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MLB 2020 Preview - Top Ten First Basemen

Saturday, February 22, 2020

I do this every year; my lists are based on Pecota/Davenport projections and the MLB Network lists are based on their Shredder projections.

MLB Network
10. E.Encarnacion White Sox
9. J.Bell Pirates
8. C.Santana Indians
7. L.Voit Yankees
6. M.Olson A's
5. P.Goldschmidt Cardinals
4. A.Rizzo Cubs
3. P.Alonso Mets
2. M.Muncy Dodgers
1. F.Freeman Braves


Jividen
1. A.Rizzo Cubs
2. P.Alonso Mets 
3. M.Olson A’s 
4. F.Freeman Braves 
5. P.Goldschmidt Cardinals
6. M.Muncy Dodgers
7. J.Votto Reds
8. R.Hoskins Phillies 
9. C.Santana Indians
10. L.Voit Yankees 
   

MLB 2020 Preview - Top Ten Catchers

Friday, February 21, 2020

I do this every year; my lists are based on Pecota/Davenport projections and the MLB Network lists are based on their Shredder projections. 

MLB Network
10. O.Narvaez Brewers
9. Y.Molina Cardinals
8. B.Posey Giants
7. R.Chirinos Rangers
6. W.Ramos Mets
5. G.Sanchez Yankees
4. M.Garver Twins
3. W.Contreras Cubs
2. JT Realmuto Phillies
1. Y.Grandal White Sox

Jividen List
1. Y.Grandal White Sox   
2. JT Realmuto Phillies   
3. W.Smith Dodgers   
4. G.Sanchez Yankees   
5. W.Contreras Cubs 
6. M.Garver Twins           
7. R.Perez Indians             
8. C.Vazquez Red Sox     
9. C.Kelly Diamondbacks
10. B.Posey Giants     
   

2020 MLB Predictions

Sunday, February 16, 2020

Here's the first look at this; there will certainly be adjustments made in a month.  Where there might be some value against a season win total, I'll indicate (Bovada totals as of 2-16, date of initial publication of these projections) Early March Update.

AL East
1. Yankees 95 (under 101.5)
2. Rays 89
3. Red Sox 86
4. Blue Jays 76
5. Orioles 61  (over 56.5)

AL Central
1. Twins 90
2. Indians 86
3. White Sox 82
4. Royals 67
5. Tigers 66 (over 56.5)

AL West
1. Astros 98
2. Angels 85
3. A's 85 (under 89.5)
4. Rangers 76 (under 79.5)
5. Mariners 67

AL Champions: New York Yankees

NL East
1. Mets 89 (over 86.5)
2. Nationals 88
3. Braves 85 (under 90.5)
4. Phillies 79 (under 85.5)
5. Marlins 69 (over 64.5)

NL Central
1. Reds 85
2. Cubs 84
3. Brewers 82
4. Cardinals 80 (under 88.5)
5. Pirates 71

NL West
1. Dodgers 101
2. Padres 83
3. Diamondbacks 81
4. Rockies 76
5. San Francisco Giants 68

NL Champions: Los Angeles Dodgers










The 128 Greatest Major League Baseball Teams of All Time

Monday, February 3, 2020

Here's what this is - I took Simple Rating System from Baseball Reference; ELO from FiveThirtyEight and smashed them together, with a bent toward valuing contemporary teams given a constant improvement of baseball as a system. Only including teams from the World Series era, 1903-

It ain't bad.  Here are the top 128 teams in MLB History. Why 128? Brackets, makes it easy to do a tournament.

Here we go:


128. 1979 Baltimore Orioles (AL Champions, Pythagorean Record: 98-61)
Mgr: Earl Weaver
WAR (B-Ref only) Leaders: RF Ken Singleton, P Mike Flanagan

127. 1967 St Louis Cardinals (World Series Champions, Pythagorean Record 97-64)
Mgr. Red Schoendienst
WAR (B-Ref only) 1B Orlando Cepeda P Dick Hughes

126. 2011 Philadelphia Phillies (NL East Champions, Pythag 103-59)
Mgr. Charlie Manuel
WAR CF Shane Victorino P  Cliff Lee (MVP Level Season)  P Roy Halladay (MVP Level Season)

125. 1909 Philadelphia A's (2nd in American League, Pythag 102-51)
Mgr. Connie Mack
WAR: 2B Eddie Collins (MVP Level Season) P Eddie Plank

124. 2002 San Francisco Giants (NL Champions, Pythag 98-63)
Mgr. Dusty Baker
WAR: LF Barry Bonds (MVP Level Season) P Russ Ortiz

123. 1955 New York Yankees (AL Champions, Pythag 97-57)
Mgr. Casey Stengel
WAR: CF Mickey Mantle (MVP Level Season) P Whitey Ford

122. 1999 Atlanta Braves (NL Champions, Pythag 98-64)
Mgr. Bobby Cox
WAR CF Andruw Jones, P Kevin Millwood

121. 2004 St Louis Cardinals (NL Champions, Pythag 100-62)
Mgr. Tony LaRussa
WAR 3B Scott Rolen (MVP Level) 1B Albert Pujols (MVP Level) P Jason Marquis

120. 2019 New York Yankees (AL East Champions, Pythag 99-63)
Mgr Aaron Boone
WAR 2B DJ LeMahieu, P Zack Britton

119. 2018 Los Angeles Dodgers (NL Champions, Pythag 102-61)
Mgr. Dave Roberts
WAR 3B Justin Turner, P Clayton Kershaw

118. 1917 New York Giants (NL Champions, Pythag 98-56)
Mgr. John McGraw
WAR SS Art Fletcher, P Ferdie Schupp

117. 1934 St Louis Cardinals (World Series Champions, Pythag 90-63)
Mgr. Frankie Frisch
WAR P Dizzie Dean (MVP Level) 1B Ripper Collins

116. 1958 New York Yankees (World Series Champions Pythag 96-58)
Mgr. Casey Stengel
WAR CF Mickey Mantle (MVP Level) P Whitey Ford

115. 2004 Boston Red Sox (World Series Champions, Pythag 96-66)
Mgr. Terry Francona
WAR P Curt Schilling, CF Johnny Damon

114. 1928 Philadelphia A's (2nd in American League, Pythag 97-56)
Mgr. Connie Mack
WAR P Lefty Grove, 2B Max Bishop

113. 1972 Oakland A's (World Series Champions, Pythag 97-58)
Mgr. Dick Williams
WAR LF Joe Rudi, P Catfish Hunter

112. 1997 Atlanta Braves (NL East Champions, Pythag 103-59)
Mgr. Bobby Cox
WAR P Greg Maddux, CF Kenny Lofton

111. 1995 Atlanta Braves (World Series Champions, Pythag 84-60)
Mgr. Bobby Cox
WAR P Greg Maddux (MVP Level) RF David Justice

110. 1998 Houston Astros (NL Central Champions, Pythag 106-56)
Mgr. Larry Dierker
WAR 2B Craig Biggio, P Mike Hampton

109. 1934 Detroit Tigers (American League Champions, Pythag 98-56)
Mgr. Mickey Cochrane
WAR 2B Charlie Gehringer (MVP Level) P Schoolboy Rowe

108. 1909 Detroit Tigers (American League Champions, Pythag 96-56)
Mgr. Hughie Jennings
WAR RF Ty Cobb (MVP Level) P George Mullin

107. 1906 Chicago White Sox (World Series Champions, Pythag 90-61)
Mgr. Fielder Jones
WAR P Doc White, SS George Davis

106. 1914 Boston Braves (World Series Champions, Pythag 89-64)
Mgr. George Stallings
WAR P Bill James (MVP Level) SS Rabbit Maranville

105. 1957 Milwaukee Braves (World Series Champions, Pythag 93-61)
Mgr. Fred Haney
WAR RF Hank Aaron (MVP Level) P Warren Spahn

104. 1955 Brooklyn Dodgers (World Series Champions, Pythag 95-58)
Mgr. Walter Alston
WAR CF Duke Snider (MVP Level) C Roy Campanella

103. 1948 New York Yankees (3rd in American League, Pythag 98-56)
Mgr. Bucky Harris
WAR CF Joe DiMaggio, P Vic Raschi

102. 1945 Chicago Cubs (NL Champions, Pythag 99-55)
Mgr. Charlie Grimm
WAR 1B Phil Cavaretta, P Claude Passeau

101. 1949 Brooklyn Dodgers (NL Champions, Pythag 98-56)
Mgr. Burt Shotton
WAR 2B Jackie Robinson (MVP Level) P Don Newcombe

100. 1922 New York Giants (World Series Champions, Pythag 95-59)
Mgr. John McGraw
WAR SS Dave Bancroft  P Art Nehf

99. 1925 Pittsburgh Pirates (World Series Champions, Pythag 93-60)
Mgr. Bill McKechnie
WAR RF Kiki Cuyler, P Vic Aldridge

98. 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers (NL Champions, Pythag 102-60)
Mgr. Dave Roberts
WAR 3B Justin Turner, P Clayton Kershaw

97. 1977 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, Pythag 99-63)
Mgr. Billy Martin
WAR 3B Graig Nettles, P Ron Guidry

96. 1949 Boston Red Sox (2nd in American League)
Mgr. Joe McCarthy
WAR LF Ted Williams (MVP Level) P Mel Parnell (MVP Level)

95. 1971 Pittsburgh Pirates (World Series Champions, Pythag 101-61)
Mgr Danny Murtaugh
WAR LF Willie Stargell, P Bob Robertson

94. 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates (World Series Champions, Pythag 95-67)
Mgr. Chuck Tanner
WAR RF Dave Parker, P John Candelaria

93. 1921 New York Yankees (AL Champions, Pythag 96-57)
Mgr. Miller Huggins
WAR RF Babe Ruth (MVP Level) P Carl Mays

92. 1908 New York Giants (2nd in National League, Pythag 101-53)
Mgr. John McGraw
WAR P Christy Mathewson (MVP Level) C Roger Bresnahan

91. 1957 New York Yankees (AL Champions, Pythag 98-56)
Mgr. Casey Stengel
WAR CF Mickey Mantle (MVP Level) P Tom Sturdivant

90. 2017 Houston Astros (World Series Champions, 99-63)
Mgr AJ Hinch
WAR 2B Jose Altuve (MVP Level) P Dallas Keuchel

89. 1913 Philadelphia A's (World Series Champions, 97-56)
Mgr. Connie Mack
WAR 2B Eddie Collins (MVP Level) P Chief Bender

88. 1943 New York Yankees (World Series Champions 92-62)
Mgr. Joe McCarthy
WAR P Spud Chandler, 2B Joe Gordon

87. 1983 Baltimore Orioles (World Series Champions 96-66)
Mgr. Joe Altobelli
WAR SS Cal Ripken (MVP Level) P Scott McGregor

86. 1974 Los Angeles Dodgers (NL Champions 106-56)
Mgr. Walter Alston
WAR CF Jim Wynn P Andy Messersmith

85. 1942 Brooklyn Dodgers (2nd in National League, 102-52)
Mgr. Leo Durocher
WAR SS Pee Wee Reese P Larry French

84. 1989 Oakland A's (World Series Champions, 97-65)
Mgr. Tony LaRussa
WAR P Mike Moore LF Rickey Henderson

83. 1940 Cincinnati Reds (World Series Champions, 96-57)
Mgr. Bill McKechnie
WAR P Bucky Walters 2B Lonny Frey

82. 2019 Washington Nationals (World Series Champions 95-67)
Mgr. Dave Martinez
WAR P Stephen Strasburg 3B Anthony Rendon

81. 1903 Boston Red Sox (World Series Champions 90-48)
Mgr. Jimmy Collins
WAR P Cy Young (MVP Level) SS Freddy Parent

80. 1941 Brooklyn Dodgers (NL Champions 99-55)
Mgr. Leo Durocher
WAR P Whit Wyatt CF Pete Reiser

79. 1993 Atlanta Braves (NL West Champions, 104-58)
Mgr. Bobby Cox
WAR LF Ron Gant, P Greg Maddux

78. 1978 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 99-64)
Mgr. Bob Lemon
WAR P Ron Guidry (MVP Level) 2B Willie Randolph

77. 1911 New York Giants (NL Champions, 99-54)
Mgr. John McGraw
WAR P Christy Mathewson 2B Larry Doyle

76.  1946 St Louis Cardinals (World Series Champions, 97-59)
Mgr. Eddie Dyer
WAR 1B Stan Musial (MVP Level) P Howie Pollett

75. 1949 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 95-59)
Mgr. Casey Stengel
WAR CF Joe DiMaggio P Joe Page

74. 1923 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 95-57)
Mgr. Miller Huggins
WAR RF Babe Ruth (MVP Level) P Herb Pennock

73. 1913 Philadelphia A's (World Series Champions, 97-56)
Mgr. Connie Mack
WAR 2B Eddie Collins (MVP Level) P Chief Bender

72. 1951 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 94-60)
Mgr. Casey Stengel
WAR C Yogi Berra P Allie Reynolds

71. 1984 Detroit Tigers (World Series Champions 99-63)
Mgr. Sparky Anderson
WAR SS Alan Trammell P Willie Hernandez

70. 1998 Atlanta Braves (NL East Champions, 106-56)
Mgr. Bobby Cox
WAR CF Andruw Jones, P Greg Maddux

69. 1930 Philadelphia A's (World Series Champions, 93-61)
Mgr. Connie Mack
WAR P Lefty Grove (MVP Level) LF Al Simmons

68. 1931 New York Yankees (2nd in American League, 100-53)
Mgr. Joe McCarthy
WAR RF Babe Ruth (MVP Level) 1B Lou Gehrig (MVP Level) P Lefty Gomez

67. 2001 Oakland A's (2nd in AL West, 104-58)
Mgr. Art Howe
WAR 1B Jason Giambi (MVP Level) P Mark Mulder

66. 1954 New York Giants (World Series Champions, 97-57)
Mgr. Leo Durocher
WAR CF Willie Mays (MVP Level) P Johnny Antonelli

65. 1999 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 96-66)
Mgr. Joe Torre
WAR SS Derek Jeter (MVP Level) P David Cone

64. 1931 Philadelphia A's (AL Champions, 97-55)
Mgr. Connie Mack
WAR P Lefty Grove (MVP Level) LF Al Simmons

63. 1952 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 95-59)
Mgr. Casey Stengel
WAR CF Mickey Mantle P Allie Reynolds

62. 1910 Chicago Cubs (NL Champions, 101-53)
Mgr. Frank Chance
WAR CF Solly Hoffman, P King Cole

61. 1921 New York Giants (World Series Champions, 95-58)
Mgr. John McGraw
WAR SS Dave Bancroft P Jesse Barnes

60. 2009 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 95-67)
Mgr. Joe Girardi
WAR SS Derek Jeter, P CC Sabathia

59. 1905 Chicago Cubs (3rd in National League, 104-49)
Mgr. Frank Selee
WAR P Ed Reulbach, 1B Frank Chance

58. 1968 Detroit Tigers (World Series Champions, 103-59)
Mgr. Mayo Smith
WAR P Denny McLain, C Bill Freehan

57. 1931 St Louis Cardinals (World Series Champions, 97-57)
Mgr. Gabby Street
WAR LF Chick Hafey, P Bill Hallahan

56. 2001 Seattle Mariners (AL West Champions, 109-53)
Mgr. Lou Piniella
WAR 2B Bret Boone (MVP Level) P Freddy Garcia

55. 1954 New York Yankees (2nd in American League, 101-53)
Mgr. Casey Stengel
WAR CF Mickey Mantle, P White Ford

54. 1969 Baltimore Orioles (AL Champions, 110-52)
Mgr. Earl Weaver
WAR  RF Frank Robinson, P Jim Palmer

53.1928 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 95-59)
Mgr. Miller Huggins
WAR RF Babe Ruth (MVP Level) 1B Lou Gehrig (MVP Level) P Herb Pennock

52. 2013 Red Sox (World Series Champions, 100-62)
Mgr. John Farrell
WAR 2B Dustin Pedroia, P Clay Buchholz

51. 1953 Brooklyn Dodgers (NL Champions, 99-55)
Mgr. Chuck Dressen
WAR CF Duke Snider (MVP Level) P Carl Erskine

50. 1912 New York Giants (NL Champions, 100-51)
Mgr. John McGraw
WAR P Christy Mathewson (MVP Level) 2B Larry Doyle

49. 1941 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 96-58)
Mgr. Joe McCarthy
WAR CF Joe DiMaggio (MVP Level) P Marius Russo

48. 2019 Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West Champions, 107-55)
Mgr. Dave Roberts
WAR RF Cody Bellinger (MVP Level) P Hyun-Jin Ryu

47. 1956 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 98-56)
Mgr. Casey Stengel
WAR CF Mickey Mantle (MVP Level), P Whitey Ford

46. 1971 Baltimore Orioles (AL Champions, 103-55)
Mgr. Earl Weaver
WAR 3B Brooks Robinson, P Jim Palmer

45. 1947 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 100-54)
Mgr. Bucky Harris
WAR CF Joe DiMaggio, Joe Page

44. 1986 New York Mets (World Series Champions, 103-59)
Mgr. Davey Johnson
WAR 1B Keith Hernandez, P Ron Darling

43. 1915 Boston Red Sox (World Series Champions, 95-56)
Mgr. Bill Carrigan
WAR CF Tris Speaker, P Smoky Joe Wood

42. 1935 Chicago Cubs (NL Champions, 101-53)
Mgr. Charlie Grimm
WAR 2B Billy Herman, Lon Warneke

41. 1935 Detroit Tigers (World Series Champions, 97-54)
Mgr. Mickey Cochrane
WAR 2B Charlie Gehringer, P Schoolboy Rowe

40. 1995 Cleveland Indians (AL Central Champions, 93-51)
Mgr. Mike Hargrove
WAR LF Albert Belle, P Dennis Martinez

39. 1917 Chicago White Sox (World Series Champions, 101-53)
Mgr. Pants Rowland
WAR P Eddie Cicotte (MVP Level) LF Joe Jackson

38. 2017 Cleveland Indians (AL Central Champions, 108-54)
Mgr. Terry Francona
WAR P Corey Kluber (MVP Level) 3B Jose Ramirez

37. 2002 Anaheim Angels (World Series Champions, 101-61)
Mgr. Mike Scioscia
WAR CF Darin Erstad, P Jarrod Washburn

36. 2018 Houston Astros (AL West Champions, 109-53)
Mgr. AJ Hinch
WAR 3B Alex Bregman, P Justin Verlander

35. 1950 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 96-58)
Mgr. Casey Stengel
WAR SS Phil Rizzuto P Eddie Lopat

34. 1948 Cleveland Indians (World Series Champions, 104-51)
Mgr. Lou Boudreau
WAR SS Lou Boudreau (MVP Level) P Bob Lemon

33. 1943 St Louis Cardinals (NL Champions, 101-53)
Mgr. Billy Southworth
WAR RF Stan Musial (MVP Level) P Mort Cooper

32. 2007 Boston Red Sox (World Series Champions, 101-61)
Mgr. Terry Francona
WAR P Josh Beckett, DH David Ortiz

31. 1912 Boston Red Sox (World Series Champions 102-50)
Mgr. Jake Stahl
WAR P Smoky Joe Wood (MVP Level) CF Tris Speaker (MVP Level)

30. 1904 New York Giants (NL Champions 106-47)
Mgr. John McGraw
WAR P Joe McGinnity (MVP Level) SS Bill Dahlen

29. 1954 Cleveland Indians (AL Champions, 104-50)
Mgr. Al Lopez
WAR 2B Bobby Avila, P Early Wynn

28. 1961 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 103-59)
Mgr. Ralph Houk
WAR CF Mickey Mantle (MVP Level) P Whitey Ford

27. 1919 Cincinnati Reds (World Series Champions, 92-48)
Mgr. Pat Moran
WAR 3B Heinie Groh, P Dutch Ruether

26. 2019 Houston Astros (AL Champions, 107-55)
Mgr. AJ Hinch
WAR 3B Alex Bregman (MVP Level) P Justin Verlander

25. 1908 Chicago Cubs (World Series Champions, 98-56)
Mgr. Frank Chance
WAR P Three Finger Brown (MVP Level) SS Joe Tinker

24. 1938 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 97-55)
Mgr. Joe McCarthy
WAR P Red Ruffing C Bill Dickey

23. 1953 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 101-50)
Mgr. Casey Stengel
WAR CF Mickey Mantle P Johnny Sain

22. 1976 Cincinnati Reds (World Series Champions, 103-59)
Mgr. Sparky Anderson
WAR 2B Joe Morgan (MVP Level) P Pat Zachry

21. 1944 St Louis Cardinals (World Series Champions, 107-47)
Mgr. Billy Southworth
WAR RF Stan Musial (MVP Level) P Mort Cooper

20. 2018 Boston Red Sox (World Series Champions, 103-59)
Mgr. Alex Cora
WAR RF Mookie Betts (MVP Level) P Chris Sale

19. 1936 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 102-51)
Mgr. Joe McCarthy
WAR 1B Lou Gehrig (MVP Level) P Red Ruffing

18. 1932 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 99-55)
Mgr. Joe McCarthy
WAR RF Babe Ruth (MVP Level) P Red Ruffing

17. 1929 Philadelphia A's (World Series Champions, 100-50)
Mgr. Connie Mack
WAR 1B Jimmie Foxx P Lefty Grove

16. 1975 Cincinnati Reds (World Series Champions, 107-55)
Mgr. Sparky Anderson
WAR 2B Joe Morgan P Don Gullett

15. 1937 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 103-51)
Mgr. Joe McCarthy
WAR P Lefty Gomez (MVP Level) CF Joe DiMaggio (MVP Level)

14. 1909 Chicago Cubs (2nd in National League, 109-44)
Mgr. Frank Chance
WAR P Three Finger Brown (MVP Level) P Orval Overall (MVP Level) SS Joe Tinker

13. 1970 Baltimore Orioles (World Series Champions, 104-58)
Mgr. Earl Weaver
WAR P Jim Palmer CF Paul Blair

12. 1942 New York Yankees (AL Champions, 107-47)
Mgr. Joe McCarthy
WAR 2B Joe Gordon (MVP Level) P Tiny Bonham

11. 1911 Philadelphia A's (World Series Champions, 99-52)
Mgr. Connie Mack
WAR 2B Eddie Collins 3B Home Run Baker

10. 1907 Chicago Cubs (World Series Champions, 102-50)
Mgr. Frank Chance
WAR P Orval Overall 2B Johnny Evers

9. 1905 New York Giants (World Series Champions, 105-48)
Mgr. John McGraw
WAR P Christy Mathewson (MVP Level) CF Mike Donlin

8. 1910 Philadelphia A's (World Series Champions, 103-47)
Mgr. Connie Mack
WAR 2B Eddie Collins (MVP Level) P Jack Coombs (MVP Level)

7. 1909 Pittsburgh Pirates (World Series Champions, 105-47)
Mgr. Fred Clarke
WAR SS Honus Wagner (MVP Level) P Howie Camnitz

6. 2016 Chicago Cubs (World Series Champions, 107-54)
Mgr. Joe Maddon
WAR 3B Kris Bryant, P Jon Lester

5. 1998 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 108-54)
Mgr. Joe Torre
WAR SS Derek Jeter P David Wells

4. 1942 St Louis Cardinals (World Series Champions, 107-47)
Mgr. Billy Southworth
WAR P Mort Cooper (MVP Level) RF Enos Slaughter

3. 1906 Chicago Cubs (NL Champions, 115-37)
Mgr. Frank Chance
WAR 1B Frank Chance, P Three Finger Brown

2. 1927 New York Yankees (World Series Champions, 109-45)
Mgr. Miller Huggins
WAR RF Babe Ruth (MVP Level) 1B Lou Gehrig (MVP Level) P Waite Hoyt

1. 1939 New York Yankees  (World Series Champions, 111-40)
Mgr. Joe McCarthy
WAR CF Joe DiMaggio (MVP Level) P Red Ruffing













































49ers Super Bowl History

Saturday, January 25, 2020









Super Bowl 16
There really is nothing else except the quarterback.- Tom Landry, after the NFC Championship

What was it like to be a San Francisco 49ers fan in the late 1970s?

We had won 4 games out of our last 35 as we hit 1980.  When you’re a ten year old sports inclined boy living in the Bay Area, forming attachments for the first time with institutions outside of your own head, and the NFL team is as existentially bad as those late 70s 49ers teams, you either distance yourself emotionally out of an instinctive sense of self-protection, or you wear the losing as if part of your own identity, the shortcomings of your team mirroring your innermost lack of belief in your own worth.

I made the wrong choice. 

Until it started raining Super Bowls.

30+ years later, “The Catch” has withstood time’s passage and emerged as probably the signature play in NFL history, but at the time, the 49er vanquishing of America’s Team did not make us prohibitive favorites in Super Bowl 16.  Kenny Anderson, who should be near the top of your list of greatest NFL players not in the Hall of Fame, led the NFL in passing, and the Niners had to travel to the Midwest, as the Super Bowl was played in Detroit, a decision that seemed curious even at the time. 

Vegas missed and so did Landry, for while the quarterback was named MVP – Super Bowl 16 came down to Turnovers, Ray Wersching, and Danny Bunz.

The 49er franchise has dominated America’s Greatest Day like no other, but they began by fumbling their opening kickoff.  It was the only Niner turnover of the game; the Bengals gave it up 3 times before the end of the first half, each turnover directly led to Niner points (hold onto the ball in the Super Bowl; there have been 46 Super Bowls, in 37 of them there was a difference in the number of turnovers the teams had – in those 37 games, the team that won the turnover battle won the game 34 times.  Can I say it again please?  Only 3 times in Super Bowl history has the team that committed more turnovers won.  Don’t turn the ball over.)  

The Niners had long first half touchdown drives, of 6 and 7 minutes (who scored the first 49er Super Bowl Touchdown – Joe, Just Joe – you say Joe to any San Francisco sports fan regardless of context and he knows who you mean) and ended the half with a Ray Wersching squib kickoff that turned into a Bengal fumble that turned into a half ending field goal. 

Wersching was 4-4 in field goals in Super Bowl 16, added a fifth field goal three years later, all without a miss.  His post football life has not been as spotless. 

I was 11 years old in January of 1982; when you’re 11 years old and the football team you love has a 20 point halftime lead in the Super Bowl, all is right with the universe. 

Our lead was still 13 points as the third quarter ended, but only after the greatest goal line stand in Super Bowl history

It’s easily forgotten that the Bengals converted on fourth and one on the play just before the four downs that would define Super Bowl 16, with a two yard Pete Johnson run. 

First down, goal to go from the 3 – Johnson got two more, once again in the middle of the line, stopped by 
John Choma (who started the season as an offensive lineman) followed by Danny Bunz.

Second down, goal to go from the 1 – Johnson again - Bunz eats up the lead blocker, allowing for the tackle by Craig Puki and Hacksaw Reynolds

Third down, goal to go from the 1– A pass, in the flat to Charles Alexander, just outside end zone, stopped by a Bunz waist tackle

Fourth down, goal to go from the 1 – with only 10 men on defense for the Niners, Johnson ran into the line where he was stopped  at the goal line by Hacksaw, Ronnie Lott, and Danny Bunz.

In Super Bowl 16, Dan Bunz only played on the goal line and special teams – if I had an MVP vote for the game, it would have gone to Wersching (two successful squib kicks and 4 FGs) but as good a choice would have been Bunz.

The Bengals weren’t done after the goal line stand; they cut the score to 20-14 with ten minutes to go; but the Niners drove 50 yards in 5 minutes, including five Ricky Patton runs, to set up a big Wersching 40 yard field goal that made it a two score game with five and a half left.  If the game situation Sunday is the same, and David Akers lines up to attempt a 40 yard field goal that will either put the game nearly out of reach or give Joe Flacco the ball, how comfortable are you that the outcome will be the same?

One last Bengal turnover, an Eric Wright pick, led to the 4th Wersching kick; a garbage time Bengal touchdown gave us the final score of 26-21.  



Super Bowl 19
This week we are playing against the greatest passer of all time, as I understand it –Bill Walsh, discussing the conventional wisdom about Dan Marino

In 1984, Dan Marino lapped the field; 400 more yards, 16 more touchdowns, a yard and a half more yards/attempt than any other quarterback.  1984 was Neil Lomax’s career year; he was the only quarterback within a thousand yards of Marino.  Neil Lomax was sacked 49 times to Dan Marino’s 13.  Dan Marino’s quarterback rating in the AFC Championship game was over 135. Dan Marino was playing Nintendo and the rest of the league was a broke down electric football board.

The Dolphins had our old defensive coordinator; Chuck Studley was our coordinator 3 years previous and now he was Miami’s.

And they had a gimmick.  Remember how Hagler came out right handed in the Leonard fight?  You’ve been watching southpaw Marvin Hagler forever – and suddenly he’s right handed? 

The Dolphins went no huddle in the first quarter of Super Bowl 19; this was a brand new offense for the NFL; the Bengals started experimenting with it during the season – but that was Sam Wyche, a coach whose offense the LA Times once called “an assault on the senses” – this was Don Shula, the man in the grey flannel sweater.   If he had given birth during Reagan’s coin toss it wouldn’t have been significantly more unexpected. 

After the first quarter Miami had scored on both of their possessions and we were losing 10-7.   

Then came the second quarter.  Bill Walsh was noted for scripting plays the start a football game, but his ability to adjust on the fly was evident here – the Niners came out in the second quarter with six defensive backs, forced 3 and outs on the next three Dolphin drives – after each of those possession changes the Niners  scored a touchdown, that’s a 21 point swing in 12 minutes, and the game was effectively over.  

Miami’s inability to get a first down during that stretch was exacerbated by punter Reggie Roby; his three punts were 37, 40, and 39 yards – giving the Niners field possession round midfield each time, and when San Francisco converted with scores by Joe and Roger Craig (he had two in this sequence and finished with three, making OJ Simpson’s pregame prediction of a big game for Craig accurate).

Miami got two late first half field goals and then didn’t score at all in the second half; for the game, Marino was sacked four times and threw two picks – I’ve evaluated ever starting quarterback performance in Super Bowl history; out of 92 quarterbacked games – Dan Marino’s only ever Super Bowl was 62nd

Meanwhile, Roger Craig and Wendell Tyler had a combined 270 total yards of offense and Joe Montana followed up his MVP performance from three years previous with a significantly better effort here, 24 for 35, 331 yards, three passing touchdowns and one on the ground, and what is still the second most yards rushing for a Super Bowl quarterback.  This is the fifth best quarterback performance history and not even Joe’s best. 

The Niners – my Niners, who filled my 14 year old life with every bit of non-sex related nourishment I could possibly need, were the first team in NFL history to win 18 games.

And 3 months later, we drafted the greatest football player who ever lived. 


Super Bowl 23
Hey, isn't that John Candy - Joe Montana before the greatest drive in Super Bowl history.

This game made my face break out. 

I wish I had a picture; there weren’t many days when I was 18 years old that I was clear of facial blemish, and the heavy pancake makeup used in college theater didn’t help, as the day before Super Bowl 23 I finished a run giving a mediocre performance in a mediocre play (they were all mediocre, I was always mediocre; I did not appreciate that at the time – as I’ve aged, my youthful accomplishments feel closer to Toddlers & Tiaras than they do to actual attainment; there was some college play where I would make out 
backstage with the girl who did the makeup; that was probably the highlight of my thespian career)

We were big  favorites here; 7 points, but shouldn’t have been – by Pro-Football Reference’s Simple Rating System, the Bengals were the better club in 1988.  In the years between 19 and 23, Joe had broken his back, nearly been traded to San Diego for Billy Ray Smith, and Steve Young had been acquired to begin the most torturous passive aggressive quarterback battle in league history. Our regular season record in 1988 wasn’t only the worst for any Super Bowl winner to that date, it was the worst for an NFL Champ since 1934.  1984 was in the distant past and the clock was ticking on what was not as of yet a dynasty.

With 3 minutes and ten seconds left, down a field goal from our own 8 yard line, that metaphorical clock turned very real.  Historical memory works like this sometimes – had the Niners won 27-10, efficiently extinguishing a Bengal opponent that’s been left in the dustbin, the legend of Montana and the greatness of those 49er teams would have been a little diminished.  Staring immortality down by cracking a John Candy joke in the huddle has become the glow around Joe’s legacy. 

We started with two passes in the middle of the field – Roger Craig for 8, John Frank for 7.
Tick.  Tick.  Tick. 

A 7 yard out on the right to Jerry, and then a one yard Craig run right as we hit the two minute warning.

Third and 2 for the Niners at our own 31. 

Craig off tackle for 4.  1st down.  Timeout #1.

The next two plays got us 30 yards. 

Jerry got 17 on a pass left from Joe, stepping out of bounds to stop the clock, and then Roger caught a 13 yard check down in the middle of the field.  The only incompletion of the drive and a ten yard penalty on Randy Cross, in his last NFL game, backed us up to the Bengal 45, 2nd down and 20, 1 minute and 17 seconds left. 

I’ve done an evaluation of the “real MVPs” of every Super Bowl.  When considering 23 it was largely our defense that carried the bulk of the game - you'd look at Ronnie Lott with his memorable hit on Ickey Woods, leading a secondary that limited a historically underrated Esiason to the 71st best QB game in SB history.  You'd look at Charles Haley, a terror from the edge with 2 sacks and 7 unassisted tackles.  You'd look at Joe - this the 10th best quarterbacked game in SB history 23 of 36 for 357 yards and two scores - and then settle on Jerry Rice- 11 catches for 215 and a score and more than anyone responsible for our winning the game.  If someone can dominate a football game from the WR position - it was Rice in SB23.

On 2nd and 20 from the Bengal 45 Jerry caught a ball over the middle 12 yards downfield, then split two Bengal defensive backs to gain another 15.  We were at the 18 yard line and I was calculating field goal distances. 

Ray Wersching was 5-5 in his two Super Bowls, but now our kicker was Mike Cofer – and he had already missed two attempts during the game.  If we didn’t gain another yard, we were looking at a 35 yarder to send us into overtime, and there wasn’t a Niner fan alive who was confident that kick would be going through. 

Joe hit Roger over the middle for 8.

Timeout.  39 seconds left.  At the Bengal 10.

Baseball was largely a solitary passion for me; pouring over statistics, trying to find out of town radio broadcasts.  Football was about my family; my memory of John Taylor’s catching the game winning touchdown pass on the next play is less about the call (20 Halfback Curl X Up) or JT’s cut to the post that beat Ray Horton by inches to the football.  It was about all five us leaping simultaneously from our seats in maybe the single most unifying moment of family joy in my life.  I am not so good in clusters; I backed out of a dinner a friend was throwing for me when I turned 20 because too many people wound up invited; a girlfriend didn’t even consider asking me to come to a Halloween party she threw once knowing that I wouldn’t have been able to handle it (she was right). My biggest fear in isn’t dying, it’s living in a managed care facility with other people.  I would rather be in the ground than in a rec. room with two dozen other retirees.  I loved those 49ers teams because that was when I could feel the love from my family.  When Joe hit JT to win Super Bowl 23, I could still be me, even though I was not alone.


Super Bowl 24
Wade what do you think about doing something different? – Broncos secondary coach Charlie Watters to D-Coordinator Wade Phillips at halftime

Here’s the thing – by Simple Rating System this Broncos defense was the 21st best in Super Bowl history; they allowed the fewest points in the league in 1989.  The Niners were favored by 7 and a half, but you could not have gone into Super Bowl 24 thinking you were about to see the biggest blowout in Super Bowl history; a 45 point margin in a game where the Niners sat their offensive starters for all but one minute of the 4th quarter. 

Here’s the challenge of picking the greatest 49er Super Bowl winner; the ’84 team was 18-1 and blew out Dan Marino – but didn’t have Jerry Rice.  How can you possibly say the best 49er team wasn’t one with the greatest football player who ever lived?

But this ’89 team didn’t have Bill Walsh; he retired the year prior.  I feel about Bill Walsh the way right wingers feel about Reagan.  I’d like to see a couple of airports, a stretch of the interstate highway system, and maybe some type of hybrid dog breed like a cross between a dachshund and a Labrador retriever named after Bill Walsh.  So to say it was the team without Walsh which was the best is the only blasphemy this atheist is ever going to recognize. 

What I do know is no team in NFL postseason history put on a performance like this Niners team; after going 14-2 in the regular season we won our 3 playoff games by a combined score of 126-26.  Mel Kiper still argues today that John Elway was the greatest quarterback in NFL history – in Super Bowl 24 he turned the ball over three times, was sacked four times, was 10 of 26 for 108 yards and finished with a passer rating under 20.  My evaluation has this the 7th worst quarterbacked game in Super Bowl history.

On the other side of the ball was Joe Montana. 

This was his fourth and final appearance in a Super Bowl; it remains the greatest Super Bowl game anybody ever had.  5 touchdown passes (3 to Rice). A quarterback rating of just under 150.  It was 55-10 with 14 minutes left in the game and we called off the dogs.   I get arguments to the contrary, I do – but if you put every quarterback who ever played on the board, I think you have to take Joe.  Peyton’s never had a good Super Bowl and threw a pick 6 to lose one; Brady lost to two dramatically inferior Giants teams; Favre’s best Super Bowl was the fifteenth best quarterbacked game overall; and when both Marino and Elway had a chance to go up against him, they had all time bad – just epically bad in Elway’s case, performances, and Joe had among the greatest games in NFL history. 

It’s a bit of a love letter – but for one night, no one was ever better than the 1989 Niners. 


Super Bowl 29

If we lose, we die. – Carmen Policy before the NFC Championship game.

Some of the greatest teams in 49er history were in the 1990s, and Steve Young’s regular season performances rank with any in league history.  But season after season we came up short, surpassed first by that Cowboy dynasty and then by Favre’s best Packer teams. 

For one season though, we were once again the baddest team on the planet. 

Here’s a quick gambling tip – don’t give more than 10 in an NFL game.  Ever.  If it’s you and me against Lombardi’s best Packer team, we shouldn’t be more than ten point dogs.  It’s just the nature of the NFL.  A 16 point blowout can be easily backdoor covered into a 9 point “wait, what…” loss.  Just don’t do it.

I gave 18 in Super Bowl 29 and it never once concerned me.

This was a crazy talented football team – Steve and Jerry were now joined by Ricky Watters, who a year before scored 5 touchdowns in the divisional playoffs to retire Lawrence Taylor.  On defense were Hall of Famers Deion Sanders, Rickey Jackson; borderline Hall of Famers Tim McDonald and Bryant Young, and multiple Super Bowl winner Ken Norton.  If Prime Time were 15 years younger he would have his own ESPN special talking about “taking his talents to Ocean Beach” when he signed for this season with the Niners.

I flew to Miami for this game; I couldn’t get tickets, but my parents lived in South Florida, so my record of seeing every Niner Super Bowl with my family continued .

The game was over in 90 seconds; it was like Tyson/Spinks (young Mike Tyson vs the ’94 Niners, discuss) Steve hit Jerry for a 44 yard score on the third play of the game.  After a three and out – we scored again on the 4th play of our second drive, Watters getting a catch and run 51 yard score.  Less than 5 minutes into Super Bowl 29 and we were up 14. 

The final was 49-26 and not that close.  Similar to 5 years previous the Niners finished their scoring at the very beginning of the 4th quarter and coasted home;  the backups came in at mid-quarter leading to a trivia question whose answer is about to change – three 49er quarterbacks have completed Super Bowl passes – who’s the third guy?

It’s Bill Musgrave.

Steve Young threw six touchdown passes and even rushed for 49 yards.  It’s still the second best quarterbacked game in Super Bowl history.  You know who is first.

I took it for granted, the Niner greatness.  We built a better mousetrap and sprung it on the rest of the league for 15 years. 

The 49er dynasty was long ago and far away.  

Super Bowl 47

"How could it be any other way? - Ravens coach John Harbaugh.

Had you told me in January of '95 that the next time the Niners would see a Super Bowl a former Bears QB would be our head coach; I'd have been pleased things turned out so well for Mike Tomczak. The 90s ended after Steve Young took one too many headshots and it wssn't too many years later that we were fully in the wilderness. The second worst Niners team in franchise history was 2004 (Joe was our SB winning QB in '84, Steve our SB winning QB in '94, 2004 was Tim Rattay) and the 4th worst Niners team in franchise history was 2005 (you may have heard that the Niners chose Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers in that year's draft - Rodgers won the Super Bowl five years later and Alex Smith did not do that.) The 5th worst Niners team of all time was 2007 (I'm making a point here - things got dark in Century 21; I mean, Mike Singletary was the head coach and not the worst one we'd have). 

Between 2003-2018 the Niners had 3 winning seasons; 2011,2012,2013 - all three ended on the season's final play in pieces on the ground. I have interested beyond the Niners; I went to USC (for like a second) and have been a Trojans fan since Charlie White. As the Niners slogged through the century's first decade, USC returned to prominence under Pete Carroll; included within that story was a feud with, of all teams, Stanford, who had been resuscitated by Jim Harbaugh. Carroll was LA cool and Harbaugh was a goddamn mad man - and as the calendar turned to the century's second decade, they took their shows to the NFC West - Carroll to helm the Seahawks and Harbaugh to coach your beloved 49ers.  Criss-Cross!

In 2011 - Harbaugh's first San Francisco season - we improved 7 wins, our best record since '97, and advanced all the way to Overtime of the NFC Championship where a Kyle Williams fumbled punt return handed the Giants the Super Bowl birth (they won)  In 2013, Harbaugh's third season - a Colin Kaepernick end zone interception ended the NFC Championship and moved Carroll's Seahawks into the Super Bowl (they won).

But in between was this season; Alex Smith (the guy who wasn't Aaron Rodgers) was replaced at midseason by Colin Kaepernick - his running ability and a choking defense propelled the Niners to the first Super Bowl since '94, where we'd play a solidly inferior Baltimore Ravens team coached by Harbaugh's brother John.  If Brother v Brother sounds like professional wrestling booking - listen to what happened next.

Baltimore took the second half kick back 108 yards to give them a 28-6 lead.  The largest Super Bowl deficit ever overcome (this is no longer true, but was then) was 10 points.  22, it may surprise you, is more than 10.

And then the Superdome stadium lights went out for 34 minutes. 

Halfway through the third quarter Kaepernick hit Michael Crabtree for a 31 yard score to cut it to 28-13.  Two and a half minutes later Frank Gore was in the end zone with a 6 yard score and it was 28-20. A minute and a half after that David Akers kicked a 34 yard FG and it was 28-23.  In less than 5 minutes of game time the Niners scored 17 straight points. 

The Ravens kicked an early 4th Q field goal but Kaepernick was not going to be denied - with 10 minutes left in the game he was in the end zone and the Niners deficit was cut to 31-29 (the failed 2 point conversion attempt was a pass intended for Randy Moss.  Yes, Randy Moss played on the 2012 49ers, he caught 28 balls and retired. 

The next time the Niners got the ball the score was 34-29 with 4 minutes to play.  And just like 1988, they began to drive.

1st down at our own 20 - Gore (probably on his way to the Hall of Fame, if he ever decides to retire) goes off right guard for 8 yards.  

Kaepernick runs for 8 on second down.  We're at our own 36 with 3:40 to play. 

After an incompletion - Kaepernick hit Crabtree over the middle for 24, and man, oh, man, we're at the Raven 40 with 2:47 to play. 

On the next play Gore went around left end for 33.  And man, oh, man, we're at the Raven 7 with 2:39 to play.  

I realize now I shouldn't have written any of that.  The entire section should just be the next four downs.  Pretend you're starting here.  

LaMichael James had 44 carries in his NFL career.  

He got the ball on first down, picking up 2 yards to the 5.

On second down Kaepernick rolled right - looked for Crabtree just outside the goal line near the pylon - incomplete.  

On third down Kaepernick threw to Crabtree again, here, even had he held onto the ball, the gain would have been 2..maybe 3 yards, which is not as many as the five yards needed to win this football game.  

Crabtree did not hold onto the ball and its 4th down.

The Ravens blitzed - Kaepernick threw quickly in the general direction of Crabtree and we were no longer unbeaten in Super Bowl play.

How could it be any other way? Well, other than it always had, I couldn't tell you, Coach.

Anyway, Harbaugh, as it turns out, was pretty much hated by everyone above his pay grade in the organization and was headed to the Big 10 two years later.  Kaepernick would become one of the most famous athletes in the world for entirely praiseworthy reasons that do not include winning football games for the 49ers and we'd again dissolve into irrelevance. 

Fortunately, it wouldn't take another 18 years to return.  7 years later, we were headed back.


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