1. It's on Kaepernick.
Two picks and a lost fumble in the 4th quarter. Strip away the noise, that's the signal. Kaepernick lost the game. Doesn't make him a bad guy; I don't care how he wears his hat, doesn't mean we shouldn't have let Alex Smith go. Two picks, the fumble. We don't score in the 4th quarter. It's Kaepernick's loss.
2. Bowman. Jeesh.
NaVorro Bowman was our best player this season; his holding onto the fumble after (at least) shredding his knee goes down with Ronnie Lott's cutting off his finger so he could play as an inner circle tough guy move. Even with our moving down the field for what looked to be a game winning touchdown, it was hard to be fully invested after what happened to that guy. Probably, the Seattle fans who threw stuff at him as he was being carted off regret that behavior.
3. Seahawks +2.5
Denver's opened up as the favorite; take the points. Seattle wins straight up. If you can parlay with 12 Years A Slave, feel free to kick a little back my way.
The Morning After the Night Before - 3 Quick Thoughts About the NFC Championship
Monday, January 20, 2014
2014 NBA All Star Ballot
The first build is here.
This is the final build, using Win Shares, PER, WARP.
East
C A.Drummond
PF C.Anthony
SF L.James
PG K.Lowry
SG D.Wade
C J.Noah
PF PMillsap
SF P.George
PG J.Wall
SG A.Afflalo
C A.Horford
PG K.Irving
West
C A.Davis
PF K.Love
SF K.Durant MVP
PG C.Paul
SG J.Harden
C D.Cousins
PF B.Griffin
SF N.Batum
PG S.Curry
SG G.Dragic
PF D.Nowtizki
PG D. Lillard
This is the final build, using Win Shares, PER, WARP.
East
C A.Drummond
PF C.Anthony
SF L.James
PG K.Lowry
SG D.Wade
C J.Noah
PF PMillsap
SF P.George
PG J.Wall
SG A.Afflalo
C A.Horford
PG K.Irving
West
C A.Davis
PF K.Love
SF K.Durant MVP
PG C.Paul
SG J.Harden
C D.Cousins
PF B.Griffin
SF N.Batum
PG S.Curry
SG G.Dragic
PF D.Nowtizki
PG D. Lillard
2013 NFL Conference Championship Predictions
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Last week is here.
I was 4-0 outright, 2-2 ATS; a moment of frustration, I had NO +7.5, had I written the prediction the following day I would have gotten 8.5 and covered. It's a minor lament, I'm 5-2-1 ATS for the playoffs so far, one shouldn't complain.
AFC Championship
Denver -4.5 NE
I've been planning on taking the Patriots; the line opened at 7 and the public has driven it down to 4.5.
At that point, I sell. Denver's been solidly better this year and even with the many Bronco defensive injuries I don't think NE scores enough points to beat them.
Super Bowl 47 1/2
SF +3.5 Sea
I'm also picking the Niners to win outright.
That's not supported by the metrics I use; if the Carolina game was exactly flipped, with the Panthers dominating us to the degree we beat them, I would not consider taking Carolina to win this game. I picked Seattle/Denver to be the Super Bowl before the season and before the playoffs.
But pick against the Niners in the NFC Title game - nope; I don't use the "eye test" - but that's what this is; without Harvin I don't see Seattle's offense with the ability to exploit our corners, which is really the only defensive issue we have. Our front 7 can get push against the middle of that Seattle line; we held Rodgers under 200 yards passing and shut out the Panthers in the second half - add in Wilson throwing for a hundred yards at home against that Saints secondary, and I think it unlikely they're able to blow us out.
Making it a close game - adding Crabtree (there isn't yet a lot of concern reported about his health, but if he doesn't practice Wednesday I'll start to be worried) really changes our offense, a team hasn't taken away Crabtree and Boldin and Davis at the same time. If there's a team who could it's Seattle; they're the best team in the league - but we don't have to score a ton of points, just move the ball (get that OL push all game, wear them down, pop Gore in the 4th quarter) hit a crucial big play, and be able to win late. That's been the formula for the team for weeks.
It's partially home team colored glasses; this is a soft analysis as opposed to relying on the metrics I always use. In the long run, you use those metrics; they demonstrate who the best teams are. Regardless of how this game turns out, the best team in the NFL in 2013 was Seattle.
But I'll say we beat them anyway 23-21.
Looking ahead, the NFC is giving 2 1/2 in the Super Bowl, consider that and consider the money line as well - there isn't a configuration after this weekend where you shouldn't feel comfortable with the NFC Champion winning the Super Bowl.
I have two more pieces coming for the other place later this week. I'll post links here.
I was 4-0 outright, 2-2 ATS; a moment of frustration, I had NO +7.5, had I written the prediction the following day I would have gotten 8.5 and covered. It's a minor lament, I'm 5-2-1 ATS for the playoffs so far, one shouldn't complain.
AFC Championship
Denver -4.5 NE
I've been planning on taking the Patriots; the line opened at 7 and the public has driven it down to 4.5.
At that point, I sell. Denver's been solidly better this year and even with the many Bronco defensive injuries I don't think NE scores enough points to beat them.
Super Bowl 47 1/2
SF +3.5 Sea
I'm also picking the Niners to win outright.
That's not supported by the metrics I use; if the Carolina game was exactly flipped, with the Panthers dominating us to the degree we beat them, I would not consider taking Carolina to win this game. I picked Seattle/Denver to be the Super Bowl before the season and before the playoffs.
But pick against the Niners in the NFC Title game - nope; I don't use the "eye test" - but that's what this is; without Harvin I don't see Seattle's offense with the ability to exploit our corners, which is really the only defensive issue we have. Our front 7 can get push against the middle of that Seattle line; we held Rodgers under 200 yards passing and shut out the Panthers in the second half - add in Wilson throwing for a hundred yards at home against that Saints secondary, and I think it unlikely they're able to blow us out.
Making it a close game - adding Crabtree (there isn't yet a lot of concern reported about his health, but if he doesn't practice Wednesday I'll start to be worried) really changes our offense, a team hasn't taken away Crabtree and Boldin and Davis at the same time. If there's a team who could it's Seattle; they're the best team in the league - but we don't have to score a ton of points, just move the ball (get that OL push all game, wear them down, pop Gore in the 4th quarter) hit a crucial big play, and be able to win late. That's been the formula for the team for weeks.
It's partially home team colored glasses; this is a soft analysis as opposed to relying on the metrics I always use. In the long run, you use those metrics; they demonstrate who the best teams are. Regardless of how this game turns out, the best team in the NFL in 2013 was Seattle.
But I'll say we beat them anyway 23-21.
Looking ahead, the NFC is giving 2 1/2 in the Super Bowl, consider that and consider the money line as well - there isn't a configuration after this weekend where you shouldn't feel comfortable with the NFC Champion winning the Super Bowl.
I have two more pieces coming for the other place later this week. I'll post links here.
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