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All Time Dodgers Roster

Sunday, February 11, 2024

 Through 2023.


 Largely, this is a focus on career regular season value, due to time considerations.  I'm doing this with the idea of a possible tournament, so I'm not just putting together the best 26 players, I'm trying to construct a roster.  Every spot has a backup, 16 position players/10 pitchers.  Making platoon considerations, each team has 2 dedicated closers, each bullpen has a lefty.  


Starting Lineup v RH
C R.Campanella
1B D.Camilli (LH)
2B J.Robinson
SS PW Reese
3B R.Cey
LF Z.Wheat (LH)
CF D.Snider (LH)
RF D.Walker (LH)
DH M.Piazza

Starting Lineup v LH
C R.Campanella
1B G.Hodges
2B J.Robinson
SS PW Reese
3B R.Cey
LF P.Guerrero
CF D.Snider (LH)
RF C.Furillo
DH M.Piazza

Reserves
1B/3B S.Garvey
2B/3B/LF J.Gilliam
SS M.Wills
CF W.Davis

Dodgers have a deep bench, so some 30 WAR position players aren't here - Justin Turner is top of the list; with Garvey/Gilliam and Jackie able to play third base, he gets left off.  Lopes/Russell/Mike Griffin, all left off.

Starting Pitchers
C.Kershaw (LH)
D.Drysdale
D.Vance
D.Sutton 
S.Koufax (LH)

Bullpen
K.Jansen
E.Gagne
N.Rucker (LH)
O.Hershiser
F.Valenzuela (LH

8 top Fangraphs WAR and the two saves leaders.  




All Time Rockies Roster

Saturday, February 10, 2024

 Through 2023.


 Largely, this is a focus on career regular season value, due to time considerations.  I'm doing this with the idea of a possible tournament, so I'm not just putting together the best 26 players, I'm trying to construct a roster.  Every spot has a backup, 16 position players/10 pitchers.  Making platoon considerations, each team has 2 dedicated closers, each bullpen has a lefty.  



Starting Lineup v RH
C J.Reed (LH)
1B T.Helton (LH)
2B R.McMahon (LH)
SS T.Tulowitzki
3B N.Arenado
LF C.Gonzalez (LH)
CF C.Blackmon (LH)
RF L.Walker (LH)
DH M.Holliday

Starting Lineup v LH
C C.Iannetta
1B T.Helton (LH)
2B DJ LeMahieu 
SS T.Tulowitzki
3B N.Arenado
LF M.Holliday
CF E.Burks
RF L.Walker (LH)
DH A.Galarraga

Reserves
SS T.Story
3B/SS V.Castilla
CF D.Fowler (SH)

The 14 highest b-ref WAR position players + 2 catchers.

Starting Pitchers
U.Jimenez
A.Cook
G.Marquez
K.Freeland (LH)
J. De La Rosa (LH)

Bullpen
B.Fuentes (LH)
S.Reed
J.Gray
P.Astacio
J.Chacin

It's the top 9 by B-Ref WAR (including Reed, a short reliever, who soaks up one of the closer spots) and Fuentes, the franchise save leader.  



All Time Reds Roster

Friday, February 9, 2024

Through 2023.


 Largely, this is a focus on career regular season value, due to time considerations.  I'm doing this with the idea of a possible tournament, so I'm not just putting together the best 26 players, I'm trying to construct a roster.  Every spot has a backup, 16 position players/10 pitchers.  Making platoon considerations, each team has 2 dedicated closers, each bullpen has a lefty.  



Starting Lineup v RH
C J.Bench
1B J.Votto (LH)
2B J.Morgan (LH)
SS B.Larkin
3B T.Perez
LF F.Robinson
CF V.Pinson (LH)
RF P.Rose (SH)
DH E.Roush (LH)

Starting Lineup v LH
C J.Bench
1B J.Votto (LH)
2B J.Morgan (LH)
SS B.Larkin
3B T.Perez
LF F.Robinson
CF E.Davis
RF G.Foster
DH P.Rose (SH)

Reserves
C E.Lombardi
2B B.McPhee 
2B L.Frey (L)
SS D.Concepcion
3B/2B H.Groh

Its the 15 top b-ref WAR Reds and the backup catcher, Frey gets the slot that Reilly or Kluszewski might get as the last man on the roster.  If a player averages 30 WAR when combining b-ref and Fangraphs, there's a presumption that they belong on the roster.

Starting Pitchers
N.Hahn (L)
E.Rixey (L)
D.Luque
P.Derringer
J.Rijo

Relief Pitchers
A.Chapman (L)
J.Franco (L)
J.Maloney
F.Dwyer
B.Walters

The top half dozen B-Ref WAR pitchers are here; Derringer's the top in Fangraphs WAR, Maloney gets the last spot over Mullane. Chapman and Franco are 3-4 in Reds saves, they have solid ERA+ advantages over Graves; Franco/Cordero is essentially a tie and the lefty gets the slot.

All Time Cubs Roster

Thursday, February 8, 2024

 Through 2023.


 Largely, this is a focus on career regular season value, due to time considerations.  I'm doing this with the idea of a possible tournament, so I'm not just putting together the best 26 players, I'm trying to construct a roster.  Every spot has a backup, 16 position players/10 pitchers.  Making platoon considerations, each team has 2 dedicated closers, each bullpen has a lefty.  



Starting Lineup v RH
C G.Hartnett 
1B C.Anson
2B R.Sandberg
SS E.Banks
3B S.Hack (LH)
LF B.Williams (LH)
CF G.Gore (LH)
RF S.Sosa
DH M.Grace (LH)

Starting Lineup v. LH
C G.Hartnett
1B C.Anson
2B R.Sandberg
SS E.Banks
3B R.Santo
LF B.Williams (LH)
CF J.Ryan
RF S.Sosa
DH F.Chance

Reserves
2B J.Evers (LH)
2B B.Herman (RH)
SS J.Tinker
RF B.Nicholson (LH)

Who is the backup catcher?  It's Chance, who caught a little less than 200 games with the Cubs; doing that allows for Billy Herman to make this roster, which is why there are 3 guys who can only play second base on this team - but Herman's got 40 career Cub WAR and given that the other best option is King Kelly as the backup catcher, this configuration best captures Cub history.  There's a lot of 30+ WAR Cubs not here: Anthony Rizzo, Phil Cavaretta, Ed Williamson, Bill Dahlen, Hack Wilson.  Wilson loses out to Gore to add Gore's left handed bat. 

Starting Pitchers
F.Jenkins
R.Reuschel
M.Brown
B.Hutchison
G.Alexander

Bullpen
L.Smith
B.Sutter
C.Griffith
H.Vaughn (L)
J.Clarkson

Top four starters have 40+ Cub WAR in both b-ref and fangraphs; Smith and Sutter lead in saves and Vaughn is the top lefty. That left multiple guys for those last 3 spots, just left off are Maddux, Charlie Root, Bob Rush, Carlos Zambrano, Claude Passeau.

Super Bowl 58 Prediction

Wednesday, February 7, 2024




I picked the 49ers before the season and before the playoffs.  The 49ers, by every advanced metric, were the better team this season.  I am a 49er fan and so even if none of that was true, I would still pick the 49ers in this spot - it's the Super Bowl, I'm picking my team - however, I pick this game every year and unless a significant countervailing issue makes the season totals not the single best predictor (variance is more important than everything, "any given Sunday" and whatnot; you throw the Bears into this game and 4 times out of 10 they win, don't overrate ability to predict the outcome of an NFL game), I pick the team who had the best season.  No - a couple of playoff games are not a significant countervailing issue - if Mahomes missed half the season or Trent Williams wasn't playing Sunday, that's what would be needed to buck the season long results.  

The 49ers run the ball - the Chiefs don't stop the run.

The Chiefs one skill position weapon is the tight end - the 49ers shut down tight ends.  

The Chiefs have an offensive tackle problem and Nick Bosa puts more pressure on the QB than almost any other pass rusher in football.  

If you're picking the Chiefs, and a lot of folks are, it rests on the distance between the quarterbacks and thats a reasonable call.  A different way to pick this game would just be to pick the better QB given the wildly outsized impact on winning that position has - Mahomes is a two time champion headed to the Hall of Fame and Purdy was the last pick in the draft and there were advanced analysts calling for him to be replaced by Sam Darnold before the 4th quarter of the divisional playoff win over the Packers.  

If I had Mahomes on my side, I'd pick him too.  

But instead - I have everything else.  

49ers 26
Chiefs 23

I'm going to throw in some props I like, I'll update this as it strikes me:

Eli Mitchell over 4.5 rushing/receiving yrds
Deebo Samuel under 2.5 carries
Brandon Aiyuk over 4.5 receptions
Kyle Juszczyk over 4.5 yds receiving

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