.5
BFW (2007) 27.8
MVPQ 2004

184. TODD HELTON 1B (ACTIVE)
1997-
Rockies
WARP3 58.8
OPS+ 141
BFW 33.5
MVPQ none

-Both Tejada and Helton will probably still be short of the HOF line by end of 2010, but punch through by end of 2011 if they can hold on.

185. CESAR CEDENO CF
1970-86
Astros/Reds
WARP3 70.6
MVPQ 1972
BFW 22.3
OPS+ 123

186. STAN COVELESKI RHP
1912-28
Indians
WARP3 69.7
PW 26
ERA+ 127
MVPQ none

187. DWIGHT EVANS RF
1972-91
Red Sox
BFW 24.7
WARP3 70.5
MVPQ none

188. REGGIE SMITH CF/RF
1966-82
Red Sox/Dodgers
BFW 31.5
WARP3 63.5
MVPQ none

189. SAM THOMPSON RF
1885-06
Wolverines/Phillies
OPS+ 146
WARP3 65.5
BFW 29.5
MVPQ none

190. ANDRUW JONES CF (ACTIVE)
1996-
Braves
Ops+ 111
Warp3 73.9
BFW (2007) 21.6
MVPQ none

-Jones isn’t going to get to the HOF line.

191. HARDY RICHARDSON 2B
1879-92
Bisons/Wolverines
WARP3 65.2
MVPQ 1886
BFW 26.7
OPS+ 130


192. AL SIMMONS LF/CF
1924-44
Athletics/White Sox
BFW 23
WARP3 71.4
MVPQ none
OPS+ 132

193. BUDDY BELL 3B
1972-89
Indians/Tigers/Reds
BFW28
WARP3 63.2
MVPQ 1982
OPS+ 109

194. CHARLIE BENNETT C
1878-93
Wolverines/Beaneaters
OPS+118
WARP3 70.2
BFW 23.9
MVPQ none

195. OREL HERSHISER RHP
1983-00
Dodgers
ERA+ 112
WARP3 71.8
MVPQ 1988
PW 19.4


196. EPPA RIXEY LHP
1912-33
Phillies/Reds
ERA+ 115
WARP3 69.8
PW 24.2
MVPQ none

197. JACK CLARK RF
1975-92
Giants
BFW 29.6
WARP3 64.2
OPS+ 137
MVPQ none


198. JOSE CRUZ LF
1970-88
Cardinals/Astros
BFW 20.5
OPS+ 120
WARP3 72.7
MVPQ none

199. LANCE PARRISH C
1977-95
Tigers/Angels
BFW 22.3
OPS+ 106
WARP3 67.9
MVPQ none

200. BRIAN GILES (Active) LF/RF
1995 -
Pirates/Padres
BFW 29.2
WARP3 61.3
OPS+ 136
MVPQ none

I've already made one change, but really let's see if I can't leave this alone until the end of 2010.  There's a world outside this list, contrary to popular opinion.