2013 Supercontest - Week One

The Hilton Super Contest rules are that you pick five games per week all season.  So, this year, that will be the structure of my weekly NFL picks.  For those of you looking for advice, it will be 4 weeks before I get a feel for the season.

Baltimore +7.5 Denver loss
Carolina +4.5 Seattle loss
Jacksonville +4.5 KC loss
Indianapolis -10 Oakland loss
Tampa -3.5 NYJ loss

0-5

2013 NFL Predictions

AFC East
New England 12-4
Miami 7-9
NYJ 5-11
Buffalo 5-11

AFC North
Cincinnati 10-6 (over 8.5)
Baltimore 9-7
Pittsburgh 9-7
Cleveland 6-10

AFC South
Houston 11-5
Indianapolis 8-8
Tennessee 6-10
Jacksonville 5-11

AFC West
Denver 12-4
Kansas City 8-8
San Diego 6-10
Oakland 3-13 (under 5)

NFC East
Washington 10-6 (over 8.5)
New York 9-7
Philadelphia 7-9
Dallas 7-9

NFC North
Green Bay 11-5
Chicago 8-8
Detroit 7-9
Minnesota 6-10

NFC South
Atlanta 9-7
Tampa 9-7 (over 7.5)
Carolina 8-8
New Orleans 8-8 (under 9.5)

NFC West
Seattle 12-4 (over 10.5)
San Francisco 12-4
St Louis 6-10 (under 7.5)
Arizona 5-11

AFC Playoffs
Cincinnati d. Pittsburgh
Houston d. Baltimore
Denver d. Cincinnati
New England d. Houston

AFC Title: Denver d. New England

NFC Playoffs
Washington d. Tampa
San Francisco d. Atlanta
Seattle d. San Francisco
Green Bay d. Washington

NFC Title: Seattle d. Green Bay

Super Bowl 48
Denver d. Seattle

Opening College Football Picks 2013

I occasionally make selections on college football games.  It will be a month before I have a good feel. Historically, I am under .500 until say week 3,  maybe 4, and then start to move.

Rutgers v. Fresno St - under 55.5 (loss)
Utah v. Utah St - under 51.5 (loss)
FIU +23.5 Maryland (loss)
Western Kentucky +4.5 Kentucky (win)
Wash St. v. Auburn - under 62.5 (win)
UTSA +3.5 NMex (win)
LSU v. TCU  - under 51 (loss)
Boise +3 Washington (loss)

3-5

Athlete of the Month - August, 2013

July is here.

Mike Trout.  Runners-up:  Clayton Kershaw, Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera

Eight Months Down

January - Colin Kaepernick

February - Joe Flacco

March - LeBron James

April - Justin Upton

May-Clayton Kershaw

June - Patrick Kane  

July - Andy Murray

August- Mike Trout

AJ Jenkins

I'm glad we cut bait; an error that is really difficult to avoid in any walk of life is commitment bias; we love to throw good money after bad.

We didn't do that with AJ Jenkins - that speaks well of the organization.

But the Niners do need to own that they botched this pick; this isn't hindsight - here was my analysis at the time of the selection.

I didn't have AJ Jenkins in my Top 100.  If he has a better NFL career than Coby Fleener I invite Trent Baalke to criticize me in the most embarrassing of fashion.  But to my eye, this pick was error.

My season picks will be ready when timely.  My college top 25 is already up.