jim jividen

NL Wild Card Pick

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

I'll take Arrieta.

This is fairly close to my thought process from yesterday - in a coin flip, I'll take the better arm.

Arrieta was the second best pitcher in baseball this season; I can't pick against him in a one game situation. The Pirates were a little better than the Cubs this year; the Cubs have the two best 2015 position players on the field (both Rizzo and Bryant had better seasons than McCutchen) and when you add Russell and Schwarber, they're (like Houston) the team you'd rather watch this October.

There's no way on earth I'd bet this game.

Cole was a top ten pitcher in all of MLB this season; the Pirates have the better late end bullpen, and the Cubs are a little too feast or famine offensively (lot of homers, lot of strikeouts) to profile as a team likely to go deep in the tournament. Pittsburgh lost this same game, at home, last year - and while that type of experience is a pretty thin metric, when predicting the outcome of a single game, particularly a game as tight on so many sides as is this, you notice that it's on the scale.

I've gone back and forth; there's obviously a Go Cubs narrative that is likely to take hold the further they advance and it's important not to let that cloud thinking. There aren't a ton of ex-Giants in this postseason, but Morse and Ishikawa (if he makes the roster) are both in Pittsburgh, and I would definitely root for each in whatever spots they found themselves.

This is as narrow a pick as I can offer, at the end of the day, as did I with the AL game, I'll just take the better starting pitcher - right now, that's Arrieta so I'll say Cubs.

Full previews tomorrow; I alluded in the AL piece that I'd be picking Toronto, they're the best team - the NL is more challenging, the Cards were the best team in the regular season (but not by the margin the Jays were in the AL) and while the Jays today (Price) are better than the Jays have been throughout the season, injuries have roughed up St. Louis to the point where I'm inclined to pick the WC winner to beat them. Impossible to pick against the Dodgers in their series given the strength of those two pitchers; after that it's hard to say. From this spot, not knowing who comes out of the
WC, the pick is LA - but tomorrow, I might be inclined to say the winner of this game wins the pennant.

AL Wild Card Pick

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

I'll take Keuchel.

Houston doesn't model well to win the whole thing; they're too reliant on home runs (which can disappear in October) and they don't have much of a pen (a deep pen and bats that make contact are the two factors you look for first when making a prediction).

But if you have to decide heads or tails in the coin flip game, I'll take the guy who was the AL's best pitcher this season who also pitched well against the Yankees. He's on short rest and, given the state of the Astros pen, will be needed to go as deep as he can (if it becomes a battle of short relief, the Yanks have a strong advantage with Betances and Miller).

I'm rooting for Houston, they're Team Metric and I'd like to see them win the pennant. Additionally, Correa/Altuve were both best in the AL at their positions this season (Houston has both the best pitcher and the two best position players in this game) and Springer is a fun young player; they would be enjoyable to watch make a run. The Yanks best position player this year was McCann and he might sit given the platoon split. Tanaka's only pitched once in the last two and a half weeks and it was five inning, four run outing. There's some veteran fun in a Yankee run, with Ellsbury/Gardner/Beltran and should be inner circle Hall of Famer A-Rod in the lineup,

Houston was better than the Yankees during the regular season.

There's a real chance the winner here goes to the ALCS; the best team in the AL is clearly Toronto and the worst team to make the AL playoffs is Texas, but you can throw a sack over Astros/Yankees/Royals and were any of them to emerge on that side of the bracket it wouldn't really qualify as an upset. New York has home field, they have a better back end of the pen - taking them is a defensible position (in one game, taking anyone is a defensible position, if New York wins 15-1 that's not startling, it's one game) but I'll go Keuchel and say Houston advances.

2015 MLB - Top 5, Each Position

Monday, October 5, 2015

Number is WAR (baseball-reference+Davenport). It's the best WAR. Trust me.

Catcher
1. Buster Posey SFG 7.2
2. Russell Martin Tor 4.05
3. Francisco Cervelli Pit 3.35
4. Brian McCann NYY 3.3
5. Stephen Vogt Oak 3

First Basemen
1. Paul Goldschmidt Ari 8.85
2. Joey Votto Cin 7.25
3. Anthony Rizzo ChC 6.6
4. Miguel Cabrera Det 5.7
5. Adrian Gonzalez LAD 5.15

Second Basemen
1. Dee Gordon Mia 5.5
3. Jose Altuve Hou 5.4
3. Ian Kinsler Det 5.3
4. Jason Kipnis Cle 4.25
5. Logan Forsythe TB 4

Shortstop
1. Brandon Crawford SFG 5.95
2. Carlos Correa Hou 4.35
3. Xavier Bogaerts Bos 4.15
4. Francisco Lindor Cle 4.15,
5. Elvis Andrus Tex 3.3

Third Basemen
1. Josh Donaldson Tor 8.1
2. Manny Machado Balt 6.8
3. Nolan Arenado Col 6.3
4. Kris Bryant ChC 6
5. Matt Duffy SFG 4.55

Left Fielders
1.Yoennis Cespedes NYM 5.35
2. David Peralta Ari 4.95
3. Justin Upton SD 4.2
4. Michael Brantley Cle 3.95
5. Christian Yelich Mia 3.85

Center Fielders
1. Mike Trout LAA 9.1 AL MVP
2. AJ Pollock Ari 6.7
3. Lorenzo Cain KC 6.45
4. Kevin Kiermaier TB 6.4
5. Mookie Betts Bos 4.55

Right Fielders
1. Bryce Harper Wash 10.15 NL MVP
2. Jason Heyward StL 5.85,
3. Nelson Cruz Sea 5.5
4. Jose Bautista Tor 5.05
5. Curtis Granderson NYM 4.7

Designated Hitter
1. Edwin Encarnacion Tor 4.95
2. David Ortiz Bos 3.45
3. Alex Rodriguez NYY 3.1

Starting Pitchers
1. Zach Greinke LAD 10.05 NL Cy
2. Jake Arrieta ChC 9.45
3. Clayton Kershaw LAD 7.8
4. Dallas Keuchel Hou 7.45 AL Cy
5. Max Scherzer Wash 7.4
6. Madison Bumgarner SFG 6.15
7. David Price Tor 5.95
8. John Lackey StL 5.8
9. Sonny Gray Oak 5.7
10. Gerrit Cole Pit 5.6

Relief Pitchers
1. Wade Davis KC 4.25
2. Aroldis Chapman Cin 4.15
3. Dellin Betances NYY 4.05
4. Trevor Rosenthal StL 3.95
5. Jeurys Familia NYM 3.85