At the Sweet Sixteen - New Bracket Thoughts

Like many, my brackets are busted with Kansas getting bounced in Round 2 - but a good chunk of my smart bracket remains otherwise intact - regardless, here's how I'd call this weekend's games.

Midwest:
Northern Iowa over Michigan St.
Ohio St. over Tennessee
Ohio St. over Northern Iowa

Ohio State's the only team I had right, in both smart and fun brackets - I had them going to the Elite 8 and then losing to Kansas.  With as much confidence as you can have given the nature of the tournament thusfar, I'll take the Buckeyes to come out of the weekend - Northern Iowa was good this year, every bit the team that Michigan St was - their making it to the Sweet Sixteen is only a shock because of who they took out - given the Spartans injury situation, I'll take them to go one more successful round and root for them to make the final four.

Ohio St's giving 4 1/2 and that's a stay away: Northern Iowa's getting one and a half, and since I like them outright I like the number - but just a tiny bit.  None of the numbers this weekend is appetizing - like my thoughts when we got to the NFL playoffs, the lines are really too tight at this point in the season to present real opportunities. 

West:
Syracuse over Butler
Kansas St over Xavier
Kansas St over Syracuse

The only team I have left in my fun bracket is Xavier (the other 3 teams, BYU, Florida St, UTEP) - but the smart bracket has 3 of the 4 (I had Pitt and not X) - I'll stay with my original smart guy bracket result and go 'Cuse, KSt - and then Kansas St. to come out.  I'll root for Butler in the region.

Looking at the numbers, Butler's getting 6, which seems a little fat given the Syracuse injury.  KSt is giving 5, which is a stay away. 

East:
Kentucky over Cornell
West Virginia over Washington
Kentucky over West Virginia

I had Kentucky/West Virginia still here in both brackets (with Wisconsin in both, and Marquette/New Mexico as my 4th team).  The fun bracket had Wisconsin beating WVU - the smart bracket WVU beating Kentucky - and now I'm hedging my bets; like the West, I'll stick with my orginal Elite 8 matchup with Kentucky/West Virginia - but I'll bend to the poor Big East performance and go Kentucky to come out.  I'll be rooting Cornell and Washington. 

Looking at the numbers, WVA is giving five, which looks like a tick heavy given how well the Huskies (Pac 10, baby!) are playing right now.  Kentucky is giving 9 and that's a stay away game. 

South:
Duke over Purdue
Baylor over St. Marys
Duke over Baylor

In both brackets I had Duke beating Baylor. 

Now, here's where, despite what looks like a rough tournament run thusfar, I spin it in my direction.

If the Sweet Sixteen games turn out the way I expect - my smart bracket will have 7 of the 8 final teams left, only Kansas called incorrectly.  The lesson being that even in a Cinderella heavy tournament - it's smart guy chalk that carries the day at the end. 

St Marys is the team I'm most rooting for the rest of the way; I'm gonna root for Duke to beat Purdue. 

Baylor's giving 4, and since the game's in Houston I'd be inclined to give them.  Duke's giving 8 and I don't want any part of that game.

So - let's reset - my original fun guy final four:

Kansas
BYU
Wisconsin
Duke

My orginal smart guy final four

Kansas
Kansas St
West Virginia
Duke

And my current final four

Ohio St
Kansas St
Kentucky
Duke

We'll see how this works out.

I haven't written anything, so I'm largely making this up - but my plan is a Wrestlemania 26 preview for Wednesday; my 3 fantasy baseball drafts are over the weekend, I'll probably do something.  My baseball picks will be mid next week.

1st and Ten: The Weekly Tendown: March 14-20 2010

Dear Internet:

I have a cold. 

Your pal,

Jim

Okay - perhaps that's insufficient to satisfy my contractual obligation to provide you Issue 19 of The Tendown, your weekly look at the most important cultural happenings of the previous 7 days - but the fact is that I do have a cold, and that's going to mean a half assed job with this week's Tendown.  Unlike Last Week, when I discussed the Handsome Men's Club, Simple Jack comparing the Census to slavery, and found my new favorite phrase - The Rapture Generation.

But this week, this week I'm busted.  Busted, I tell you - busted like the very bestthing that happened over the past 7 days:

First: Cake v. Pie

After the first 7 games of the tournament Thursday, I got this text message alert from the NY Times:

NYT Men's NCAA Bracket:
Score: 52
Tourney Rank: 1
Sign up for groups @ ncaabracket.nytimes.com

That's first as in - my fun bracket was in first place in the NY Times pool halfway through the first day of the NCAA basketball tournament.  First.  First!  In the New York Times!  Everything's comin' up Milhouse!

Yeah, that's all gone now.  I had Kansas winning, so, thanks, Kansas. 

My brackets are officially thrown away. if I were more rugged, I could have used them as Kleenex.  That aside, the tournament now - with St Marys and Northern Iowa as officially minted Cinderellas - is wide open and far more interesting than even my most medicinal prognostication would have anticipated. 

But the busting of those brackets should not close our eyes to the limitless other bracket possibilites that the interwebs brought us this week - in fact, it's one of those Cake v. Pie which wins the crown as the best thing that happened over the past 7 days.  Let's play the game!

Birthday faces a nice contrast in styles in the 2nd round against Pound; that's like a Kentucky/Cornell game; Birthday is loaded with flashy highly recruited marquee athletes but Pound is small and white and fundamentally sound. So compact and scrappy is Pound - gritty and gutty - with veteran ingredients who just want it so badly!  Birthday goes over, pulling away late after a nip and tuck first half.  I'm going to take Carrot as the Cinderella coming out of its region, knocking off ICC in the second and doing it with surprising ease - then riding that wave in taking out Wedding, which benefited by a few terrible officials calls in defeating Red Velvet.  

In the pie bracket - Apple and Pumpkin make their way cleanly to their Elite 8 Match; silky smooth like a George Gervin finger roll, Pumpkin just can't miss from the field in that one, shooting 67% from the floor to earn a Final Four spot - but there - there it has to face an underseeded Juggernaut - Cheesecake - sort of like a Hakeem Olajuwon with dual citizenship - the taxonomic classification of cheesecake as not cake but custard pie creates one of the great second round matchups in tournament history - Cheesecake v. Cherry - Cheesecake v. Cherry, to use the language of wrestling, could be a main event in any promotion in the world - it's like if we got Phi Slamma Jamma against Hoya Paranoia in the second round of the '84 tourney - a half dozen blocked shots, a near brawl, Sleepy Floyd going coast-to-coast!  Cherry is up by eleven at the half, but a canny substitution by Cheesecake...

...putting in Cherry Cheesecake....

 Leads to a torrent of thunderdunks - including the shattering of a backboard (Send It In Jerome!) that rains delicious graham cracker crust along press row.  

That leaves us a Final Four for the Ages:  

1. Birthday v. 7. Carrot

2. Cheesecake v. 4. Pumpkin

Birthday's an overwhelming favorite, giving a dozen points at the closing line - but Carrot has two tide turning factors leading to one of the great semi-final upsets in sports history, included in the same conversation with the US beating the USSR in the '80 Olympic hockey semi-finals (Do you believe in Cream Cheese Frosting?  Yes!) the first is that in 2009, my birthday cake was a carrot cake - and that type of versatility (Look, Carrot can run up and down the floor with Birthday! - Carrot can play Birthday's style!) caught the overconfident Birthday flat-footed.  The second - and the factor that really wins the game down the stretch - is you have to share Birthday cake.  Most birthday cakes are consumed after someone has spit all over them after blowing out candles - then you have to hustle for a piece - and while there are presents - really it's commemoration of being a year closer to death.  If you think about it; celebrating birthdays is macabre; hey, let's gather around and sing: 

Happy Birthday to you

 Your Life Will End Soon,

Everyone in the Graveyard,

 Had a Birthday Party Too

Who needs that pressure?  I can huddle alone, in the dark, with my huge slab of carrot cake and watch my Will&Grace reruns and not bother anyone.  

Carrot wins - they go the final - where they meet Cheesecake, which solidly handled Pumpkin - can Carrot - which took out heavily favored Wedding and Birthday keep the glass slipper on against the monstrous Cheesecake?  

Yeah, no.  Cheesecake dominates from the opening tip - it's a coronation.  

Your winner in the great Cake v. Pie Tournament - Cheesecake.

After the jump - the rest of the Tendown

Brackets

Welcome to my process.

Essentially, I've got two brackets - a smart bracket where I pick some targeted upsets early and then mainly chalk late - and then one where I go for it.  The above is the latter.  Prior to tip, I'll have clean, large copies of both on the glass table in my living room; for at least the last two decades, I've gone out the morning after selection Sunday and purchased two USA Todays; even now, when all of my research is done online and it may well be the only day of the year I physically buy an issue - I still look forward to taking my scissors to cut out my giant brackets.  I'll be working during Thursday's early games, but save for the times when I'm with my lady type friend, you'll be able to find me on my couch, drinking canned diet lemonade (another Jividen tourney tradition) for much of the balance of the tournament.

If you're like me (I'm sorry) you get increasing pleasure out of feeling like yourself; part of its age, part life circumstance, but the experience of being me is increasingly foreign, I'm more estranged from myself today than I can ever recall being.  So when I have a "hey, this is how it feels to be me" sensation - like seeing my giant brackets on my glass table, feeling the bitterness of the diet lemonade in my throat - it's comforting.  I feel that same comfort on NFL draft weekend (we'll see what happens watching on DVR since I'll have work) and Wrestlemania; all coming right in a cluster over the next few weeks (not to mention Oscars last week and the fantasy baseball drafts, and then Opening Day - it's always a crazy flurry of paperwork at Camp Me) I always look at this time of the year as a bit of a mental homecoming.  And I need it in a hard way. 

Onto the brackets. 

Let's start with the Midwest, it's the bracket in which I have the most confidence; all the way through, the only difference between my fun bracket (again, that's pictured above) and my more scientific bracket is Tennessee/San Diego St in Round One; that's what I think of as a good upset pick for a pool - because the upsets you want to avoid are the ones that cost you multiple rounds - if you take San Diego and they lose - you're only losing in that round, as neither team is getting past Georgetown over the weekend.  Everything else is exactly the same, all the way to Kansas going to the final four.

The West is icky.  My smart guy bracket, like my fun bracket has Syracuse and Florida St up top - and BYU/Kansas St on the bottom.  But the middle of the bracket...the smart guy bracket has Butler and Vandy coming out of Round one; whereas the fun guy bracket has UTEP and Murray St - they both look like super close games to me, way closer than the seeds would indicate; and in a close round one game - why not root for the dogs?   The problem is someone's gotta go to the Sweet 16; my fun guy bracket says UTEP - my smart guy bracket has Butler.  Either will lose in the next round - as you can see, my fun guy bracket says they'll be losing to Florida St., who I have beating Syracuse in one of my more fun upset picks.  And then rounding out the fun - take a look at who I have Florida St losing to in the Elite 8 - it's BYU, who I have beating Xavier in the Sweet 16 after X takes out Pitt.  The smart guy bracket has Syracuse and Kansas St in that Elite 8 game (Kansas St to win) and I put K St over Pitt, Pitt over Xavier.  I really like BYU, I really don't like Pitt - and that Florida St/Syracuse game is exactly the kind of matchup begging to go for the underdog. 

On the other side - Kentucky, Texas, Temple, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Clemson, West Virginia is the same in the first round of both brackets.  Washington's in the fun bracket - Marquette in the bidness bracket.  And then that leads to the only difference in the next round - New Mexico in the bracket above - Marquette in the smart bracket.  The smart bracket's got Kentucky and West Virginia - but I do love me some Wisconsin, they're my East bracket version of BYU - and here's where I contradict the scan I'M CONTRADICTING THE SCAN! - I've got Wisconsin going to the final four (and not West Virginia, even though the bracket indicates otherwise) on the fun bracket - and - West Virginia on the business bracket.  No Kentucky!  No Kentucky! 

Down South - the only first round differences are Texas A&M and ODU in the smart bracket,  Utah St and Notre Dame in the fun bracket (I recognize I need to switch ODU and Notre Dame, I will)  It's A&M in the sweet sixteen in the smart bracket - Utah St, as you can see, in the fun bracket.  Everything else is the same - Duke beating Baylor in the elite 8, Baylor having knocked out Nova. 

In every version of every bracket, I've got Kansas beating Duke in the title game. 

I'm in a handful of pools - my most common final four includes Wisconsin and BYU.  I also like Utah St.  And if Florida St beats Syracuse I'll get my dance on.  My typical entry looks more fun than smart.  'Cause it's March, and when I'm feeling the most like myself - I pick fun over smart.

That part's totally untrue, no one would ever, at any point in my life, have called me more fun than smart, but I was so hoping to be able to carry that all the way through. 

Enjoy the hoops.

1st and Ten: The Weekly Tendown: March 7 - 13 2010

Dear Internet:

Hi.  This is the 18th Issue of the Weekly Tendown, my look at all the very most important cultural happenings from the previous 7 days - last week, I discussed reconciliation, my superfungame Moratorium, that my lady type friend has never seen the Karate Kid, and an atheist's plan to take care of pets following the rapture. 

I spent the majority of Tuesday in a waiting area; the television was turned to Fox News - so I got the full taste of their morning programming; and despite this allegedly being the "Fair and Balanced" portion of the Fox News day, it was easy to see the plutocratic propaganda bombarding a captive public.  I'll be looking at a few of the stories covered that morning here - but it was actually mid-Tuesday that brought us the very best thing that happened last week...

First: The Rapture Generation

Here's Limbaugh talking health care on Tuesday: I’ll just tell you this, if this passes and it’s five years from now and all that stuff gets implemented — I am leaving the country. I’ll go to Costa Rica.

I've never played the "if this happens, I'll leave the country" card (I think Alec Baldwin's threatened to walk a half dozen times) its a low percentage play; like the religious leaders who build their careers on the world ending at a particular time; it makes that subsequent Sunday service a little bit tricky.  Lots of people trying to buy back appliances on craigslist, I'm guessing.  Some sheepish "why did I have last day on earth sex with that" glances across the hymnals.  Last week there was an end of the world conference in Columbus, Ohio (hopefully one of the speakers strongly encouraged the flock to spend some of their final days on earth anywhere besides Columbus, Ohio).  Here's conference host Rod Parlsley:

"The last pages of your Bible read like the front pages of your paper."  "You are here because you've been chosen to live in this final hour."


Another speaker, Grant Jeffrey, with whom I'm fortunately unfamiliar was similarly on message:

 This is the most exciting generation to live since Jesus walked the earth. We are living in the rapture generation."

I'm gonna use that phrase going forward, The Rapture Generation.  Because it's not just about the people hiring atheists to take care of their pets, it's one of the motivating issues underlying policy debate.  Here's Jeffrey about global warming:

Global warming has a hidden agenda. It's a pretext to achieve a socialist global agenda where America will no longer be the America you grew up in.

Running out of oil is nonsense. They have found hidden oil 1,000 feet down-in the U.S.-enough to fuel the whole world for centuries. America and Canada are absolutely oil independent if they want to be.

That's the nexus - that connection between the ideology of the true believing evangelical and the corporate interests that use the passion of the faithful as rhetorical cover for their profit driven agenda - that drives so much of modern politics.  The same interests that have spent millions lobbying against climate change legislation have dropped millions in the effort to stop the inclusion of a public option (like, for example, the kind that Costa Rica has,  sorry Rush - but I'm uncertain where it is he'd like to go with a lesser level of socialized medicine than the United States - and more broadly, where it is he thinks he'll find a government more dedicated to protecting the interests of the powerful at the expense of the citizenry) - but its not protection of corporate profits that are part of the debate - if you spend a morning listening to Fox News, you won't get a discussion of CEO pay or the increased disparity between the wealthy and everyone else, or the profits earned by health insurance companies in 2009:

WellPoint Inc., UnitedHealth Group, Cigna Corp., Aetna Inc. and Humana Inc. posted combined profits of $12.2 billion, a 56% increase over calendar year 2008.



During the same period of time, the big five insurers covered 2.7 million fewer Americans.

Instead the discussion is about socialism.  And big government coming between doctors and patients. 

And, of course, how universal health care is anti-Christian.  Suck up some crazy and let the juices drip down your chin:

Some may ask what does God have to do with our health care system. For one, He’s created the government as an institution in society to do certain things. When we reject His design for government, in a sense, we’re rejecting Him.



In Obama’s worldview, our trust is in government not in God. A denial of how God designed and created our economic and social systems to actually work in the real world. The result? The abysmal failure of government control of health care in socialist models. From the USSR which takeover [sic] everything, including health care, to our neighbors to the north, Canada and European countries such as the UK where rationing and massive waiting periods are the order of the day.

There's a picture I found this week that, even more than Limbaugh leaving the country, is really the best thing that happened this week:

That's the message I got as I sat and watched Fox News for 4 hours.  It's the subtext of every story; it's the essence of the worldview.  Don't think.  It can only hurt the ballclub. 

After the jump - the rest of the Tendown:

The 50 Best Players in Major League Baseball - 2010 Version

Not career value - not "going forward, who would I most like" - just flat right now, for 2010, who am I saying are the 50 best players in baseball.

6 notes:

1. Pitchers are harder to forecast than position players - at the end of the year, my MVP votes may well be both pitchers (I voted for Greinke last year, for ex. in the AL) but arms aren't as consistent year to year as bats.

2. There's only one closer.  It's not who you expect.

3. Russell Martin was on the list, but near the bottom, before his injury - that's enough to boot him, let's say he misses the first couple of weeks and takes another couple of weeks to find his bat - since he's coming off a bad year anyway, he's out.

4. #51 is Cole Hamels.

5. This is not a fantasy board.  My fantasy drafts are top of the month.  I've given it zero thought so far.  I've got the Counterfactual to write.

6. My pre-season picks, with thoughts on over/unders will come prior to Opening Day.  Right now, I'm leaning Red Sox. 

Here we go:

1. Albert Pujols 1B St Louis
2. Hanley Ramirez SS Florida
3. Prince Fielder 1B Milwaukee
4. Chase Utley 2B Philadelphia
5. Joe Mauer C Minnesota
6. David Wright 3B NYM
7. Adrian Gonzalez 1B SD
8. Ryan Braun OF Milwaukee
9. Grady Sizemore OF Cleveland
10. Tim Lincecum P SFG
11. Matt Kemp OF LAD
12. Troy Tulowitzki SS Colorado
13. Mark Teixeira 1B NYY
14. Zack Greinke P KC
15. Roy Halladay P Philiadelphia
16. Evan Longoria 3B Tampa
17. Dustin Pedroia 2B Boston
18. CC Sabathia P NYY
19. Miguel Cabrera 1B Detroit
20. Alex Rodriguez 3B NYY
21. Andre Ethier OF LAD
22. Ryan Zimmerman 3B Washington
23. Matt Holliday OF St Louis
24. Brian McCann C Atlanta
25. Cliff Lee P Seattle
26. Jimmy Rollins SS Philadelphia
27. Yunel Escobar SS Atl
28. Dan Haren P Arizona
29. Felix Hernandez P Seattle
30. Adam Wainright P St Louis
31. Jayson Werth OF Philadelphia
32. Matt Cain P SFG
33. Ian Kinsler 2B Texas
34. Pablo Sandoval 3B SFG
35. Lance Berkman 1B Houston
36. Chipper Jones 3B Atlanta
37. Nick Markakis OF Baltimore
38. Justin Verlander P Detroit
39. Joakim Soria RP Kansas City
40. John Lester P Boston
41. Johann Santana P NYM
42. Josh Beckett P Bosto
43. Chris Carpenter P St Louis
44. Aaron Hill 2B Toronto
45. Josh Johnson P Florida
46. Ben Zobrist 2B Tampa
47. Ubaldo Jimenez P Colorado
48. Carlos Beltran OF NYM
49. Hunter Pence OF Houston
50. Yadier Molina C St Louis

Edited notes - I wound up replacing Jurrjens and Gallardo with Carpenter and Johnson - the injury risks of the latter two kept me from their inclusion originally, but I've decided to cut a little bit the other way.  Javvy Vazquez was better than all of them last year.  And is Tommy Hanson better than all of them by year's end - is that an end of 2011 thing?  I still might swap out Pence for Victorino or Zobrist for Uggla.  Berkman's gonna miss a couple of weeks, I should knock him down the list a couple of spots - I've already dropped Martin and Reyes from the list entirely, I'll put Reyes back by opening day if he's active.  I like Joey Votto and would like it if he played for my team. Right now, I'm weighing Victor Martinez's bat against Molina's glove for that last spot.